Governing through Reason
The Debt Limit is Now
A piece of history is happening right now, tonight, this weekend. The battle over whether America will default on its obligations, for the first time in history, is coming to a head. On the one side are Republicans, who want to tie a restructure of Federal spending to raising the debt ceiling. On the other are the Democrats, who insist there should be revenue increases if there are to be spending cuts. In the middle are a variety of contradictory polls on how the American people feel about it.
This is the place to discuss these historic events, the political strategies, the consequences for the future of America and of the world.
Related articles
- Boehner breaks off U.S. debt limit talks (business.financialpost.com)
- Dueling Debt Ceiling Polls (andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com)
- America’s Magic Mountain (whitelocust.wordpress.com)
- Obama takes his ‘raise the debt ceiling’ campaign on the road (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
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@DC… He projected weeks ago that this discussion would be reduced to enacting a clean debt ceiling bill. He was right.
And a clean bill is exactly what Obama asked for at the very beginning… and the swaggering Republican hostage-takers said he was never going to get it without making significant concessions to them.
Now they’re running around wetting their pants, terrified what the markets are going to do on Monday.
Amazing to watch.
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filistro,
I’m glad you brought up Lawrence O’Donnell’s analysis, because the politics of it, and the strategies involved, are vital to what happens.
All sides involved have principles and constituencies. That is the greatest part of what will determine what happens. As much as we like or don’t like that fact, it’s part of life.
I think President Obama has handled this masterfully. I think the Republicans have made grave mistakes — but those mistakes were in the hopper years ago, and are coming to roost now. This will affect America’s future. It’s part of the reality of the situation. It’s one of the things I want to talk about, in addition to the importance of raising the debt limit.
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#9 written by Gator 1 year ago
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#10 written by Gator 1 year ago
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Gator… please stop trying to turn this into a betting site. That is not our function. There are lots of other places on the Web for people to bet on politics if they want to, but this is not one of them.
Friendly wagers involving bragging rights are one thing. When you start talking about online money bets, you are moving into an area that is illegal in most of the United States and we want no part of it.
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Gator, what is it you want to say about O’Donnell? Okay, maybe he’s to the left of me (he’s not), but what has that got to do with his analysis or with the strategies that have been used in this debate, or with the need to increase the debt limit?
I ask because I am honestly curious about your thoughts. I don’t mean those as rhetorical questions.
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#14 written by Gator 1 year ago
Sorry Fili. How about a personal services contract wager? Like slave for a day? LOL! That would be fun!
Neither he, nor anyone on either side of the issue that is that partisan, is going to be able to make a reasoned evaluation of the subject. You cannot approach anything from such an acute position and have a true perspective on the whole. When you look at anything myopically and from only one end, you cannot see the broader view. My ‘point’ was that O’D thinking Obama had done something significant is akin to Rush Limbaugh liking something Dick Cheney did. So what? Their opinions are so biased as to be meaningless.
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#15 written by Gator 1 year ago
And BTW Fili, I wasn’t trying to turn it into a betting site. I wanted to see if anyone who is so sure of the President and his re-election, so happy about todays press conference, someone who thinks he is something special would actually risk anything at all on their belief, or if it is all just noise and bluster. Question is really rhetorical because we all know the answer.
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#16 written by Max aka Birdpilot 1 year ago
O’Donnell, weeks in advance, predicted to the day the announcement that Trump was not running.
O’Donnell has flatly predicted Palin will not run. That if she actually declares, it will only be pro forma to aid in her cult of personality and boost her money making potential.
Those who scoff at his analytic skills, partisan or not, should heed those facts.
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@Gator… My ‘point’ was that O’D thinking Obama had done something significant is akin to Rush Limbaugh liking something Dick Cheney did. So what? Their opinions are so biased as to be meaningless.
I take your point.… but the thing is, the public has certain commonsense preconceptions that all of us bring to various situations. For instance, if people are in serious negotiations and one party “walks out” while the other remains at the table, still willing to talk… we tend to consider the walking-out party unreasonable. The Republicans have now walked out on these talks TWICE… first Eric Cantor, then John Boehner.
