Josh Mar­shall help­fully lays out the four options for resolv­ing the debt ceil­ing fight…and why each seems impos­si­ble. He calls them:

 The Grand Bar­gain: This was the $4T in cuts pro­posed by Obama, enter­tained by John Boehner and rejected by Eric Can­tor because it con­tained some mod­est rev­enue increases. It would have done the most to seri­ously address the deficit, but fails the Grover Norquist test.

The Less Grand Bar­gain: This gives Obama $2.4T in short-​​term bor­row­ing author­ity to raise the debt ceil­ing, but Repub­li­cans insist every penny be matched by off­set­ting cuts over the next decade, with no rev­enue increases. Obama is will­ing to con­sider this, but not if all sav­ing is achieved through cuts. This one appears to be a non-​​starter.

La Petite Deal: $1.5 T increase in the debt ceil­ing, off­set dol­lar for dol­lar by deep cuts that every­body already basi­cally agrees to. How­ever, this car­ries the nation only for one year, and means the next debt ceil­ing fight occurs right before the pres­i­den­tial elec­tion… some­thing nobody wants.

 The McConnell-​​Reid Escape Hatch (which is so com­plex I won’t even try to sum­ma­rize, I’ll just quote Josh Marshall):

 McConnell and Reid are talk­ing about rais­ing the debt limit, poten­tially into 2013, by mix­ing the spend­ing cuts in “Le Petite Deal” with a com­mit­ment to con­vene a Con­gres­sional com­mit­tee tasked with cut­ting tril­lions from the deficit — includ­ing from enti­tle­ment pro­grams. If the panel passed such a plan, the leg­is­la­tion would be guar­an­teed votes in the House and Sen­ate before year’s end. The exact con­tours of the McConnell-​​Reid plan are still being worked out, but it’s the only pro­posal out there that would give every­body the cover they think they need, and result in the spend­ing cuts both par­ties say they want. But it would either require Repub­li­cans to relent on the dollar-​​for-​​dollar stan­dard, or else a bit of chore­og­ra­phy: The cuts, aides say, could be paired with a pro­ce­dural mech­a­nism that would also allow Repub­li­cans to vote to block a higher debt limit. But Obama would be able to veto that move, thus assur­ing that (a) spend­ing gets cut, (b) Repub­li­cans claim to have opposed rais­ing the debt limit, (c) Democ­rats claim to have voted for deficit reduc­tion, and (d) the coun­try avoids default.…at a price unknown.

So there are the cur­rent options. What do you think the final deal is going to look like.. and why?