Don’t Show Me
It’s caucus time in Missouri. You remember Missouri, don’t you? This was the state that had the beauty contest a month ago, which former Senator Rick Santorum won handily, as part of his sweep of states for the day, which included wins over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in Colorado and Minnesota. It was that hat trick that turned Santorum from a distant also-ran into the leading NotRomney candidate, a position he has retained every day since.
Today, though, the “Show Me” state is holding caucuses. Nonbinding caucuses, at that, which is the favorite flavor of Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX). For the most part, everyone outside of Missouri has abandoned the state, focusing instead on the next battleground of Illinois, which holds its primary on Tuesday. Intrade has no market on today’s outcome, and there are no recent polls of potential caucus attendees.
One key reason for this is that the Missouri Republican Party is releasing zero results. According to the state Republican Party, “Caucus-goers will be voting for delegates, and with few exceptions, these delegates will not be bound to a particular candidate. Because there is no vote on candidate preference, neither the Missouri GOP nor any election authority will have or release any data regarding the ‘winner’ of the caucuses.”
Most of the ink spilled on this contest has assumed that Santorum will walk away with a win. After all, he won the earlier contest in Missouri, and has won all surrounding states to date. But Romney made several appearances in the state this week, hoping to blunt Santorum’s expected victory by continuing to collect a substantial number of delegates. Regardless, we won’t know the result until the state party convention, at which point nobody will care.
This means there’s no momentum shift to come out of today’s caucuses.
And this leads us to the current media conundrum. Romney is certain to have a plurality of delegates in his pocket by the time the last vote is cast in Utah on June 26, and he collects all of Utah’s 40 delegates. He’s likely to have a majority of delegates by then as well.
But the momentum story is the one that gets the most airplay.
Part of the reason for this is so many Republicans wish Romney weren’t the leading candidate. And part of the reason is that the media don’t get to collect eyeballs when there’s no drama.
Today, though, there are 52 delegates at stake, to be divided in some way that none of us will learn until much later, and few of us will care about when and if we do. Oh…speaking of the stuff nobody cares about, Puerto Rico has its open primary election tomorrow. It’s winner-take-all, for 23 delegates.
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Here’s a little something to consider.
The debate has long been framed as Romney vs. NotRomney. Yet, a poll released yesterday by Gallup indicates that Gingrich’s voters are evenly split between Santorum and Romney. That being the case, if Santorum wants to maximize his chances at the nomination, he should be encouraging Gingrich (at least very quietly) to stay in the race.
Gingrich would probably endorse Santorum over Romney, and a formal endorsement of Santorum after Utah is done would give NotRomney (aka Santorum) the edge heading to the convention.
Something to consider.