Open Mic July 20

Ann Rom­ney has a gleam in her eye when she thinks of “you people”.

Did Ann Rom­ney say “we’ve released all you peo­ple need to know and under­stand about our finan­cial sit­u­a­tion”? (It sounds to me like “we’ve released yunh peo­ple need to know…” when I lis­ten to the video.)

Did Barack Obama say “If you’ve got a busi­ness, you didn’t build that,” or was he refer­ring to bridges? (It sounds pretty clear to me that he’s talk­ing about infrastructure.)

Did Michele Bach­mann say there is “poten­tial Mus­lim Broth­er­hood infil­tra­tion into the United States Gov­ern­ment” includ­ing Sec­re­tary of State Hillary Clinton’s assis­tant Huma Abe­din? (Yes, and it’s in writ­ing.)

Did Abedin’s now-​​infamous house­hus­band make a sort of come­back? (Yes, reveal­ing that he is or maybe is not going to run for New York City Mayor.)

Are we going to have to endure this kind of silli­ness between now and Novem­ber 6? (Almost cer­tainly “yes”.)

Feel free to weigh in on what Ann Rom­ney said between “released” and “peo­ple”, and what Barack Obama said about busi­ness own­ers, or any­thing else that strikes your fancy. It’s your thread.

Don’t see an arti­cle on a par­tic­u­lar topic, but want to talk about it some­where? This is Open Mic. Talk about what­ever you want, but stay respectful.

We cre­ate a new Open Mic every week to give a clean slate, but feel free to add to this topic at any time.




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  1. da,

    Auto­matic weapons are ille­gal for sale in the US except under VERY strin­gent conditions.

    A fed­eral Form 4 must be filled out to make an appli­ca­tion for an auto­matic weapon. You need to be 21 years of age to start this process. Then you need to be approved by your police chief and pass an FBI back­ground check and pay for this work and wait for many months. Then those weapons can cost in the tens of thou­sands of dollars.

    A num­ber of states will not allow own­er­ship regardless.

  2. Max,
    Nobody said doing noth­ing was bet­ter than doing some­thing.  But if the choice is between a lone gun­man fir­ing rounds and two or three half-​​trained peo­ple fir­ing into the mêlée, I truly doubt the result will be an improvement.

    There are cases where an armed indi­vid­ual may foil an evil­doer.  They’re rarer than you think, which is why you trum­pet the rare case when it hap­pens.  Most of the time, and in most sit­u­a­tions, an armed indi­vid­ual is a dan­ger to all those around them, includ­ing themselves.

    This is amply born out by the sta­tis­tics on deaths by gun.


  3. A num­ber of states will not allow own­er­ship regard­less.“

    Why not just ban them com­pletely? Seri­ously, what is the argu­ment for auto­matic weapons in civil­ian hands?

  4. da, 

    you under­stand that use of auto­matic weapons in crimes in the US is so rare as to approach zero? I can’t name a sin­gle instance off the top of my head.

  5. sc,

    I agree that a “two or three half-​​​​trained peo­ple fir­ing into the mêlée” is not the answer. But YOU are mak­ing THAT assump­tion. That a per­son would just jump up and begin fir­ing their gun indis­crim­i­nately. That is NOT the choice as I pre­sented, or would be per­son­ally involved.. Fact is that most respon­si­ble gun own­ers “know their tar­get” and will not pull the trig­ger until tar­get acqui­si­tion. I also want EVERY CCL appli­cant to receive train­ing and demon­strate proficiency.

    Can you give us exam­ples of where one or two or three half-​​​​trained peo­ple that held a CCL fir­ed in a sit­u­a­tion that made the results worse?

  6. Max,
    Just look at the sta­tis­tics from the Army on friendly fire…

    But you are cor­rect.  In the vast major­ity of cases, the armed indi­vid­ual will not use the weapon they have.

    Which really means that your ini­tial ques­tion as to whether it would have been bet­ter, in this case, if some­one in the the­ater — besides the gun­man, that is — had been pack­ing, was fatu­ous.  This was a cir­cum­stance that would have been far bet­ter with NO guns, not with more.

  7. GROG,
    For what it’s worth, I think Rubio is a par­tic­u­larly artic­u­late (albeit mis­guided) politi­cian. And I think he could be a seri­ous force in 2016, par­tic­u­larly if Obama is reëlected this year. In many ways, the Marco Rubio of 2012 strikes me as the Repub­li­can ver­sion of the Barack Obama of 2004.

  8. I have been lis­ten­ing to the 911 calls today, and I am deeply impressed by the obvi­ous brav­ery and pro­fes­sion­al­ism of the Aurora Police and Fire Depart­ments. I am sad­dened by the loss of life but cheered by the Thin Blue Line between our lives and mayhem.

  9. rgbact,

    You must’ve missed a state or 2. VA, OH, CO, IA, NH, MI.….yes. PA and WI come along when he invari­ably picks a Mid­west VP.

    So let’s say Daniels was his VP choice, and the elec­tion were held next Tues­day. You think all seven of those states would go Romney?

  10. Another thought: as some­one who spent time doing Dis­as­ter Pre­pared­ness for hos­pi­tals, I am also impressed by the response of hos­pi­tal per­son­nel and their state of readiness.

  11. short­chain,

    I sus­pect that, if there were a few peo­ple car­ry­ing at the the­ater, and they man­aged to get off a few rounds, they are prob­a­bly respon­si­ble for a few of the wounded

    I had the same thought.

  12. sc,

    This was a cir­cum­stance that would have been far bet­ter with NO guns, not with more.”