Second, we have our own feelings about demands. If one party moves significantly, is even prepared to consider painful concessions that anger his own side, while the other just keeps stubbornly refusing to budge off a predetermined position, we consider that second party unreasonable.
And if somebody’s unreasonableness results in potential danger and damage to the economic well-being of every single person in the country, it’s not such a reach to make a determination about whom the public is most likely to blame.
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#19 written by rgbact 1 year ago
Lawrence O’Donnell makes DC look like a John Bircher. >
Not only that.…he’s obssesed with the fantasy football aspect of this crap (who’s winning/losing). Very Dick Morrisish. Even Chris VanHollen smacked him upside the head tonite and basically said “dude, this ain’t some game”
Massive win for the Tea Party so far. Even liberals on MSNBC tonite admit all these issues are playing on the Tea Party side of the field. As long as thats happening–Obama can do all the “presidenting” he wants. Obama can only dream of getting the public so focused on something like an amnesty bill.
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#20 written by Max aka Birdpilot 1 year ago
or if it is all just noise and bluster. Question is really rhetorical because we all know the answer.
As we have discussed before, there are outlets for political wagering if a point is wished to be proved.
When it comes to noise and bluster, Gator reminds me of our old Brangus bull, snorting and pawing and raising dust. But when it’s over, all that’s left behind is the scatological remnants.
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rgbact
Not only that.…he’s obssesed with the fantasy football aspect of this crap (who’s winning/losing).
O’Donnell is a political analyst and strategist. Of course he talks about that aspect. What’s your point?
Massive win for the Tea Party so far.
In what way? What have they accomplished? And how is this comment different from O’Donnell’s concern about “winning/losing”?
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@rgb.. Even liberals on MSNBC tonite admit all these issues are playing on the Tea Party side of the field.
That’s only a “win” if the public validates the issues. If you’re fighting hard for something the people want and you command the play, you’ll certainly be a winner.
But if you’re fighting hard for something YOU want, but the general public finds upsetting or frightening… than you will be tagged with the blame, and you will pay for it.
I think things are looking very perilous for the Tea Party right now. If the debt limit comes close enough that real repercussions begin to happen (layoffs, interest rate hikes, stock market crashes) then the public will be after the Tea Party with pitchforks and torches. On the other hand, if this gets pulled out of the fire just n time to avert catastrophe, the Tea Party will be furious with the Republicans for having “‘caved” on significant cuts.
It looks to me like a “heads I win, tails you lose” situation… and Obama holds all the cards.
You’ll have to explain to me how you read it otherwise, because I’m just not seeing it.
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Here’s a political aspect.
The President called the Speaker at about 10:00 last night. The Speaker did not return the President’s phone call until 5:30 this evening, after the markets closed. The return call was to tell the President that the Speaker was pulling out of the negotiations.
The politics of that are immense and important. It speaks of cowardice on the part of the Speaker.
The President called a news conference almost immediately to explain to the American public why the Speaker had walked out of negotiations. I’m grateful to know.
To the Speaker’s credit, he insisted that the debt ceiling must and will be raised. I hope our conservative friends were paying attention, and will stop insisting that this doesn’t have to happen.
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#24 written by rgbact 1 year ago
O’Donnell is a political analyst and strategist. Of course he talks about that aspect. What’s your point?
Thats fine. I like that stuff. He probably shouldn’t be asking politicians questions about strategy though. “Dude, Obama’s compromising presser will really help with the soccer mom vote”. Rather offensive–although we know its political reality.
In what way? What have they accomplished? And how is this comment different from O’Donnell’s concern about “winning/losing”?
Accomplishment isn’t really the point. Getting your issues debated is. If unemployment and deficits are major issues in Nov—that spells disaster for Democrats. Obama needs to change the conversation back to the Ryan plan or killing BinLaden or Green Jobs or some other winning issue.
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rgbact
Accomplishment isn’t really the point. Getting your issues debated is. If unemployment and deficits are major issues in Nov—that spells disaster for Democrats. Obama needs to change the conversation back to the Ryan plan or killing BinLaden or Green Jobs or some other winning issue.
