Florida 2008 Repub­li­can Pri­mary results. Inten­sity of color is scaled to vote per­cent­age. Color code: blue, McCain; green, Rom­ney; orange, Huck­abee. Giu­liani and Paul com­peted but did not win any coun­ties. Source: US Elec­tion Atlas

Florida was among the states set­ting off a chain reac­tion of ear­lier and ear­lier pri­mary and cau­cus dates this year. The Republican-​​dominated Florida Legislature’s deci­sion to move the pri­mary to Jan­u­ary 31, 2012 — today — resulted in the most severe penal­ties pos­si­ble from the Repub­li­can National Com­mit­tee, includ­ing the loss of half of the state’s 100 del­e­gates, lousy hotel rooms, bad seat­ing and fewer VIP passes. (The hotel room issue sounds minor, but any­one who has attended a huge, high-​​security con­ven­tion knows that hav­ing a close-​​in hotel is a major perk.) To add insult to injury, Tampa, Florida is the site of this year’s Repub­li­can con­ven­tion, August 27–30.

 

 

 

Pre­lim­i­nary 2012 results, with about 3⁄4 of the vote counted. Red: Gin­grich; Orange: Romney

It’s a redux of the 2008 elec­tion cycle, where both par­ties penal­ized the Florida delegation.

Update Tues­day evening 1⁄31: Pre­lim­i­nary results with about 3⁄4 of the vote counted are shown at right. Coun­ties won by Gin­grich are in red; coun­ties won by Rom­ney in orange.

The Democ­rats stayed away by mutual con­sent, and a major bat­tle ensued at the con­ven­tion over the penal­ized del­e­gates in Florida and Michi­gan, a bat­tle Hillary Clin­ton lost, as she lost the nom­i­na­tion. On the Repub­li­can side, the out­come was clear, and the del­e­gates were allowed vot­ing priv­i­leges again when the out­come was already estab­lished to be Sen­a­tor John McCain.

Intrade sees this as an easy win for for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Willard “Mitt” Rom­ney, giv­ing him a 98 per­cent chance of a win at this writ­ing. Also com­pet­ing are for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich, for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA), and Con­gress­man Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX).

The most recent polls have Rom­ney up by as many as 20 per­cent­age points (Insider Advan­tage). Suf­folk Uni­ver­sity has Rom­ney up five. Other polls from this week­end (Quin­nip­iac, PPP, NBC News/​Marist, Miami Her­ald/​Mason-​​Dixon, Ras­mussen) fall between this high and low, but all show a sub­stan­tial lead for Rom­ney. The Real Clear Pol­i­tics “poll of polls” has Rom­ney at +12.5.

Report­edly, Gin­grich is already look­ing past Florida. Look he might, but he shouldn’t expect much help from the cal­en­dar. In Feb­ru­ary, Maine, Nevada, Col­orado and Min­nesota will hold cau­cuses, most of them non-​​binding, early in the month. There is a gap, then on Feb­ru­ary 28, Ari­zona and Michi­gan will hold pri­maries. Note that Nevada Repub­li­cans are par­tic­u­larly well rep­re­sented by Mor­mons, and Michi­gan is Romney’s home state.

In the end, Florida may have done what they intended by jump­ing the gun, becom­ing the de facto “decider” of the 2012 Repub­li­can nominee.

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