Reëlection Watch: May 19, 2012

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Today marks the sec­ond semi-​​monthly edi­tion of Reëlec­tion Watch. This time, I’m going to show another model on hand­i­cap­ping the race, using the Cook Par­ti­san Vot­ing Index (PVI).

So, how are things going for the Pres­i­dent lately?

(more…)

Open Mic May 18

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Disco Queen Donna Summer

We lost a cou­ple more this week: Donna Sum­mer and Mary Kennedy. In response to a Face­book executive’s deci­sion to renounce his US cit­i­zen­ship in order to avoid pay­ing taxes on today’s ini­tial pub­lic offer­ing, two Sen­a­tors have intro­duced the Ex-​​PATRIOT Act. A ton of evi­dence was released in the case of George Zimmerman’s shoot­ing of Trayvon Mar­tin. Births of non-​​Caucasians exceeded that of Cau­casians in the United States for the first time since the days of British colonization.

And it’s Fri­day, so it’s your day to choose sub­jects. Chat away!

Don’t see an arti­cle on a par­tic­u­lar topic, but want to talk about it some­where? This is Open Mic. Talk about what­ever you want, but stay respectful.

We cre­ate a new Open Mic every week to give a clean slate, but feel free to add to this topic at any time.

Democrats as Job Creators?

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For­mer Michi­gan Gov­er­nor Jen­nifer Granholm

Over at Politico, for­mer Michi­gan Gov­er­nor Jen­nifer Granholm argues in an OpEd that Demo­c­ra­tic Pres­i­dents have a bet­ter record of job cre­ation dur­ing the last 51 years (1961-​​present) than Repub­li­can Presidents.

Democ­rats have held the Oval Office for 23 of those 51 years.

She cites a BGOV Barom­e­ter study by Bloomberg, which shows (for exam­ple) that if one were to invest $1,000 in a hypo­thet­i­cal Stan­dard & Poor’s 500 index fund only when Demo­c­ra­tic Pres­i­dents were in power, start­ing in 1961, that would be worth $10,920 today. (more…)

Mean Girls

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Remem­ber over last year or two, how Repub­li­cans repeat­edly threat­ened finan­cial dis­as­ter? Like high school drama queens in some teenage soap opera, they man­u­fac­tured one cri­sis after another. We’re on the verge of another series of show­downs. Get your score­cards ready.

Grover Norquist at a political conference in O...
High School Diva

To recap the story so far

We had the debate over extend­ing the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2010. Repub­li­cans insisted we needed to main­tain those tax cuts, espe­cially for the wealthy, or else in a fit of piqué the spoiled rich kids would pick up their mar­bles and stop cre­at­ing jobs. Part of the deal for extend­ing the cuts included expan­sions of Pell grants for col­lege stu­dents and a tem­po­rary reduced pay­roll tax for America’s work­ing people.

Then, in April of 2011, Amer­ica found itself on the verge of a gov­ern­ment shut­down. 800,000 fed­eral work­ers came within a hair’s breadth of being tem­porar­ily out of work. The spend­ing appro­pri­a­tions finally passed, after an unnec­es­sary soap-​​opera-​​like drama. Then we had the debt ceil­ing debate the fol­low­ing sum­mer. Repub­li­can reluc­tance to raise the debt limit to finance the spend­ing they’d already approved resulted in the first-​​ever down­grade of the US credit rat­ing. The even­tual deal included the cre­ation of a “Super­com­mit­tee” charged with find­ing nearly two tril­lion dol­lars in addi­tional debt reduction.

The Super­com­mit­tee failed, due to Repub­li­cans refusal to con­sider even one dime in addi­tional taxes. (Thank you, Grover Norquist, the de facto czar of America’s tax pol­icy.) This means we have mas­sive auto­matic bud­get cuts set to kick in begin­ning in January.

Many of these bad deals are com­ing back to haunt us. The sequel approaches. (more…)

Why Financial Companies are Stupid

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My losses were only THIS big.”

It seems to hap­pen far too often, doesn’t it? Finan­cial com­pa­nies make bad choices on invest­ments, lead­ing them ulti­mately to implode. Of course, it’s not the com­pa­nies mak­ing those deci­sions; despite what some would have you believe, they’re not peo­ple. No, it’s employ­ees of those com­pa­nies mak­ing those decisions.

Yet, in order for those employ­ees to have con­trol over enough money to make head­lines (such as JPMorgan’s two bil­lion dol­lar loss last week), they need a good enough track record to merit such broad con­trol. How do they get it?

The answer may just sur­prise you. (more…)

No, No Puede

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Dur­ing the 2008 elec­tion cam­paign, then-​​Senator Barack Obama adopted a Span­ish lan­guage slo­gan that was co-​​opted from Cesar Chavez and the United Farm Work­ers: “¡Sí se puede!” which roughly trans­lated means the same as his Eng­lish slo­gan: “Yes, We Can!”

Let’s exam­ine the state of play (estado de juego) for the His­panic vote in the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial elec­tion.

In 2008, 67 per­cent of the His­panic vote went to Sen­a­tor Obama, while 31 per­cent went to Sen­a­tor John McCain. This mar­gin in the His­panic vote helped Obama win the bat­tle­ground states of Nevada, Col­orado and New Mex­ico. (more…)

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