    A fatu­ous hypo­thet­i­cal in con­tra­dic­tion to what actu­ally hap­pened. It would have been a far bet­ter cir­cum­stance had Hitler not been appointed Chan­cel­lor of Ger­many in 1933.

    Ted Kaczyn­ski never used a gun. 

    The amount of plan­ning and expense this dog put into his crime was incred­i­ble. If guns were not avail­able, he could have very eas­ily made an ammo­nium nitrate/​fuel oil bomb in a cou­ple of #10 cans, scored, topped off with bb’s and with 1/​2″ pan­el­ing nails glued and taped to them. They would only weigh a cou­ple pounds, eas­ily con­cealed and trans­ported and fused. And could have killed dozens in a crowded loca­tion. A deter­mined killer is almost unstop­pable. This guy could pos­si­bly have been, once he started.

    I am NOT say­ing there is any per­fect answer, only pos­si­ble ones.

  13. Max — I under­stand that a scale of guns in terms of poten­tial harm might go some­thing like (please cor­rect me if I’m wrong)

    Machine Guns
    Auto­matic Rifles
    Snipers Rifles
    Machine Pis­tols
    Semi Auto­matic Assault Rifles
    Pump-​​Action Shot­guns
    Semi-​​Automatic Pis­tols
    .22 Cal­i­bre Rifles
    Shot­guns
    Revolvers

    In the UK, the only two of those that are still legal in any quan­tity is the Shot­gun and .22 cal­i­bre rifle, for use by farm­ers and game­keep­ers respec­tively.
    I am aware that both of those weapons can kill. But if this guy had walked in with a .22 cal­i­bre rifle and a pair of revolvers, rather than all the weaponry he had, it is likely that deaths would have been lower.
    I wanted to see where you would draw the line about weapons in civil­ian use. You wouldn’t even draw the line at fully auto­matic weapons.

  14. Max — when you say things like A fatu­ous hypo­thet­i­cal in con­tra­dic­tion to what actu­ally hap­pened.”, when it is in fact a hypo­thet­i­cal that in no-​​way con­tra­dicts what hap­pened, you come across as biased on this issue. Just saying.

  15. da,

    You wouldn’t even draw the line at fully auto­matic weapons.”

    Huh?? Where do you get that I say that? Yes, I would. Along with the two other spe­cific thing I men­tioned. I did not men­tion auto­matic weapons as they are ALREADY ille­gal, with those excep­tions I also men­tioned.
    So, on your list, draw a line between “machine pis­tols” and semi-​​automatics”.

    And your list is fairly accu­rate. The “sniper rifle” is a fal­lacy. A top qual­ity bolt action .30–06 (7.62) hunt­ing rifle with an appro­pri­ate scope makes an excel­lent sniper weapon. But snip­ing is an art form. Not just the gun/​scope com­bi­na­tion, but also the cartridge(s), specif­i­cally made, weighed and assem­bled for the pur­pose, a spot­ter and the train­ing on get­ting one­self into the loca­tion for the shot, all are a part of the equa­tion of a suc­cess­ful sniper. And patience. Lots and lots of patience. Not a job for moi

  16. da,

    Biased” on which issue?

    I am NOT biased towards peo­ple arm­ing them­selves to the teeth and going out and killing inno­cent peo­ple at random.

    I AM biased towards the US Con­sti­tu­tion and it’s def­er­ence to and recog­ni­tion the nat­ural right of Amer­i­can cit­i­zens to bear arms, prop­erly regulated.

  17. As regards what can be done ie pre­ven­tion. Noth­ing ie Okla­homa City, Columbine, Gabby Gif­ford, etc. as the gun lobby owns politicians.

    A ran­dom nut­case some­times slips through the cracks, even in friendly, “sane/​rational” Norway.

    In high school the­ol­ogy class we had a sar­cas­tic idiom ~ Many are starving/​dying in Biafra/​Bangladesh … so let’s form a dis­cus­sion group!

    If you’re not part of the solu­tion, you’re part of the prob­lem. Which is an exten­sion of/​compares to We the Peo­ple of the United States, in Order to form a more per­fect Union, estab­lish Jus­tice, insure domes­tic Tran­quil­ity, pro­vide for the com­mon defence, pro­mote the gen­eral Wel­fare, and secure the Bless­ings of Lib­erty to our­selves and our Posterity …

    Or vice-​​versa.

    >

    Did I men­tion Amer­i­cans love their guns?

    Find the cost of free­dom buried in the ground. Mother Earth will swal­low you, lay your body down!

    >

    We now return you to gun/​rifle/​semi-​​automatic clip/​drum capac­ity and whatnot …

  18. I find it amus­ing and a bit mys­ti­fy­ing that our con­ser­v­a­tive friends are quite silent on the mat­ter of gun own­er­ship and self-​​protection.

    My fur­ther par­tic­i­pa­tion shall recom­mence on the morrow.

  19. Max, dis­cre­tion is the bet­ter part of valor er bet­ter to be quiet and let folk think you’re a fool, than to open your mouth …

    ie at the con­ser­v­a­tive blog I fre­quent the Aurora mas­sacre dis­cus­sion ranged from con­ser­v­a­tive disin­gen­u­ous Obama sar­casm to child­ish con­ser­v­a­tive name call­ing towards lib­er­als who tried to offer solutions.