I’m glad you don’t think the Teapers should accomplish anything. I agree.
As far as the rest of it — yes, the Ryan plan and bin Laden and green jobs are all vital, winning issues. Accomplishments. Of which President Obama has many. And the Teapers seem to have none.
Well, the Teapers say we shouldn’t raise the debt limit, and are pushing to have America default on its obligations. I think that’s a winning debate for the Democrats as well.
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#26 written by Max aka Birdpilot 1 year ago
rgb,
I notice your silence on the real spending cuts in HR 2560 on the other thread.
Can’t find any?
Of course not. They’re NOT THERE!
So stop the BS defending the partisan line and start to see the game that fili and others are trying to point out to you!
It’s a loser for the plurality, if not the majority of Americans. Regardless your personal position, if you have brains enough to pound sand, you should see it. Otherwise you are in for some serious disappointment.
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O’Donnell, weeks in advance, predicted to the day the announcement that Trump was not running.
O’Donnell has flatly predicted Palin will not run.
Soooo, O’Donnell has a keen grasp of the obvious ie I predicted at 538.com over (2) years ago mama grizzly would not run, although in the minority to be sure w/the relative easy call er palin was only interested in $$$, again a quick study. And of course Nate disagreed. Oops!
And of course the Donald has/had been All Hat, No Cattle from day one, but he got his (15) minutes which is all he really wanted.
And to be fair, O’Donnell like fili had this somewhat delusional reasoning re: no pulse timmy and his chance to be the Rep nominee. Again, oops ie not soooo clairvoyant, eh.
>
And to be totally fair, I myself
predicted Gen. Petraeus would be Obama’s next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs over (2) years ago ~ ok, ok, I was off by a tad …So let’s recap, O’Donnell has/had a keen grasp of the obvious re: palin/trump and 100% wrong re: timmy.
And Nate who usually is spot on w/his analysis couldn’t see the forest for the trees re: mama grizzly, as again, she was a quick study, especially after she quit her high stress job
of governing 700k ~ you bet’cha.Bart predicted Reid in NV and Bennet in CO were toast over a year before they were re-elected. Again, all I ask for is consistency and Bartles is consistently wrong, god love him.
carry on
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#28 written by Armchair Warlord 1 year ago
Now, what I find most interesting here is the very real threat of an outright schism in the Republican Party over this issue. The Tea Party wing is totally unwilling to back down and will revolt if Boehner et al come back on Monday with a one-page bill raising the debt ceiling and try to whip votes for it. Hence why they’ve held out for so long and dug in so deeply — it’s well-known that the House Republican leadership cannot control many of these new Tea Party reps and they appear to have been desperately holding out for a deal to preserve the integrity of their party.
If the eighty-odd teabaggers in the House revolt en masse then Mr. B is left with 160-odd votes left in an atmosphere of every man for himself. I think the Democrats will have very little trouble finding thirty or so RINOs to vote for their debt limit increase bill in that case. And then it’s all over but the crying.
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Armchair Warlord
Now, what I find most interesting here is the very real threat of an outright schism in the Republican Party over this issue. The Tea Party wing is totally unwilling to back down and will revolt if Boehner et al come back on Monday with a one-page bill raising the debt ceiling and try to whip votes for it.
Yes, this is going to be fascinating to watch and to see how it affects the party, and how the voters react in the next election. The monster that the Republicans invited into their midst has the capacity now to tear the party in two.
I think the Democrats will have very little trouble finding thirty or so RINOs to vote for their debt limit increase bill in that case. And then it’s all over but the crying.
This is one very likely scenario. A clean debt limit bill (or something like the McConnell-Reid compromise) passes the Senate, and then passes the House with mostly Democratic votes and a few Republicans willing to risk the wrath of Norquist and the Teapers for the good of the nation.
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Even Republicans have stopped posturing on the need to raise the debt ceiling.
“The Tea Party is effectively playing Russian roulette with the bond market and they will, with certainty, lose,” Cooper said. Jefferies is one of 20 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. Federal Reserve.
(Christian Cooper is head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading in New York at Jefferies & Co.)
