Hochul: Pals Around with Mus­lims, Has Funny Name, Doesn’t Live in Her District

Much will be made of tonight’s result in New York’s 26th Con­gres­sional Dis­trict, but in the end, it’s just another spe­cial elec­tion with results spe­cific to that dis­trict and the needs and vot­ing pat­terns of that par­tic­u­lar constituency.

Before tonight’s elec­tion, New York’s 26th Dis­trict had a Cook Polit­i­cal Par­ti­san Vot­ing Index (PVI) of R+6, indi­cat­ing a Republican-​​leaning district.

Erie County Clerk Kath­leen “Kathy” Hochul is now the Representative-​​elect for the 26th Con­gres­sional Dis­trict of the State of New York. Oddly, Hochul does not even live in the dis­trict she rep­re­sents, and there­fore could not vote for herself.

Pho­tographed Shirt­less Lee

The seat was opened when its for­mer occu­pant, Repub­li­can Chris Lee, abruptly resigned after it was revealed he had sent a shirt­less photo to a woman who was not his wife.

At this writ­ing, with 607627 precincts in, Hochul has 48,530 votes (47%), Repub­li­can Jane Cor­win has 43,836 (43%), and poten­tial spoiler and peren­nial grumpy old man can­di­date Jack Davis, run­ning on the Tea Party line, is at 9,495 (9%). Green Party Can­di­date Ian Mur­phy received 1,130 votes (1%). It looks like Davis vot­ers had lit­tle impact on the out­come of the elec­tion, since it was not clear whether Davis would drain votes from Hochul or Cor­win but prob­a­bly didn’t pull more than 34 of his votes from either.

These results are in good align­ment with the polls, as reported by Michael Weiss ear­lier. The Siena Col­lege poll had Hochul at 42%, Cor­win at  38%, and Davis at  12%. In the con­tem­po­ra­ne­ous Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling data, Hochul was at 44%, Cor­win at 38%, and Davis at 13%.

Tellingly, the vot­ers polled by PPP held a 51%/37% favorable/​unfavorable view of Hochul. Views of Cor­win were neg­a­tive, at 34/​52, and even more so for Davis, at 2362. Under those cir­cum­stances, it was clearly hard for Cor­win to gain much trac­tion with the 13% of vot­ers who had not yet made up their mind about her in the PPP poll. (Pres­i­dent Obama has a 42% approve, 51% dis­ap­prove rat­ing in the same pop­u­la­tion, so this is not a par­tic­u­larly Democrat-​​friendly group.)

About a fifth of the vot­ers in the Siena Col­lege poll named Medicare as the most impor­tant issue affect­ing their vot­ing preference.

While pun­dits on both sides will try to make much of this, my read of the num­bers says that Hochul was sim­ply bet­ter liked by the vot­ers than Corwin.

It appears that as pre­dicted by Nate Sil­ver, many of Davis’ vot­ers aban­doned his hope­less cam­paign at the last minute.