Republican Delegate Counts: April 7
We’re in a three-week hiatus with no primaries or caucuses, which probably accounts for the punditocracy focusing on the status of the horse — uh, make that elephant — race.
A sure sign that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the nomination all but sewn up: Politico has turned to handicapping the Vice-Presidential slot. Politico’s Maggie Haberman feels former Office of Management and Budget director and current Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) is the favorite.
We at Logarchism like to look at Intrade numbers. As of Friday on Intrade, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is the favorite with a 25 percent chance of securing the VP nomination, followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (11 percent), Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (nine percent), Portman (nine percent), Representative Paul Ryan (R-Janesville, WI) (nine percent), and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (eight percent).
Romney’s Intrade numbers are a virtually certain 96 percent, with none of the other candidates above one percent.
To see the reason why, examine the graph of delegate counts (data courtesy of The New York Times/Associated Press), after the jump.
According to the Associated Press delegate count, Romney has 658 of the 1,144 delegates he needs for a win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida, on August 29. Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) is far behind at 281, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is further behind at 135, and Representative Ron “the Walrus” Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) at a hopeless 51.
Put another way, through the remaining caucuses and primaries ending with Utah June 26, there are still 1,160 delegates available. Paul would have to secure 94 percent of the remaining delegates, Gingrich would need 87 percent, and Santorum would need 74 percent of the remaining delegates to reach 1,144 and a first-ballot win. Thus, it seems virtually impossible for any of them to secure the nomination on the first ballot. Their best hope is to force a second ballot.
What are Romney’s chances of getting a first-ballot majority? Virtually certain, as he would need only 42 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. The graph above starts with Washington State (March 3) and Super Tuesday (March 6). At the end of February (left side of the graph), the delegate race was much closer. If one extrapolates Romney’s staircase, it’s easy to see that his delegate counts are going to easily outstrip Santorum’s somewhere in early June, barring some major disaster.
- Republican Delegate Counts: March 15 (logarchism.com)
- The 2012 Republican Primary Field: March 8, 2012 (logarchism.com)
- RPOF: Santorum-McCalister aide holds “delusional fantasy” about Republican rules (miamiherald.typepad.com)
- Fla GOP scoffs at Santorum holding out hope for Fla delegates (tampabay.com)
- Santorum campaign memo claims delegate count tighter than media reports (thehill.com)
- Hatch counts on Mitt-mentum (politico.com)
- Santorum campaign disputes delegate counts as it claims race is closer (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- Santorum Claims Delegate Count Wrong (themoderatevoice.com)