Riding Assassination to Reëlection?

Editor’s note: We’re pleased to announce that Bart DePalma will be con­tribut­ing arti­cles to Log­a­rchism, express­ing the con­ser­v­a­tive lib­er­tar­ian view­point on events of the day.

Cel­e­bra­tion out­side the White House after the Pres­i­dent announced that Osama bin Laden had been killed.

Pro­gres­sives were lit­er­ally danc­ing in the streets upon the news that Pres­i­dent Barack Obama ordered a SEAL team to suc­cess­fully assas­si­nate Osama bin Laden in Pak­istan. Not that they par­tic­u­larly care about bin Laden.  Pro­gres­sives are instead grasp­ing for any good news to boost the cra­ter­ing reëlec­tion prospects of their President.

A cold splash of per­spec­tive is in order.  Let us com­pare Pres­i­dent George W. Bush’s job approval bump after the Army cap­tured Sad­dam Hus­sein with that of Obama after the SEALs killed OBL:

Both the Bush and Obama events occurred in the mid­dle of a CNN multi-​​day rolling poll. Obama’s job approval inched up by 1% to 52% from the day before, while Bush’s job approval soared 9% to 63%.

Fac­tor­ing in all polling, Obama appears to be receiv­ing a 5% bump from off­ing bin Laden, com­pared to a 15% bump for Bush from cap­tur­ing Saddam.

The elec­toral map of the 2004 Pres­i­den­tial elec­tion. Blue rep­re­sents John Kerry, while red rep­re­sents George W. Bush

More impor­tantly for this dis­cus­sion, the Bush bump did not get close to assur­ing the Pres­i­dent a land­slide or even com­fort­able reëlec­tion mar­gin. The Bush bump lasted all of seven weeks. Despite enjoy­ing a gal­lop­ing econ­omy near full employ­ment, Pres­i­dent Bush won reëlec­tion against a mediocre Dem can­di­date with only 50.7% of the vote.

This begs the ques­tion of what are Obama’s reëlec­tion chances with a lesser “rally round the pres­i­dent” bump while the nation suf­fers from a seem­ingly never-​​ending Great Reces­sion with the high­est long-​​term employ­ment since the Great Depression?

Pro­gres­sives, good luck on that plan to ride assas­si­na­tion to reëlection.

Bart DePalma is an attor­ney, a vet­eran, a writer, and an active mem­ber of the Tea Party. He pub­lishes the Cit­i­zen Pam­phle­teer blog (where this arti­cle is cross-​​posted) and his new book, Never Let A Cri­sis Go To Waste—Barack Obama and the Evo­lu­tion of Amer­i­can Social­ism, is sched­uled to be released dur­ing the Fall of 2011.