All of the Congressional leadership, in both Houses, now agrees we need to raise the debt limit. The only holdouts are the certifiably insane and those playing to their base of sociopaths.
Let’s hope the Republicans back off from their other inflexible demands as well.
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Hey DC!!!
Looks like we were right…
Poor, poor John Boehner. I wouldn’t be him right now for all the tea in… oooh.
(Perhaps not the best aphorism, under the circumstances…)
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Absolutely, filistro. Boehner has had his conversion. He realizes that if the debt limit is not raised, Very Bad Things Will Happen, and he will get the blame.
It is amazing to have watched his conversion. He’s gone from being okay if America defaults, to now wanting to make certain that he gets the credit for raising the debt limit, and that President Obama doesn’t.
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#33 written by Jean 1 year ago
An interesting perspective from a Republican — an old school real Republican (but also AKA a RINO according to the radical right wing):
“There’s blame for all in the debt talk breakdown.
The president walked away from Simpson-Bowles, declined to present plans to reach long-term budget balance, etc. etc. etc.
But in the argy-bargy, keep this in mind: the debt problem has become a debt crisis for one reason only: because Republicans put the threat of debt default on the table.
That never needed to happen.
House Republicans could have kept the debt ceiling issue wholly separate from the budget cut issue.
Instead, Republicans put the gun on the table. They raised the menace of deliberate default in a way it has not been raised before.
Then, having issued the threat, they discovered that their own core supporters would not allow the gun to be holstered again.
They issued demands they knew could not be met, for budget cuts much bigger than Republicans ever enacted when they had the power to enact them. They cocked the weapon. And now here we are: the demands are unmet and Republicans find themselves facing a horrible choice between yielding on their exorbitant demands or pushing the United States into financial upheaval.”
http://www.frumforum.com/stumbling-toward-disaster
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Jean,
Frumm is right.
Republicans thought they could extort anything they wanted to, because a) the prospect of not raising the debt ceiling is too horrible to contemplate, and b) they honestly believed President Obama is a wuss and would cave.
But the President called their bluff.
Republicans now have to decide between, on the one hand, doing the most horrible thing to America that can be done, short of a nuclear attack (and being held responsible for having done it!), or, on the other, looking like wusses themselves for having caved in.
They can destroy America’s economy, and be held responsible for having done so. Or they can raise the debt limit, and be condemned by the voters with pitchforks and torches that they riled up as a publicity stunt.
The lesson here is, Do not take hostages, if you are not really prepared to kill them.
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#36 written by Jean 1 year ago
dc,
Agreed. Have you read Andrew Sullivan’s indictment of the GOP:
“The Republican refusal to countenance any way to raise revenues to tackle the massive debt incurred largely on their watch and from a recession which started under Obama’s predecessor makes one thing clear. They are not a political party in government; they are a radical faction that refuses to participate meaningfully in the give and take the Founders firmly believed should be at the center of American government. They are not conservatives in this sense. They are anarchists.
*
Their fiscal anarchism has now led to their threat to destabilize and possibly upend the American and global economy because they refuse to compromise an inch. They control only one part of the government, and yet they hold all of it hostage. I cannot believe they are prepared to allow the US to default rather than give an inch toward responsibility. Except I should believe it by now. Everything I have written about them leads inexorably to this moment.Opposing overwhelming public opinion on the need for a mixed package of tax hikes and spending cuts, drawing the president into a position far to the right of the right of his party, and posturing absurdly as fiscal conservatives, they are in fact anti-tax and anti-government fanatics, and this is their moment of maximal destruction.
I read George Will’s retread column from the 1980s today and simply cannot fathom what he is talking about. Except, I fear I can. He is channeling Mitch McConnell. Boehner and McConnell have one goal and it is has nothing to do with the economy. It is destroying this president and this presidency. They are clearly calculating that the economic devastation their vandalism could create will so hurt the economy that it could bring them back to power through the wreckage. And they will use every smear, every lie, every canard possible to advance this goal.
Coming from abroad, this country seems as if it is beyond dysfunctional. It looks like a banana republic on the verge of economic collapse.”