    Be thank­ful for small bless­ings! :)

    btw, the con blog I fre­quent is 9010 con­ser­v­a­tive which is half the fun! :D

  20. Max,

    The infa­mous LA Shootout gun­men used US-​​bought AKs ille­gally mod­i­fied to fire on auto­matic. They also had full-​​body bal­lis­tic armor suits, which were quite resis­tant to long-​​range gun­fire from the pis­tols of the police offi­cers that first showed up on scene. See­ing as how they didn’t man­age to actu­ally kill any­one, I’m some­what dubi­ous as to whether their hav­ing auto­matic rifles actu­ally made them any more deadly.

    It would seem to me that regard­less of his armor an armed the­ater­goer in the first few rows could have stopped the shooter — wear­ing a gas mask, his sit­u­a­tional aware­ness would have been poor and as most of the peo­ple there appar­ently hit the floor imme­di­ately there was prob­a­bly a clear line of fire. Emp­ty­ing a pistol’s mag­a­zine into him at close range would likely dis­able him through blunt trauma even if you missed his unar­mored arms and face.

    short­chain,

    The mil­i­tary actu­ally teaches quite elab­o­rate weapon-​​control drills to pre­vent sol­diers from shoot­ing each other by acci­dent while fight­ing at close range. I’ll not go into what pre­cisely they are.

    It strikes me that the only way to really clamp down on these kind of attacks beyond wait­ing for soci­ety to move on (spree mur­ders being quite rare in the past) is to either ban pri­vate pos­ses­sion of any­thing that could poten­tially be a deadly weapon or accept a great deal of rou­tine and intru­sive gov­ern­ment sur­veil­lance of our pri­vate lives to sift out poten­tial lone-​​wolf ter­ror­ists. Ret­ro­spec­tively, look­ing at this guy’s pur­chase records over the last three months (full of guns and explo­sive com­po­nents) would have made it obvi­ous that he was up to some­thing bad.

  21. George W. Bush Skip­ping Repub­li­can Con­ven­tion :shock:

    :roll:

    For­mer Pres­i­dent George W. Bush is skip­ping the Repub­li­can National Con­ven­tion next month in Tampa, Fla., where pre­sump­tive GOP nom­i­nee Mitt Rom­ney will offi­cially become the party’s standard-​​bearer.

    Pres­i­dent Bush was grate­ful for the invi­ta­tion,” his spokesman, Freddy Ford, said Fri­day in an email. He added that the 43rd pres­i­dent “is con­fi­dent that Mitt Rom­ney will be a great pres­i­dent. But he’s still enjoy­ing his time off the polit­i­cal stage and respect­fully declined the invi­ta­tion to go to Tampa.”

    Bush’s pres­ence at the con­ven­tion could under­cut Romney’s argu­ment that he knows bet­ter than Pres­i­dent Barack Obama when it comes to improv­ing the wob­bly econ­omy. A CBS News/​New York Times poll this month found more vot­ers say Bush deserves the bulk of the blame for the nation’s eco­nomic down­turn than think Obama bears a lot of the respon­si­bil­ity. Almost two-​​thirds of vot­ers think Romney’s eco­nomic poli­cies would mir­ror Bush’s at least somewhat.”

    >

    Who didnt see this one com­ing down 7th Ave. lol

  22. I am sad­dened by the loss of life but cheered by the Thin Blue Line between our lives and mayhem.

    But wait. Those 911 peo­ple are gub­mint work­ers. We need to fire them (or at least destroy their pen­sions), and return more tax money to the peo­ple. Why do you hate America?

  23. I’ve been away most of the day, mostly working.

    rgbact’s EC pre­dic­tions are amus­ing. And no, a VP choice — espe­cially the ones he sug­gests — will not win a sin­gle state for Rom­ney. Most of them (par­tic­u­larly the likes of Rubio or Ryan) will cause most unde­cided Amer­i­cans, par­tic­u­larly Indies, to scream in hor­ror — espe­cially once the Obama cam­paign is done pre­sent­ing some actual, you, know, facts about their posi­tions.

    You really don’t think if Paul Ryan gets picked, Rom­ney picks up 1% in WI?“

    No. I think Rom­ney loses about 3% — 5% in Wis­con­sin for this absurdly offen­sive pick. Ryan is pop­u­lar in his dis­trict the way Bach­mann is pop­u­lar in her dis­trict in Min­nesota. The rest of the state is far closer to sane. Ryan is an embar­rass­ment to the whole con­cept of gov­er­nance. I can only pray in my most fevered dreams that Rom­ney picks a trans­par­ent troglodyte sociopath like Ryan. Please, if there are gods, please.

  24. Morn­ing all.  Since da was up rather late last night (his time) , per­haps he’ll be a bit late join­ing us. To com­pen­sate, I’ve got The Open on the telly going in the background.

    shiloh, same obser­va­tion here. 

    A few of my FB friends and I were dis­cussing the same thing, AW, once we knew how he was accou­tered. Two of us have .40 S&W’s and we agreed those rounds would not pen­e­trate. We also agreed with your obser­va­tion, that each hit would be like a ham­mer blow. (Let some­one hit your torso a good pop with a ham­mer before you sneer: “So what.”) 10–15 of those would divert his atten­tion from his orig­i­nal intent. Set­ting up for a rush.

    The mil­i­tary actu­ally teaches quite elab­o­rate weapon-​​​​control drills to pre­vent sol­diers from shoot­ing each other by acci­dent while fight­ing at close range. I’ll not go into what pre­cisely they are.“
    For those who read/​saw Star­ship Troop­ers, it is NOT what hap­pened to Rico! (The first time, anyway.)

