Sixes

The NotNotRom­ney revival amongst the Repub­li­can pri­mary field continues.

For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Willard “Mitt” Rom­ney is still in first place in the esti­ma­tion of Intraders (but not in national polls). Still, the evi­dent Repub­li­can dis­sat­is­fac­tion with Rom­ney persists.

Through­out the fall of 2011 and early 2012, a suc­ces­sion of NotRom­neys appeared. For­mer Alaska Gov­er­nor Sarah Palin, Don­ald Trump, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Michele Bach­mann (R-​​Stillwater, MN), Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry, Her­man Cain, for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich, then for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA) all wore the NotRom­ney crown. Two cur­rent NotRom­neys occupy the sec­ond tier: San­to­rum and Gin­grich. Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX), as always, stands alone.

Last week’s new trend, the NotNotRom­ney, is still devel­op­ing. Since it’s too late to enter the pri­mary race, these are essen­tially bets on a bro­kered con­ven­tion. For a few days there, it looked like there were going to be not one but two Not­NotRom­neys join­ing for­mer Florida Gov­er­nor John Ellis “Jeb” Bush, last week’s Not­NotRom­ney. Indi­ana Gov­er­nor Mitch Daniels, how­ever, faded in the stretch, and left New Jer­sey Gov­er­nor Chris Christie as this week’s new Not­NotRom­ney. Except he’s a retread — both Daniels and Christie were sum­mer­time NotRom­neys and now they are reborn as NotNotRomneys.

If we start with 100 per­cent and sub­tract the Intrade per­cent­ages for Rom­ney and the NotRom­neys (San­to­rum, Gin­grich, and Paul), then the resid­ual Not­NotRom­ney per­cent­age is 6.6 per­cent. That means Intraders fig­ure there’s about a one in 15 chance of a bro­kered convention.

I’ve listed the poten­tial Repub­li­can can­di­dates below, in order of their Intrade per­cent­ages, from high­est to low­est. In each case, the polling num­bers are given in paren­the­ses after the candidate’s name, rounded to the near­est whole num­ber, fol­lowed by the change from last month:

RCP = the most recent (Feb­ru­ary 8–21) avail­able Real Clear Pol­i­tics national aggre­gated polling data.

In = Intrade Feb­ru­ary 22.

Ari­zona and Michi­gan hold pri­maries on Feb­ru­ary 28. I’ve also included polling data from those states:

AZ = NBC/​Marist Poll of likely Ari­zona vot­ers, released Feb­ru­ary 22.

MINBC/​Marist Poll of likely Michi­gan vot­ers, released Feb­ru­ary 22.

In the inter­est of space and clar­ity, I’ve dropped the May-​​October monthly stand­ings columns. The horser­ace stand­ings now start in Novem­ber, but you can go to the Jan­u­ary 5 arti­cle to see the entire set going back to May, 2011.

Can­di­date Nov Dec Jan 5 Jan 12 Jan 19 Jan 25 Feb 2 Feb 9 Feb 16 Feb 23
Rom­ney 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
San­to­rum none
none
3 (tie)
4 (tie)
none
4
4
2
2
2
Gin­grich 2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
Paul 4 (tie)
3
5
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
Bush, J none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
5
5
Christie none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
6

 

1. For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney (RCP 28% 0; In 75% 0; AZ 43% +5; MI 37% +4)

Rom­ney was strug­gling in state polling last week. He seems to have regained ground this week. He was born in Michi­gan, and his father was Pres­i­dent of Amer­i­can Motors and Gov­er­nor. Those fam­ily ties seem to have buoyed his num­bers going into the last week before the pri­mary. He remains strong in Ari­zona. Nate Sil­ver has Rom­ney as an 89 per­cent favorite in Ari­zona and as a 48 per­cent under­dog in Michigan.

2. For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA) (RCP 34% 0; In 11% –5; AZ 27% –4; MI 35% –8)

Last week, it looked like San­to­rum was in line to pull of an upset in Romney’s native state of Michi­gan and give Rom­ney a close run in Ari­zona. More recent polls, how­ever, have San­to­rum fad­ing badly in both states. Nate Sil­ver has San­to­rum as a 52 to 48 per­cent favorite over Rom­ney in Michi­gan, or essen­tially tied with Rom­ney. How­ever, San­to­rum is fad­ing, and if this trend con­tin­ues through Elec­tion Day Feb­ru­ary 28 in Michi­gan, San­to­rum may lose. In Ari­zona, much of the polling has already taken place in early vot­ing so a San­to­rum loss may be locked in.

3. For­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich (RCP 14% –1; In 5% +1; AZ 16% +1; MI 8% –3)

Gin­grich had a good debate last night but it won’t be enough to get him a win in either of the Feb­ru­ary 28 states. Intraders now fig­ure that Gin­grich is less likely to get the nom­i­na­tion than the chance that the con­ven­tion will go past the first ballot.

4. Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) (RCP 12% 0; In 3% 0; AZ 11% 0; MI 13% +5)

Mr. (or Doc­tor) Con­sis­tency con­tin­ues his con­sis­tent run. No sig­nif­i­cant change in Rep. Paul’s num­bers this week.

5.  For­mer Florida Gov­er­nor Jeb Bush (RCP no data; In 3% +1%; no poll data)

Jeb Bush is up a tick, but at these odds (actu­ally 2.5 per­cent before round­ing), a small tick looks like a big­ger deal than it should. Still, Bush is the favorite of the “bro­kered con­ven­tion” bet­tors, prob­a­bly because they fig­ure he has the home field advan­tage with the Repub­li­can Con­ven­tion in Tampa this year.

6.  New Jer­sey Gov­er­nor Chris Christie (RCP no data; In 1% +1%; no poll data)

Christie enjoyed a surge this sum­mer, and there’s a new surge in Feb­ru­ary. He has shown no inter­est in being drafted at a bro­kered con­ven­tion, so this is likely a pipe dream. He and Daniels were tied at 0.9 per­cent ear­lier in the week, but Daniels has faded to 0.7 per­cent while Christie “surged” to 1.2 per­cent. Still, that’s a pretty thin reed to hang on.