Today marks the begin­ning of a new series: Sen­ate Watch. We’ll be look­ing at the seats up for elec­tion this cycle, and which way it looks like they’re going.

I’ll start this month with a map, fol­lowed by an expla­na­tion. First, the map:

Now for the explanation.

  • Gray states have no Sen­a­tors being elected this year.
  • The dark blue and red rep­re­sent safe seats for the Democ­rats and Repub­li­cans, respec­tively, to hold.
  • Light blue and red rep­re­sent likely holds for the Democ­rats and Repub­li­cans, respectively.
  • The lone green state (Ver­mont) is inde­pen­dent and likely to stay so; Sen­a­tor Bernie Sanders is pop­u­lar and expected to be reëlected.

Gra­di­ents indi­cate a pos­si­ble shift. Read the color left to right.

  • If it goes from blue to pur­ple, it’s a seat held by a Demo­c­rat, but a tossup for the election.
  • If it goes from red to pur­ple, it’s a seat held by a Repub­li­can, but a tossup for the election.
  • The two state that goes from dark blue to light red (North Dakota) are likely pick­ups for the Republicans.
  • The one state that goes from green to light blue (Con­necti­cut) is cur­rently held by retir­ing Sen­a­tor Joe Lieber­man, who is expected to be replaced by whomever wins the state Demo­c­ra­tic pri­mary elec­tion on August 14.
  • And the one state that goes from red to light blue (Maine) is cur­rently held by Sen­a­tor Olympia Snowe, who announced last week that she will not be seek­ing another term. At the moment, it appears that the state is lean­ing in the blue direc­tion. Of course, Maine is a quirky state, so…

This gives the fol­low­ing post-​​election breakdown:

“Con­tin­u­ing” in this case refers to the seats in Sen­ate Classes 2 and 3, which are not up for elec­tion this cycle.

Over the next few months, we’ll be look­ing mostly at the gra­di­ent states, though we’ll dip our toes into the light-​​colored states as well.

But, for now, I’ll note a few things about some states:

  • Mass­a­chu­setts: This is the most likely Demo­c­ra­tic pickup. Sen­a­tor Scott Brown is the first Repub­li­can Sen­a­tor from Mass­a­chu­setts since 1979*, in a state that now has a Par­ti­san Vot­ing Index (PVI) of D+12. Brown has the advan­tage of incum­bency, but two con­flict­ing recent polls sug­gest that the race between Brown and his chal­lenger, Eliz­a­beth War­ren, is close.
  • North Dakota: With Demo­c­rat Kent Con­rad retir­ing, North Dakota should be a slam-​​dunk for Repub­li­cans. After all, the state has a PVI of R+10, almost as par­ti­san as Mass­a­chu­setts. But it’s not nec­es­sar­ily so clear-​​cut. Now that for­mer state Attor­ney Gen­eral Heidi Heitkamp has entered the race on the Demo­c­ra­tic side, early polling sug­gests that this race may be closer than you’d think.
  • Nevada: This one is a pos­si­ble Demo­c­ra­tic pickup. Dean Heller’s DW-​​NOMINATE is con­sid­er­ably to the right of the state’s PVI, leav­ing him open to being ousted by a mod­er­ate Demo­c­rat. Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Shel­ley Berkley (D-​​Las Vegas, NV) isn’t the ideal can­di­date in that regard, but she is only half the dis­tance from the cen­ter that Heller is. In a state with a PVI of D+1, that gives her a decent shot. That said, it’s hard to beat an incum­bent, absent a scan­dal or a party wave elec­tion. There haven’t been any recent polls, so this is a state to watch for polling data as the year progresses.
  • Vir­ginia: Coat­tails may make the dif­fer­ence in this state, where the race has no incum­bent. Demo­c­rat Tim Kaine and Repub­li­can George “Macaca” Allen square off here. Allen lost his Sen­ate seat in 2006, a Demo­c­ra­tic wave year. Kaine, a for­mer Vir­ginia Gov­er­nor (as is Allen), is a mod­er­ate Demo­c­rat, which is prob­a­bly the only kind that can win a statewide elec­tion in Vir­ginia. Polls have shown the two to be tied for nearly a year.
  • Nebraska: With the entry of Bob Ker­rey, what looked like a sure Repub­li­can pickup has turned into a real race. It remains to be seen how this one will turn out.
  • Mis­souri: This is a very close race. Demo­c­rat Claire McCaskill has the advan­tage of incum­bency, but Mis­souri is a PVI R+3 state. For­mer state Trea­surer Sarah Steel­man is the most likely Repub­li­can can­di­date, and she polls the best of the lead­ing Repub­li­can can­di­dates against McCaskill. The two have been within the mar­gin of error on all polls (both reg­is­tered and likely voter mod­els) for over a year, which sug­gests that this will be a nail-​​biter.
  • Mon­tana: This is a PVI R+7 state, so Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Jon Tester has an uphill bat­tle to keep his seat, which he won in the Demo­c­ra­tic wave elec­tion of 2006. Indeed, polling has con­sis­tently shown him two to three points behind Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Denny Rehberg, whose DW-​​NOMINATE score is only slightly more con­ser­v­a­tive than the state’s PVI would sug­gest. I showed the gra­di­ent to pur­ple, but it should per­haps have a bit of a red tinge to it.
  • Florida: With a PVI of R+2, Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Bill Nel­son has a much eas­ier road ahead of him than does Jon Tester of Mon­tana. That said, Nel­son is a fairly main­stream Demo­c­ra­tic Sen­a­tor, which makes his vot­ing record a bit out of step with the state as a whole. His oppo­nent, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Con­nie Mack, IV, has a more Tea Party DW-​​NOMINATE record, though, which helps Nel­son. Indeed, over the past six months Nel­son has gen­er­ally polled bet­ter than Mack. For now, at least, it’s a close race.

Over the next few months, I’ll give more detailed analy­ses on the states.

Mean­while, what do you think is going to hap­pen? How likely is it that the Repub­li­cans will take con­trol of the Senate?

Note: In an ear­lier ver­sion of the arti­cle, I erro­neously stated that Mass­a­chu­setts hadn’t sent a Repub­li­can to the Sen­ate since 1953. That was true for the Class 1 seat, but the last Repub­li­can Mass­a­chu­setts sent to the Sen­ate was replaced by a Demo­c­rat in 1979.

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