Archive for January 26, 2012
Tonight is the second Florida debate. This debate, hosted by CNN and the Florida Republican Party, will be moderated by Wolf Blitzer, and held at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville. It will be broadcast on CNN starting at 8:00PM EST (5:00PM PST).
As with the one in Tampa earlier in the week, we still have four candidates onstage, but only two of them have a reasonable chance of winning Florida. (more…)
We all got a surprise this week. Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary going away, and that scrambled the Republican primary field, and returned us to five candidates trading at or above one percent on Intrade…one of whom is new to the series.
The turmoil even prompted the ascent of former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) and a faint heartbeat from Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who delivered the State of the Union rebuttal. Recall that Daniels was one of the summer’s early Not Romneys, before being Not Romney was cool.
We’re once again posting Real Clear Politics aggregated poll averages. RCP is currently aggregating polls from January 12 to 24, so the aggregated polls will not necessarily reflect the South Carolina primary results, and in any case are national numbers. However, Intrade investor/bettors have had time to digest and act on the news, so we’ll concentrate on those numbers once again.
Speaking of numbers, a certain high-level Presidential advisor noted the discrepancy between the amount of money spent by the Romney campaign and the number of delegates Romney gained in South Carolina, and tweeted Nate Silver a math problem.
(The number was later revised upward to $5.5 million, but I think the answer is the same.)