  25. AW,
    I did not intend to den­i­grate the mil­i­tary in my com­ment.  I’m sure they do the best they can, and do it rea­son­ably well — but the sad fact is that humans are not well suited to react with unerr­ing pre­ci­sion when decanted sud­denly into chaotic vio­lence, and their weapons tend to go off in direc­tions that, in a calmer moment, they would not have.

    Friendly fire” is still a sig­nif­i­cant cause of casu­al­ties in fire­fights.  How sig­nif­i­cant we do not presently know, because the mil­i­tary doesn’t make them read­ily avail­able.  We’ll prob­a­bly find out in about 20 years, if his­tory is any guide, but I’ll pre­dict up front that the per­cent­age will be well over 25.

    After all, we’re not talk­ing here about a squad who trained together, are in the proper order, and know where all their fel­lows are (let alone all the bystanders).

    Max,
    By accounts, the per­pe­tra­tor in Col­orado had access to bomb-​​making mate­r­ial, and actu­ally made bombs.  Yet his choice of weapons were guns.  A bomb is an uncer­tain weapon.  Take the fuse for exam­ple.  Too short, and you blow your­self up.  Too long, and peo­ple escape.

    You need a sub­stan­tial amount of test­ing to make a really reli­able bomb.  As the undie bomber discovered.

    And then there’s the psy­cho­log­i­cal aspect.  There’s a psy­cho­log­i­cal rea­son why the kind of per­son who com­mits these acts really wants to dress up as a movie bad­man and stride into a mass of peo­ple, mow­ing them down.  I sus­pect that it just wouldn’t be as com­pelling to use explosives.

    As you say, a per­son whose only pur­pose is to kill will likely find a way.  There is no per­fect solu­tion.  Some­how, though, I sin­cerely doubt that adding more guns to the sit­u­a­tion will improve it.  (That’s been tried for a long time, and I don’t see the improve­ment.)  You have recently pointed to other coun­tries in dis­cussing health care, yet you seem unwill­ing to point to other coun­tries in assess­ing the ben­e­fits of tighter gun con­trol.  I won­der why that is?

  26. Michael,

    For what it’s worth, I think Rubio is a par­tic­u­larly artic­u­late (albeit mis­guided) politi­cian. And I think he could be a seri­ous force in 2016, par­tic­u­larly if Obama is reëlected this year. In many ways, the Marco Rubio of 2012 strikes me as the Repub­li­can ver­sion of the Barack Obama of 2004.

    I think the Repub­li­can party has the best crop of poten­tial pres­di­den­tial can­di­dates that I can ever remem­ber. Paul Ryan and Rubio are ris­ing stars.  They’re young, smart, and ener­getic.  Both would make out­stand­ing Pres­i­dents.  Same with Christie, Daniels, and Allen West.  I think Kasich, Walker, and Nicki Hal­ley are 3 of the best Gov­er­nors in the coun­try. It’s a good time to be a Republican.

    Com­pare that crop to Repub­li­can can­di­dates of the past like Fred Thomp­son, Huck­abee, Ron Paul, Newt, Rom­ney, etc.  There’s no comparison.

  27. GROG,
    Allen West?  Really?  Could you elu­ci­date the attrac­tion there?  All I see from him are reports of state­ments that would make Michele Bach­mann blush with embar­rass­ment (and that’s say­ing something!)


  28. yet you seem unwill­ing to point to other coun­tries in assess­ing the ben­e­fits of tighter gun con­trol.  I won­der why that is?“

    Actu­ally, sc, I HAVE! If you review my com­ments with dawolf, you would see. (1) A Con­sti­tu­tional recog­ni­tion and pro­tec­tion of an pre-​​existing nat­ural right of Amer­i­cans. (2) Cul­tural and his­tor­i­cal dif­fer­ences.
    You real­ize that, until about the time of the Amer­i­can Rev­o­lu­tion, divine right of kings held forth in many Euro­pean coun­tries. Weapons, in the hands of com­mon­ers, were strictly con­trolled. The sov­er­eign OWNED ALL THE LAND and the game thereon. Com­mon­ers could be, and were, EXECUTED for hunt­ing, defined as poach­ing, the kings game! Our Founders made sure to avoid any rep­e­ti­tion of such an even­tu­al­ity (not just the hunt­ing part).

  29. Max,
    I’m think­ing of coun­tries a bit more com­pa­ra­ble to the USA and a bit more recent than two hun­dred years ago.  Aus­tralia.  Canada.  New Zealand.

  30. sc,

    Not try­ing to be obsti­nate here, but do any of those coun­tries have a Con­sti­tu­tional ref­er­ence rec­og­niz­ing the right of gun ownership?

    One can­not com­pare apples and kiwi fruit.

    Per­haps you would wish to make YOUR argu­ment AGAINST the Con­sti­tu­tion and why it may need to be changed? Because I will con­tinue to return to that same foun­da­tion. I cau­tion you, ANY argu­ment you can make about remov­ing a nat­ural right, with the chang­ing of a few words, can also be used in efforts to restrict the right to vote. Think about it.

    I am NOT say­ing that there are not con­se­quences to a right, and cor­re­spond­ing respon­si­bil­ity. Eng­land has a law for­bid­ding pub­lish­ing infor­ma­tion of crim­i­nal pro­ceed­ings. That law would be for­bid­den in the US. There are all sorts of con­se­quences to hav­ing a Con­sti­tu­tional free­dom of the press.

  31. Max,
    You are still stuck in the 18th cen­tury, with your talk about “nat­ural right”.  Gov­ern­ment is the embod­i­ment of pol­i­tics, and pol­i­tics is the art of the pos­si­ble.  There is noth­ing sacred in the par­tic­u­lar word­ing of the Con­sti­tu­tion, as the Roberts court so recently dis­cov­ered in its re-​​interpretation of the 2nd amendment.

