Once a month, we give a run­down of the Repub­li­can field for the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial nomination.

In June, there were 11 can­di­dates and poten­tial can­di­dates judged by Intrade investors to have a bet­ter than 1% chance of secur­ing the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion. Through­out July and August and Sep­tem­ber the “more than 1% on Intrade” club still num­bered nine, with about half unde­clared can­di­dates. Now there are seven, all offi­cially declared. In a sig­nif­i­cant devel­op­ment, this month’s run­down has none of the unde­clared can­di­date hoo-​​hah that sul­lied pre­vi­ous months. The time for late­com­ers and maybe-​​candidates seems to have truly passed, and the advance­ment of the pri­mary cal­en­dar has the side effect of solid­i­fy­ing the field.

Still, the “any­body but Rom­ney” move­ment seems strong, but its adher­ents have fallen into a sulky silence. Could Newt be next month’s anti-​​Romney? There’s a dis­con­nect between the polls and polit­i­cal futures markets.

As with past months, I gath­ered Real Clear Pol­i­tics aggre­gated poll aver­ages and Octo­ber 19 Intrade prob­a­bil­i­ties for each can­di­date, rounded to the near­est whole number.

Iowa Elec­tron­ics Mar­ket clos­ing prices for polit­i­cal futures con­tracts, Aug 30 to present. From top to bot­tom: teal, Rom­ney; red, rest of field; gray, Perry; blue, Bach­mann; gold, iron­i­cally, is Paul.

I listed the poten­tial Repub­li­can can­di­dates below, in order of their Intrade per­cent­ages, from high­est to low­est. In each case, the polling num­bers are given in paren­the­ses after the candidate’s name, rounded to the near­est whole num­ber, fol­lowed by the change from last month:

I com­piled rank-​​order list­ings from the six monthly sur­veys I’ve done, includ­ing this one.

This month’s big win­ner is the Mittster him­self, who used strong debate per­for­mances (or his oppo­nents’ weak debate per­for­mances) to ride to clear front-​​runner posi­tion in the polit­i­cal futures mar­kets. In the polls, he’s still in a vir­tual tie, but this month his poll antag­o­nist is Her­man Cain. Perry holds onto a weak sec­ond place in the Intrade stand­ings, and Cain is in third. After those two, there is another steep drop to Gin­grich, Paul and Hunts­man in a three-​​way tie for fourth. Bach­mann is the only remain­ing can­di­date above 1% accord­ing to Intrade, and she’s right on the line.

Can­di­date May rank June rank July rank August rank Sep­tem­ber rank Octo­ber rank
Rom­ney 1 1 1 1 1
Perry  none 4 2 1 2
Cain 5 7 none none none 3
Hunts­man 4 3 4 4 3 4 (tie)
Gin­grich 8 9 none none 8 4 (tie)
 Paul 9 10 7 7 6 4 (tie)
 Bachmann 7 5 3 5 5 7


Mitt Romney’s Intrade price, Sept 20 to Oct 19. Line: price; green bar: volume.

1.  For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney (RCP 25% +5; In 68% +29)

Rom­ney saw a huge spike in the polit­i­cal futures mar­kets this month, but his poll num­bers still lag. He’s in a vir­tual tie, poll-​​wise, with the Octo­ber Fla­vor of the Month, Her­man Cain.

Rick Perry’s Intrade con­tract, Sept 20 to Oct 19.

2.  Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry (RCP 13% –19; In 15% –21)

Perry sinks like a stone. Score one for filistro’s pre­dic­tive capa­bil­i­ties: she said he wouldn’t wear well, and he hasn’t. Perry seems to be one of those politi­cians we like less and less, the more we get to know him.


Her­man Cain’s Intrade price, Sept 20 to Oct 19.

3.  Busi­ness­man Her­man Cain (RCP 24% +19; In 8% +7).

Cain, buoyed by a strong show­ing in a Florida straw poll and pass­able debate per­for­mances, is this month’s “NotRom­ney” dar­ling. His mete­oric rise has been matched only by his abil­ity to put his foot in his mouth, fol­lowed by the stan­dard come­back, “I was only kid­ding, guys.” It’s prob­a­bly still not okay to kid about elec­tro­cut­ing ille­gal aliens, though.

4 (tie). For­mer Utah Gov­er­nor, for­mer Obama Admin­is­tra­tion Ambas­sador to China, Jon Hunts­man (RCP 2% 0; In 3% –2)

Hunts­man, like the other third-​​tier can­di­dates, doesn’t have a clear path to the nom­i­na­tion, unless you count a hung convention.

4 (tie). Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) (RCP 8% –2; In 3% 0)

Paul’s posi­tion in the rank­ings has changed over time, but his over­all poll num­bers have been very steady. He has a core group of vocif­er­ous sup­port­ers, but can’t seem to extend his reach much beyond them.

4 (tie).  For­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich (RCP 8% +7; In 3% +1)

After his spring and sum­mer strug­gles, Gin­grich has a strong show­ing in the polls this month, but it’s not reflected in the polit­i­cal futures mar­kets. Clearly the pub­lic was impressed with his debate per­for­mances, but the peo­ple who would bet money on him don’t think as much of his cam­paign. There doesn’t seem to be a clear path to the nom­i­na­tion for him: through Iowa? New Hamp­shire? Per­haps South Car­olina or Florida, but those still have to be con­sid­ered long­shots for Gingrich.

7.  Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Michele Bach­mann (R-​​Stillwater, MN) (RCP 5% –2; In 1% –2)

Bach­mann con­tin­ues to sink in both polls and polit­i­cal futures mar­kets. Appar­ently, the Rep­re­sen­ta­tive from Still­wa­ter keeps run­ning deeper.