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I thought this was a pretty good summary, with analysis, of where we are now:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59731.html
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With time running out, Republicans continue to posture rather than try to do something in America’s best interest.
I don’t feel sorry for these intransigent ideologues, who invited monsters into their home for crass political purposes. The Tea Party and Grover Norquist cannot compromise, because to do so will reveal a) their propaganda was nothing more than hypocritical partisan noise, and 2) their interests are to favor the moneyed élites rather than the people of America.
I don’t see the Republican endgame. I am confidant that President Obama will not allow America to default on our obligations. But I cannot see how the Republicans can come out of this as an intact political party. If they do not bend, they will break.
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#40 written by Max aka Birdpilot 1 year ago
I’ll say it again:
The GOP/Tea Party has no desire to govern, they wish only to rule.
The Republicans of generations past would be absolutely sick. The new crowd doesn’t deserve the use of the GOP tag. Their movement is neither “grand” nor “old” and their new set of rigid ideology, in spite of what they love to pin on others, makes THEM the real RINO’s, having commandeered a fine old institution.
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It looks like the plan going forward will be a sort of “Fiscal Realignment and Cutting” Committee (FRAC, my construction) based on the successful Base Realignment and Closing (BRAC) committee.
Six Democrats and six Republicans.
Six Senators and six Representatives.
That is, twelve members in all, tasked with finding spending cuts and revenue enhancements and then presenting them to Congress in a take-it-or-leave-it, up-or-down fashion.
It worked for BRAC. It might work here.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59785.html
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#43 written by Jean 1 year ago
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#46 written by Jean 1 year ago
For comic relief from the debt crisis, there’s always Wisconsin’s Scott Waker’s latest: Closing ten DMV offices in Democratic districts and using the money saved to enlarge those in Republican districts. No photo ID for Democrats.
“Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans made the same mistake everyone in the Republican Party made after the 2010 election. They thought that winning meant something. The facts are a bit different. The turnout for the election was so low that the Republicans swept the Wisconsin state house, other state houses and the House of Representatives on the will of only 25% of the eligible voters in America. It took the election to make the other 75% of us realize the price of not voting.
A full 62% of Wisconsinites disapprove of the way the state is going. Having a Governor and state legislature that took a billion dollars from local governments, forbid them the ability to raise local taxes and then gave a billion dollars in tax breaks to the rich isn’t sitting well. Meanwhile, 53% of them think President Obama is doing a good job. When you look more closely at the numbers, get down to the “strongly disapprove” numbers, Walker is in deep trouble, with a 46% “strongly disapprove” rating while President Obama only has a 26% “strongly disapprove” number.
The Republicans in Wisconsin are also under fire for the decision to close DMV offices in predominantly Democratic districts, while extending hours at DMV offices in Republican districts, allegedly to save money, just at the time when the state is requiring photo IDs for voting. Senator Herb Kohl of Wisconsin is among a group of 16 who have asked the U. S. Justice Department to determine if these new voter IDs laws violate the Constitution. The fact that Walker is planning to close 10 DMV offices in districts which serve lower-income populations is stinking to high heaven.”
http://lezgetreal.com/2011/07/wisconsin%E2%80%99s-interesting-times/
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This morning’s New York Times has a rundown on the legal and political ramifications of invoking the 14th Amendment:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/us/politics/25legal.html
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#49 written by Jean 1 year ago
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It’s so fascinating. Lawrence O’Donnell calls it the most masterful piece of political maneuvering he’s ever seen. Obama has cast himself as the adult in the room, willing to make concessions for America while the GOP looks like petulant children, jerked around by the Tea Party and mindlessly protecting the “corporate jet owners.” He showed himself willing to make painful cuts to get the “big deal” but due to Boehner’s walkout, Obama ultimately will get a deal without having to cut anything at all. And in the end, O’Donnell points out, Obama will “reluctantly” accept exactly what he set out to achieve in the very beginning… leaving behind the shattered wreckage of the GOP who can’t say no to Grover Norquist.
Even PAT BUCHANAN think Obama looks like “the more reasonable party tonight.”