    Besides, we’re not going to get any­where if you inter­pret my obser­va­tion that the sit­u­a­tion would not have been helped by adding more guns, but would have been made bet­ter by remov­ing them as for­bid­ding the pos­ses­sion of firearms in toto.  Per­haps there’s a mid­dle ground between let­ting any yahoo pur­chase sev­eral pistals, a semi-​​automatic and a drum mag­a­zine, and thou­sands of rounds of ammu­ni­tion with­out so much as a ques­tion … and totally for­bid­ding pos­ses­sion of firearms?

    If there is such a mid­dle ground, we’ll not find it by pre­tend­ing there isn’t one.

  32. sc,

    I cau­tion you NOT to make ad hominem state­ments as you well know that I can give as good as I can take.

    You have offered ZERO argu­ment against my, AND the Constitution’s, “18th cen­tury” posi­tions. Again, I call on you MAKE that argu­ment in a con­vinc­ing man­ner and save your opin­ions about me for your pri­vate mus­ings. Both Heller and McDon­ald did NOT require a “rein­ter­pre­ta­tion” of the Con­sti­tu­tion, but were affir­ma­tions of long held beliefs going back to before the Revolution.

    You also need to clear your thoughts before mak­ing asser­tions about my posi­tion. “you inter­pret my obser­va­tion that the sit­u­a­tion would not have been helped by adding more guns, but would have been made bet­ter by remov­ing them as for­bid­ding the pos­ses­sion of firearms in toto“As I have NEVER held that, and have repeat­edly opined that rea­son­able restric­tions may apply, includ­ing (should you care to recall) limit quan­tity over time pur­chas­ing, back­ground checks for ALL sales, includ­ing pri­vate sales between indi­vid­u­als. I would imple­ment that by requir­ing the buyer to go to a licensed dealer to do the paper­work and by hav­ing the seller return a form dis­clos­ing the sale. Pretty much as we do in Texas and Cal­i­for­nia when sell­ing a car.

    My friend, I am not pre­tend­ing any­thing, but it seems that you are doing so when you accuse me falsely.

    So, the bur­den is on you to make YOUR argu­ment as it is YOU who wishes to change the sta­tus quo. Such is the tra­di­tional man­ner of desir­ing legal changes. Some­thing which you have yet to do.

  33. Max is cor­rect that SCOTUS has ruled the Sec­ond Amend­ment says there can be few restric­tions on gun own­er­ship enacted by law.

    All we need to do is enact an amend­ment that declares the Sec­ond to be voided. Then Con­gress may pass what­ever laws are appro­pri­ate to restrict gun vio­lence. Whether one approves of gun own­er­ship or not, it would cer­tainly be pos­si­ble to con­tinue allow­ing legit­i­mate and rea­son­able own­er­ship and usage of firearms. What is stand­ing in the way of that — and in the way of even hav­ing a ratio­nal con­ver­sa­tion on the topic — is an archaic and obso­lete bit of eighteenth-​​century regulation.

  34. Max — the biased com­ment was in ref­er­ence to your say­ing that no guns at all and the same thing still would have hap­pened. Clearly, with no guns at all, it would have been much harder for the attack to hap­pen, and it would have hap­pened com­pletely differently.

    Why should semi-​​automatic assault weapons be allowed? They didn’t even exist at the time of the con­sti­tu­tion. I think (from a UK per­spec­tive, so I really don’t know this sub­ject), allow­ing the “right to bear arms” to mean “the right to bear arms which are broadly sim­i­lar to those at the sign­ing of the con­sti­tu­tion” would make sense. I think that would mean sin­gle shot rifles, shot­guns and hand­guns basically.

  35. and my point regard­ing auto­matic weapons — even if you need the sig­na­ture of the police etc, what is the logic behind allow­ing ANY fully auto­matic weapons into the hands of civil­ians? At all?

  36. grog’s laugh­able post aside …

    It’s a good time to be a Republican.

    Whereas I will agree because of con­ser­v­a­tive intense hatred of Obama, con bil­lion­aires are will­ing to give what­ever $$$ it takes to defeat him in Nov. But their deep hatred will ulti­mately con­sume them and they most likely will implode.

    So $$$ and all con­sum­ing hatred = a good time to be Rep. Con­grats grog! :)

    >

    hmm, when Obama wins re-​​election which grog has stated is a high prob­a­bil­ity, will grog still think it’s a good time to be Repub­li­can ?!? Rhetorical.

    btw grog, a cou­ple more lib­eral to mod­er­ate Supreme Court jus­tices. :) Indeed, a good time to be Rep in the comin’ years lol.

    >

    Also grog there’s demo­graph­ics ie between 2008 and 2012, the nation­wide older white vote has decrease by 3% and the younger ethnic/​minority vote has increased by 3%. And of course this trend will con­tinue going for­ward. hmm, Obama’s cam­paign theme!

    This is why cons/​Reps have been expe­di­tiously pass­ing need­less new voter require­ment laws meant to dis­en­fran­chise older/​minority etc. vot­ers who usu­ally vote Dem. As sup­press­ing the vote is their only hope in 2012 and going for­ward. :D

    ie a racist solu­tion in search of a polit­i­cal problem!

    This is your new real­ity grog!

