New Hampshire Primary Preview
Here we are, at the first primary election of the 2012 season. And how do things look today? Let’s run down the candidates, and see where they’re at.
Former New Hampshire Governor Mitt Romney
As most have long suspected, New Hampshire is Mitt Romney country. His history of more moderate Republican stances on policies, coupled with having been Governor of nearby Massachusetts, made him the man to beat from the first day of campaigning.
But it’s not as if he’s going to walk away with a majority of votes. The latest polls show him in the mid-30s. But that’s good enough for a double-digit lead over…
Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX)
I’m well aware that the Live Free or Die State is notoriously contrarian, and that should have clued me in that we were looking at him being a good choice for the runner-up spot.
Nonetheless, Ron Paul has polled in New Hampshire below all of the Ghosts of NotRomneys Past: Representative Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater, MN), Texas Governor Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. For this reason, I didn’t expect us to see Ron Paul in this slot in New Hampshire. From the overall trending, it’s probably because the surge from…
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman
is too late to bring the most liberal of the pack into the second position. Instead, Huntsman is most likely to finish a solid third place. This does not bode well for him, though. New Hampshire is his best shot at building a story of credibility before Super Tuesday. He may be able to do well in Nevada’s caucuses, but the momentum of South Carolina and Florida are not in his favor, particularly with Romney showing a clear lead in both states’ latest polls.
Perhaps his best hope at this point is to build on the story that he has beaten…
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Santorum has been falling as quickly as he rose in Iowa last week, where he (unofficially) beat Romney by a handful of votes. Losing in New Hampshire is not that tragic for him, but he’s in danger in South Carolina and Florida. In both states, he finds himself battling with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for the NotRomney votes. In South Carolina, he’s essentially tied with Gingrich, while he continues to trail in Florida by a nearly double-digit margin. Worse yet, in New Hampshire he is essentially tied with…
Gingrich has seen a small surge in New Hampshire polls of late, making him pretty much tied with Santorum and Huntsman in the race for the third spot. For Gingrich, showing in this race is critical for building a momentum story for South Carolina and Florida, both states within reach. If he comes in third in New Hampshire, and then wins the next two, he could still be considered the leading NotRomney. But would that do more harm than good for the Anyone but Mitt crowd? At least he’s not…
who has found himself bouncing along the bottom of the polls at a whopping one percent. While Perry would certainly like to think of himself as the obvious NotRomney candidate, his polling in South Carolina and Florida is scarcely better than in New Hampshire. His war chest will allow him to hang on until at least as far as the end of the month, when Floridians head to the polls. But his odds are diminishing rapidly, regardless of what happens today in New Hampshire.
So what do you all think will happen today? How will this translate to the next two primaries?
- New Hampshire Primary: Romney Rivals Make Final Appeals Before Vote (huffingtonpost.com)
- New Hampshire primary — live: Mitt Romney fends off attacks (guardian.co.uk)
- New Hampshire: Dash for Second Best (thestreet.com)
- Confident Romney Concerned With Voter Turnout, Not Rivals (huffingtonpost.com)
- A look at the most recent polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina (examiner.com)
- Romney slides 10 points in 5 days in the NH Suffolk poll (hotair.com)
- ‘You Don’t Want To Trap Yourself’ (huffingtonpost.com)
- Poll: Romney on top of field in Florida (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- New Hampshire primary: what to look out for (newstatesman.com)
- One day until New Hampshire votes, Ron Paul fights for the lead (rt.com)
- Romney rivals go after front-runner on primary eve (newsok.com)
- Romney’s ‘I Like Being Able To Fire People’ Comment Gets Rivals’ Attention (boston.cbslocal.com)