Archive for May 7, 2011
Riding Assassination to Reëlection?
231Editor’s note: We’re pleased to announce that Bart DePalma will be contributing articles to Logarchism, expressing the conservative libertarian viewpoint on events of the day.

Celebration outside the White House after the President announced that Osama bin Laden had been killed.
Progressives were literally dancing in the streets upon the news that President Barack Obama ordered a SEAL team to successfully assassinate Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Not that they particularly care about bin Laden. Progressives are instead grasping for any good news to boost the cratering reëlection prospects of their President.
A cold splash of perspective is in order. Let us compare President George W. Bush’s job approval bump after the Army captured Saddam Hussein with that of Obama after the SEALs killed OBL:
Both the Bush and Obama events occurred in the middle of a CNN multi-day rolling poll. Obama’s job approval inched up by 1% to 52% from the day before, while Bush’s job approval soared 9% to 63%.
Factoring in all polling, Obama appears to be receiving a 5% bump from offing bin Laden, compared to a 15% bump for Bush from capturing Saddam.
The electoral map of the 2004 Presidential election. Blue represents John Kerry, while red represents George W. Bush
More importantly for this discussion, the Bush bump did not get close to assuring the President a landslide or even comfortable reëlection margin. The Bush bump lasted all of seven weeks. Despite enjoying a galloping economy near full employment, President Bush won reëlection against a mediocre Dem candidate with only 50.7% of the vote.
This begs the question of what are Obama’s reëlection chances with a lesser “rally round the president” bump while the nation suffers from a seemingly never-ending Great Recession with the highest long-term employment since the Great Depression?
Progressives, good luck on that plan to ride assassination to reëlection.
Bart DePalma is an attorney, a veteran, a writer, and an active member of the Tea Party. He publishes the Citizen Pamphleteer blog (where this article is cross-posted) and his new book, Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste—Barack Obama and the Evolution of American Socialism, is scheduled to be released during the Fall of 2011.