    Happy trails going for­ward

  37. Max,
    The state­ment that the SC merely affir­med “long held beliefs” is a real doozy.  Yeah, it over­turned decades of set­tled law, but it agreed with the NRA’s long held beliefs…

    Look, you want to broaden the argu­ment beyond all rea­son, but what you actu­ally said that started all this was that you thought some peo­ple at the the­ater who were car­ry­ing might have reduced the num­ber of casu­al­ties.  I have shown that this was a ridicu­lous idea.  I take your deflec­tion of the argu­ment into gen­eral blath­er­ing about gun con­trol to be a tacit accep­tance of my argument.

    As for the gen­eral argu­ment, I agree that we need rea­son­able restric­tions on gun own­er­ship and I will leave it at that — because the NRA will see to it that no such restric­tions will ever make it through, so argu­ing about it is senseless.

  38. GROG,

    Paul Ryan and Rubio are ris­ing stars. They’re young, smart, and ener­getic. Both would make out­stand­ing Presidents.

    Ryan would be a far worse Pres­i­dent than you think, and not merely because I dis­agree with him on pol­icy. He’s a pol­icy wonk, and pol­icy wonks have a hard time head­ing up the exec­u­tive branch. That was Wilson’s biggest prob­lem, and also Carter’s.

    Same with Christie, Daniels, and Allen West.

    Christie would also make a ter­ri­ble Pres­i­dent. He has a brash­ness that can play in Jer­sey, but not many other places. Amer­i­cans like some­one who tells it like it is, until they are told some­thing they don’t like. Either Christie hasn’t fig­ured that out yet, or he didn’t run because he has.

    Allen West is pretty much the Florida equiv­a­lent to Bach­mann. I can’t see why you think he’d be so great. He trades on anger.

    Com­pare that crop to Repub­li­can can­di­dates of the past like Fred Thomp­son, Huck­abee, Ron Paul, Newt, Rom­ney, etc.

    I’m afraid you might be hav­ing trou­ble remem­ber­ing how good Thomp­son, Huck­abee, and Newt looked when they were at their prime.

  39. #138

    da, except­ing for licenced col­lec­tors per­haps, you’ll get no argu­ment from me.

  40. MW

    But p555 says Christie has charisma lol.

    ok, ok, many peo­ple also think Don­ald Trump has charisma! :roll:

    >

    Repeat­ing the obvi­ous which Ed Rollins stated quite elo­quently lol ~ I wish the Repub­li­can party was less old, white and fat!

  41. #137

    Umm, yes, on that. I refer you to 07/​07/​05. How many guns were used to kill 52 and injure 700?

    Nei­ther did smoke­less pow­der, revolvers, auto­mo­biles, air­planes, the abil­ity to break free from Earth’s grav­ity or radio/​TV exist in 1787. Does that mean we can­not use those things? A non sequitur


  42. Max is cor­rect that SCOTUS has ruled the Sec­ond Amend­ment says there can be few restric­tions on gun own­er­ship enacted by law.“

    That’s NOT exactly what the SCOTUS said. In Heller, the deci­sion was that in fed­eral juris­dic­tion, laws for­bid­ding law­ful gun own­er­ship, or essen­tially doing same through requir­ing trig­ger locks, etc., IN THE HOME, were uncon­sti­tu­tional. While in McDon­ald, the deci­sion said that the same applied in state and local jurisdictions.

    The SCOTUS has repeat­edly allowed for rea­son­able laws restrict­ing cer­tain aspects of gun own­er­ship, includ­ing the ban on fully auto­matic weapons, licens­ing require­ments, etc.! (See Heller at 54.)

  43. Yes, Max, as I said, SCOTUS inter­preted the Sec­ond as dis­al­low­ing most restric­tions on firearms. There are a few that are still allowed. We’re agree­ing with each other on that.

    If you inter­pret “most” and “few” dif­fer­ently from how I do, that’s cool. I can think of enor­mous num­bers of restric­tions that the SCOTUS rul­ing would dis­al­low — far more than are allowed — so it’s easy for me to jus­tify use of those words.

  44. A well reg­u­lated Mili­tia, being nec­es­sary to the secu­rity of a free State, the right of the peo­ple to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

    So, okay… let’s go with that. What are the essen­tial char­ac­ter­is­tics of a “well-​​regulated” mili­tia? Well.. it shows up when required to. It accepts dis­ci­pline with­out ques­tion, fol­lows orders and sub­mits to reg­u­lar train­ing. If it didn’t, this mili­tia could never main­tain the secu­rity of a free state.

    So let’s reg­u­late this mili­tia to make sure it can ful­fill its duties. Let’s require that every­body who owns  a firearm has to make sure that firearm is reg­is­tered with and accept­able to the com­man­ders of the mili­tia. (Who would they be, exactly?) And then let’s require all these mili­tia mem­bers to sub­mit them­selves for rig­or­ous reg­u­lar train­ing in the main­te­nance, use and safety of their weapons, plus mil­i­tary drill and exer­cises. Say… one full day a month (that was the stan­dard for mili­tia mem­bers back when the con­sti­tu­tion was writ­ten) and if they miss, they have to sur­ren­der their firearm, pay a fine and get kicked out of the militia.

    Because when the Con­sti­tu­tion refers to a “well-​​regulated mili­tia,” it surely can’t mean 200 mil­lion untrained, unreg­is­tered peo­ple run­ning around the coun­try with lethal weapons in their pock­ets, waist­bands and hand­bags. In fact that is exactly the OPPOSITE of a well-​​regulated militia.

  45. Allen West is pretty much the Florida equiv­a­lent to Bachmann.

    It’s hard for me to believe any­one is as far off the rails as Bach­mann. Her lat­est rav­ings are mind bog­gling. She needs to be kept in a room with mat­tresses on the walls.

