Archive for January 26, 2012

Republican Presidential Debate: January 26

210
1 year ago
by Logarchism.com in

Here they come again…

Tonight is the sec­ond Florida debate. This debate, hosted by CNN and the Florida Repub­li­can Party, will be mod­er­ated by Wolf Blitzer, and held at the Uni­ver­sity of North Florida in Jack­sonville. It will be broad­cast on CNN start­ing at 8:00PM EST (5:00PM PST).

As with the one in Tampa ear­lier in the week, we still have four can­di­dates onstage, but only two of them have a rea­son­able chance of win­ning Florida. (more…)

The 2012 Republican Primary Field: January 26, 2012

12
1 year ago
by Monotreme in

Back to the future.

We all got a sur­prise this week. Newt Gin­grich won the South Car­olina pri­mary going away, and that scram­bled the Repub­li­can pri­mary field, and returned us to five can­di­dates trad­ing at or above one per­cent on Intrade…one of whom is new to the series.

The tur­moil even prompted the ascent of for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA) and a faint heart­beat from Indi­ana Gov­er­nor Mitch Daniels, who deliv­ered the State of the Union rebut­tal. Recall that Daniels was one of the summer’s early Not Rom­neys, before being Not Rom­ney was cool.

We’re once again post­ing Real Clear Pol­i­tics aggre­gated poll aver­ages. RCP is cur­rently aggre­gat­ing polls from Jan­u­ary 12 to 24, so the aggre­gated polls will not nec­es­sar­ily reflect the South Car­olina pri­mary results, and in any case are national num­bers. How­ever, Intrade investor/​bettors have had time to digest and act on the news, so we’ll con­cen­trate on those num­bers once again.

Story Prob­lem

Speak­ing of num­bers, a cer­tain high-​​level Pres­i­den­tial advi­sor noted the dis­crep­ancy between the amount of money spent by the Rom­ney cam­paign and the num­ber of del­e­gates Rom­ney gained in South Car­olina, and tweeted Nate Sil­ver a math problem.

(The num­ber was later revised upward to $5.5 mil­lion, but I think the answer is the same.)

(more…)

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