Archive for June 6, 2011
Statistician Nate Silver crunched the numbers, and found that there is no particular correlation between the change in unemployment over a President’s entire first term and his chances of reëlection to a second term. Thus, President Obama’s reëlection chances do not appear as daunting as today’s 9.1% unemployment rate suggest.
The problem with Mr. Silver’s analysis is that voters do not survey the net change over an entire term and award their vote accordingly. Rather, they consider where unemployment and the rest of the economy is heading at the time they cast their ballot. Thus, the better way of measuring the effect of unemployment on reëlection is the change from the prior high or low in unemployment during the middle of the President’s term to the unemployment on election day. (more…)
Events in Yemen have taken a dramatic and unexpected turn as wounded President Ali Abdullah Saleh has stepped down, leaving the country in the hands of his former Vice-President and current Acting President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi.
The United States and other nations have increasingly become frustrated with Saleh as street protests and the constant rot of corruption has taken a toll on his country. Yemen has long been known as a training base for al-Qaida and threatens to become the next “failed state”, if it has not achieved that status already. As recently as last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed frustration with Saleh’s erratic intransigence.
President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power. The government of Yemen must address the legitimate will of the people.
— US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, May 22, 2011.
We cannot expect this conflict to end unless President Saleh and his government move out of the way to permit the opposition and civil society to begin a transition to political and economic reform.
— US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, June 1, 2011.