    She’s gone beyond crazy talk into true McCarthy ter­ri­tory. The woman is a menace.

    This is the prob­lem with the absurd overblown rhetoric we hear every day. When true threats appear, point­ing them out sounds like merely one more round of para­noid hyper­bole. Per­haps that’s why they do it.

    What Amer­ica does have going for it in this case is that Bach­mann has no real power or author­ity. Of course, McCarthy didn’t when he got started, either, and Bach­mann is (or at least, has been) good at rais­ing money.

    Do remem­ber — Bach­mann is the loon who founded the House Tea Party Cau­cus. If I iden­ti­fied myself with the Tea Party, I’d be doing every­thing in my power to dis­avow Bach­mann right now.

  46. In fact, Bach­mann is rais­ing quite a lot of money off this lat­est atroc­ity. There are  peo­ple who love her hate­ful schtick so much that they’ll actu­ally dig deep and sac­ri­fice to keep it going.

    Hor­ri­ble to con­tem­plate… but sadly true.

  47. You are quite right, fil­istro. That’s why I say the woman is a true men­ace. She is very good at get­ting the crazy folk riled up. With the Repub­li­can lead­er­ship even afraid to take on the Tea Party, her ugly and hate­ful rhetoric can wind up caus­ing some real dam­age to our democ­racy, the same way McCarthy did.

    I am heart­ened to see John McCain and John Boehner both con­demn­ing Bachmann’s lat­est moves. I hope it’s not too lit­tle, too late. If these guys have again found their spine, and if she keeps up her xeno­pho­bic jin­go­ism, it could end her career. With any luck, she’ll take the whole Tea Party with her. If they don’t dis­tance them­selves from her big­otry, they could suf­fer what­ever fate she does.

    But that’s a long way ahead of our­selves. At present, she’s still con­vinced her hate will play well, and it is far too early to see if she’s right or wrong.

  48. Max, 0707 killed 52 peo­ple. That’s about 18,000 a year. It was a one off.
    http://​en​.wikipedia​.org/​w​i​k​i​/​G​u​n​_​v​i​o​l​e​n​c​e​_​i​n​_​t​h​e​_​U​n​i​t​e​d​_​S​t​a​tes 

    About 12,600 deaths in the US per year from gun­shots (I’m leav­ing out sui­cides).
    UK, 138 (I don’t know if that includes sui­cides or not), which would pro-​​rate to maybe 700 in the US, or about 5% of the level.
    http://​www​.gun​pol​icy​.org/​f​i​r​e​a​r​m​s​/​r​e​g​i​o​n​/​u​n​i​t​e​d​-​k​i​n​g​dom 

    Legal guns cause more gun deaths. Pretty sim­ple really.

  49. So let’s say Daniels was his VP choice, and the elec­tion were held next
    Tues­day. You think all seven of those states would go Romney?

    Its 8…and yes. Thats just based on my own quicky model that has 2 key ele­ments 1) It ignores PPP polling 2) It assumes Rom­ney gets the major­ity of unde­cid­eds. My cur­rent model actu­ally has NV closer than PA, but I assume Daniels (or Ryan or Port­man or Paw­lenty or) would help more in PA
     

    Obvi­ously, these are razor thin mar­gins and make major assumptions.….which just indi­cates that things are very close and any­one rest­ing on a pre­sumed 2 point lead this far out is crazy.

  50. rgb… we are sud­denly see­ing quite major shifts at Gallup’s daily tracker and Intrade.

    Gallup has given Obama a 4-​​point advan­tage in the head-​​to-​​head for the past  2 days run­ning… the best in months…and Intrade within the past two days has sud­denly widened his lead from 10 points to 20.

    The only recent event to account for Romney’s suud­den ero­sion, IMO, is the prob­lem of those tax returns. Both polit­i­cal observers and the gen­eral pub­lic have abruptly come to the real­iza­tion that Rom­ney is in real bind over this (and a pretty grim, hope­less one, too)  and his elec­toral hopes are fad­ing quickly as result.

    What can he do to fix this? Noth­ing that I can see. This is truly a sit­u­a­tion where he’s damned if does, and damned if he doesn’t.

    You’d think Rom­ney him­self, and espe­cially the Repub­li­can party, would have seen this com­ing before they gave their nom­i­na­tion to the guy. It’s hardly some issue com­ing out of left field, after all.

  51. fili,

    ” … the Right of the Peo­ple to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed”.

    OK, noth­ing unclear about that. No equiv­o­ca­tion. There is an exist­ing Right belong­ing to the Peo­ple, which shall not be infringed. Easy.

    A well reg­u­lated Mili­tia, being nec­es­sary to the secu­rity of a free state …“
    OK, noth­ing unclear about that either. 

    No, let’s see how that has been put into prac­ti­cal use his­tor­i­cally: The pas­sage of the Mili­tia Acts dur­ing the 2nd Con­gress. (And later amended by addi­tional Acts) Those Acts pro­vided for the ESTABLISHMENT of state mili­tias. NOT pre­sum­ing that such pre­ex­isted! And HOW was that mili­tia con­sti­tuted? By con­scrip­tion. Con­scrip­tion of whom? Of white, male cit­i­zens ALREADY EXERCISING their 2nd Amend­ment right. In fact, the 2nd Act pro­vided that cit­i­zens THEMSELVES pos­sess, at a min­i­mum: those with mus­kets: cer­tain other equip­ment, pow­der and ammu­ni­tion; and for those own­ing rifles: cer­tain other equip­ment require­ments. All for when they may be called into ser­vice, whether for train­ing or for actual com­bat. There were cer­tain exemptions.

