Governing through Reason
Can Wisconsin Recall?
It’s on. This is the real thing.
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The eyes of the nation turn to Wisconsin today. The recall elections can be seen as a presage of next year’s national contests. They are a referendum on the Republican governance not only of states, but in the House of Representatives. They are a test of the new politics under the Citizens United decision. They are a battle between the muscle of the Tea Party and the idealism of the New Deal, between conservative ideology and what’s left of labor unions in America. Turnout will be the key, so it is a contest too between the enthusiasm of the right from 2010, and that of the newly reënergized left.
If Democrats win three out of these six contests, they will gain control of the Wisconsin state senate.
Wisconsin law allows recall of elected officials only after they’ve been in office at least a year. Since the state assembly is elected every two years (the last election being in November of 2010), only state senators are eligible for recall this year. Governor Scott Walker will be eligible in January of 2012, and — particularly if the Democrats get control of the state senate today — a recall contest seems likely.
Today’s elections, however, still won’t be the last word on the Wisconsin senate. The Democrats were able to trigger six recall elections — but the Republicans responded with three recalls of Democrats. The first of these recall elections was held July 19, and Democrat David Hansen easily trounced challenger David VanderLeest. The final two recall elections targeting sitting Democratic State Senators will be one week from today, on August 16. At that time, it may be possible for Republicans to recapture some ground lost in today’s elections.
The polls close at 8:00 PM CDT. We’ll be posting commentary and results in a fresh post that will appear at 7:30 PM CDT. Please join in the discussion.
Related articles
- The GOP gets down and dirty in Wisconsin’s recall elections | Daniel Riemer (guardian.co.uk)
- The Importance of Wisconsin’s Recall Elections Tomorrow (crooksandliars.com)
- New wave of Wisconsin recall elections coming Tuesday (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- Massive Spending in Wisconsin Recalls (politicalwire.com)
- Tuesday Wisconsin Recall Elections Test Grover Norquist Vision, GOP Tactics (thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com)
- The Caucus: Voters Head to Polls in Wisconsin Recall Election (thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Wisconsin Recall Election Day (michellemalkin.com)
- Wisconsin recall elections are today — help GOTV now (dailykos.com)
- Nation Watches Recall Races in Wisconisn (politicalwire.com)
- Wisconsin voters go to polls in largest ever recall election — Reuters (news.google.com)
- Six Stats You Need to Know on Election Day in Wisconsin (alternet.org)
- Wisconsin Recall Elections: A Breakdown Of The Races (huffingtonpost.com)
- Voting Underway in the Wisconsin Recalls [Elections] (gawker.com)
- How Historic are the Wisconsin Recall Elections? (politicalwire.com)
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#2 written by mclever 1 year ago
@Monotreme
With poll numbers like those, today’s recall elections will be nail-biters for partisans of both sides.
Even with the obvious Democratic anger in Wisconsin, I’m a little surprised that these recalls may succeed, because recall elections are notoriously difficult for the challenger to win. If the Democrats do manage to pick up their 3 seats, it should send shockwaves through Wisconsin politics.
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First pictures and report:
A “crush” of voters in district 10 (Harsdorf/Moore) with many voters lined up for 7 am poll opening.GOP seeming very angry and worried in blog reports and comments from around the state.
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Here’s an interesting factoid.
Since 1908, there have been 20 recorded state legislative recall elections held in the United States, according to one recall expert. Wisconsin is in the process of holding nine such elections in the space of a month.
Voters, at least in Wisconsin, are angry with the new Republican crop and their style of rule. Regardless of the results of the recall elections, this level of discontent and buyer’s remorse is unprecedented.
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@DC… Regardless of the results of the recall elections, this level of discontent and buyer’s remorse is unprecedented.
And I heard a commentator yesterday making the point that Republicans in WI right now are pretty content. They are, after all, getting most everything they ever wanted from their state legislature. Democrats, on the other hand, are mad as hell.
So who is most likely to make the effort to schlepp down to the polls and stand in line in the August heat to cast a ballot… contented voters, or angry voters?
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#6 written by Mainer 1 year ago
I only have one contact as such in Wisconsin and he commented a little bit ago on a fishing site he and I frequent that at least from what he and his family and friends had seen so far today that the turn out isn’t just heavy but amazing (will be interesting to see what the numbers actually play out to be). It appears things have ground to a halt in many areas up there and my contact said trying to do business today is pretty much futile so he voted and was going to go fishing for the rest of the day.
Now his take was that the heavier the turn out the better the Democrats would do at least in areas he was familiar with do any of you have information that would support that idea? Oh and he is/was a self professed moderate Republican turned Independent and he and his clan were voting Democratic. All Anecdotal at best but if it was an indicator that those moderate middle Americans or even a significant number of them don’t like the way things are going and are using their votes in the manner he is then it is understandable that right wing groups are grousing this day.
One interesting additional comment from there as well his feelings that even with all the money dumped in from outside especially on the Republican side that in a number of the races it appeared that the Democrats had spent less on attack advertising and more on organization and the GOTV effort. Hard to say if that is real either as it would be pretty subjective but if correct it could show a way to beat unlimited Citizens United backed money. He also expects there to be Republican challenges on every Democrat that wins, heavily Democratic areas to oddly run out of ballots and pissing matches and challenges at all the counting sites. From him “We may not know who won in a number of these matches for days, weeks or even months but it will only be as an attempt to prolong a Republican majority and the messier it gets the more likely that Walker becomes a political dead man walkering.….….”
And yes Fili some of the blog sites, newspaper comment sections and such up there are very angry today with most of the anger at least at this point coming from the right. Hard to figure out what some of it even means with all kinds of little local inside comments.
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Also anecdotal, but interesting and perhaps even strongly indicative of the mindset of sensible centrist voters in WI…
Cowles, R, is being challenged by Democrat Nancy Nusbaum.… and a right-leaning moderate in the district explains her vote for the Democrat:
Kaukauna voter Susan Carr cast her ballot in favor of Nusbaum this morning for reasons beyond the records and issues of those running in the individual Senate race. “Yes, Cowles has a good record, and I’ve voted for him before,” she said. “My issue is getting enough balance in Madison so one party can’t bully the other.”
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#8 written by Mainer 1 year ago
I suspect Fili that much of this will remain anecdotal through the day other than reads of actual numbers of those turning out to vote and then even that will be looked at through different lenses depending on the position of the individual.
The prognostications are just all over the place. One would have to suspect that on the surface a couple of the Republicans will do well and a couple of the Democrats will do well.……and then it is a crap shoot. If what the individual said this morning is correct then it is possible that the stronger GOTV effort will turn the tide for one side or the other.
I think there are surprises in store but I’m just not sure what they are nor can I find any thing on the net that would give me any indication strong enough to go out on a limb with a prediction.
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Midday update… turnout now projected to be near levels for presidential elections, >40%.
Comment of the day on the WI elections at TPM:
Any Republican win will be “A clear mandate from the people” no matter how small the margin.
Any Democratic win will be “A clear example of why we need stronger voter fraud laws with state photo ID requirements”.
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Hey everybody,
We may try out our liveblog feature this evening for the recall election results. Polls close at 8:00 Central time. We’ll also have another thread up a little later this afternoon.
This is an exciting day — one of those “anything can happen” days in which political tides can turn suddenly in any direction. Stay tuned.
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#11 written by Mainer 1 year ago
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#16 written by Brian 1 year ago
Now if the Democrats do flip 3 seats today, how much money will be dumped into the Democrat recall elections? The whole thing could go back in just a week’s time.
I’m seeing nothing but fear, prayers, and claims of voter fraud and union thugs on conservative websites. Not exactly rosy optimism and expected wins from them.
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#18 written by Mainer 1 year ago
It isn’t just on conservative websites Brian. I find myself wondering just what god these folks are working with. Theirs must be one strange ass bible. As far as rosy optimism there has hardly been a thing on the Fox news site about it today and I find that a little odd. Guess they are too busy trying to demand that the president call congress back into session so the Republicans can fix the economy.……I think they have fixed it about more than I can stand already. Have the Senate fix the FAA mess and then let the whole lot of them sit home till hell freezes over.
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#19 written by Jean 1 year ago
A tidbit from Wisconsin today:
Madison — As elections took place Tuesday in six state Senate districts, Gov. Scott Walker signed legislation to redraw their boundaries along with the rest of legislative districts.
Walker waited until nearly the last possible moment to announce he had signed the legislation, which will give Republicans an advantage in the upcoming 2012 elections for both the Legislature and Congress.
The Republican governor had until the end of the business day Tuesday to sign or veto the redistricting legislation.
If Walker had simply taken no action Tuesday, the measure would have become law automatically. That’s because governors have six days, except Sundays, to act on a bill by signing it or vetoing it, according to the state Constitution.
With the maps now approved, the fight over redistricting now moves to the courts, where a federal lawsuit already has been filed.
Republicans moved the maps quickly through the Legislature last month, ensuring that the bills would pass even if the Democrats succeeded in taking control of the state Senate in Tuesday’s recall elections.
Setting district boundaries can give one party an advantage over the other by packing like-minded voters into certain areas. The maps, for instance, would make three state Senate seats in southeastern Wisconsin significantly more Republican.
Democrats criticized Walker for signing the bill in private on the day of the recall votes.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127319438.html
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#20 written by Mainer 1 year ago
I’m starting to think Walker isn’t the brightest bulb in the string. Ok lets see with x numbers of hours that the polls would be open he manages to piss off a few more people to vote against his side. Yup pure political brilliance. One person the new maps will not help one bit will be Walker himself. If the folks up there don’t get the Republican Senators out they will go after Walker for sure.….…probably will go after him either way but my god is that man blind to realiity.
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#21 written by Jean 1 year ago
While waiting for Wisconsin recall results, I’m checking the crime scene in Wisconsin.
Theft victim says culprit accompanied by monkey
According to a Franklin police report:
A saw was stolen from a parking lot in the 7200 block of South 27th Street prior to 7 p.m. Aug. 3.
The victim said the monkey was with the thief or thieves.
The victim was advised to call police if he sees the monkey again.
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#22 written by Jean 1 year ago
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#25 written by Mainer 1 year ago
Jean that whole redistricting thing is interesing. Some judges chose not to intervine earlier but a case has already been filed on Constitutional grounds and may have legs. What isn’t being mentioned is the spin off effect to a bunch of other types of governance and management districts up there. The cost of implimenting the whole thing is apparently going to be big as well. But you know those Republicans are penny wise and pounds foolish. Why their new voter ID plan will only cost their broke state about 6 million the first year.
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It’s important to keep in mind — these are recall elections of Republican state legislators. That means, obviously, that last time there was an election in these districts, the Republican won. If any Democrat wins tonight, it is a change since the last election, a rejection of the Republican, a case of strong buyer’s remorse.
In at least one of these districts (the 20th I think), there’s been a Republican there for decades. In fact, in the last election, it was such a sure thing that the Republican ran unopposed. If the Democrat tonight even makes a good showing, that’s a herald of a possible sea change.
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#28 written by Mainer 1 year ago
Exactly DC. I can’t seem to find the article I read that said the next batch of votes on the Democratic candidates was turning into a serious hohummer but it kind of indicated that the Republicans were not making much head way there. I have to start book marking stuff better when I find it.
So with the new live blog us plebians and our low level comments.…..er babble belong in this thread no one will bother reading while the actual serious stuff will go in the actual blog conducted by the real people.….…my that sounds so.….well Republican of you.
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#32 written by Mainer 1 year ago
Kind of figured but the wording above the blog could lead one to some interesting conclusions. And good that we are recognized for that which we are, you don’t know how hard it is to be an identified riff or raff. Careful on the mount as I understand oxygen deprivation can be pretty hard on the little gray cells.
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Daily Kos’ PPP polling shows a significant swing towards the Republicans:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/08/1004363/-Wisconsin-recall-elections:-Too-close-to%C2%A0call?via=blog_1
One of the races (Kapanke/Schilling) will almost certainly go to the Democrat Shilling; one of them (Harsdorf/Moore) will almost certainly go to the Republican Harsdorf.
The other four will depend critically on turnout. I’m surprised at how close the Hopper/King race has become. I thought Hopper would be an easy recall.