    It is evi­dent from the lan­guage of the Mili­tia Acts that Amer­i­cans would be  in pos­ses­sion of arms. “pro­vide him­self” is what it says. It is also true that pis­tols were not a part of the required equip­ment, but no men­tion is made for­bid­ding the car­ry­ing or use of pis­tols. The Founders and the Con­gress KNEW pis­tols existed. In fact, sev­eral had used pis­tols in duels! 

    The evi­dence thus is that they accepted cit­i­zens would “keep and bear arms” of var­i­ous types. Noth­ing pre­cluded female cit­i­zens from doing same, and women, espe­cially on the fron­tiers, were adept at firearms, because the men could be away hunt­ing or oth­er­wise, and they may well need to defend their home and chil­dren. But they were not con­scripted into the militia.

    Sub­se­quent amend­ments to the Mili­tia Acts (1862, 1903) reor­ga­nized the sys­tem, but noth­ing in those Acts barred cit­i­zens from “the right to keep and bear arms”, as it was rec­og­nized that that right is natural.

  52. # 151

    Again I ask: How many guns were used on 0707? You said I was biased and I give you a case in your home coun­try. No bias intended. 

    it was one-​​off

    Tell that to the 52, I’m sure they, and their fam­i­lies, will be con­soled by the unique­ness. Again, my point was a deter­mined killer will find a way!

    Legal guns cause more gun deaths. Pretty sim­ple really.”

    Yes. And I have never argued dif­fer­ently. Ille­gal guns will kill peo­ple as well.

    And alco­hol related deaths exceed gun deaths in the US by about 2–1. Alco­hol con­sump­tion is not a right rec­og­nized by the US Con­sti­tu­tion. Ban­ning alco­hol would reduce the num­ber of deaths by more than an out­right ban on guns, so why don’t we do that?

    Oh yes. I remem­ber now.

  53. This is the prob­lem with the absurd overblown rhetoric we hear every day.

    Yes, we know how you daily fight against overblown rhetoric and for rea­soned dis­course. Now please tell me more about Paul Ryan and him being a troglodyte sociopath.

    Gallup has given Obama a 4-​​​​point advan­tage in the head-​​​​to-​​​​head for the past  2 days run­ning… the best in months

    More like best in about 2 weeks.…and it was a tie just 2 days ago. Ah, cherry pick­ing polls is fun.

    http://​www​.gallup​.com/​p​o​l​l​/​e​l​e​c​t​i​o​n​.​a​spx

  54. Max… quite so. I would be per­fectly con­tent if all own­ers of firearms were required to reg­is­ter such own­er­ship with the state, along with their stated and signed will­ing­ness to serve in defense of that “free state” if called upon.

    After all, the “well-​​regulated mili­tia” is men­tioned before the “right to bear arms.” In fact, the REASON given for the “right to bear arms” is not for per­sonal safety, sport or hunt­ing. It is to main­tain “a well-​​regulated militia.”

    Now, you can wish, hope or assume it is also meant to refer to sport, hunt­ing, or per­sonal safety. But because the Con­sti­tu­tion is an immutable rather than liv­ing doc­u­ment, I guess you’re stuck with what it actu­ally says.

  55. Fili — last time you spent weeks blath­er­ing about the “death of the Repub­li­can party as we know it” the ele­phants pro­ceeded to gain 63 House seats and 5 Sen­ate seats in the strongest off-​​year elec­tion win since 1948.  So spare us your breath­less prog­nos­ti­ca­tions, please?

    The cam­paigner in chief has out­spent Rom­ney by a 2–1 ratio for a month (not even count­ing all the tax­payer dol­lars he has spent cam­paign­ing in the last 8 months) and the best he has to show for it is a 4 point lead among RV?

    http://​www​.wash​ing​ton​post​.com/​p​o​l​i​t​i​c​s​/​p​r​e​s​i​d​e​n​t​-​o​b​a​m​a​-​s​p​e​n​t​-​t​w​i​c​e​-​a​s​-​m​u​c​h​-​a​s​-​m​i​t​t​-​r​o​m​n​e​y​-​i​n​-​j​u​n​e​/​2​0​1​2​/​0​7​/​2​0​/​g​J​Q​A​i​0​d​v​y​W​_​s​t​o​r​y​.​h​tml

    Your “sud­den surge” is sta­tis­ti­cal noise.

     

  56. park­sie… I sel­dom blather, and being a very fit and tire­less hiker, I am almost never breath­less :-)

    I do see a sud­den sharp ero­sion in Romney’s num­bers, and in the absence of any other dis­cernible recent cause, I think it must relate to the prob­lem of the tax returns… a prob­lem which is only going to get worse.

  57. Since this is open mic, I have a ques­tion for all who con­sider them­selves as hav­ing foresight.

    Even pretty staunch Repub­li­can sup­port­ers have to agree that the strat­egy of the GOP in the last 4 years has been to deny, so far as they were able, any suc­cesses to the Obama admin­is­tra­tion espe­cially, and the Democ­rats in general.

    They have even car­ried this to an extent which arguably has dam­aged the repub­lic (as in last year’s debt ceil­ing fight).  They’re doing that right now with their refusal to spend any time on any leg­is­la­tion that would actu­ally enhance the job market.

    Now, put on your pre­dic­tion hats: what do you sup­pose will be the future polit­i­cal fights down the road if they are rewarded for cut­ting the throat of the repub­lic for elec­toral advantage?

  58. Max, 77 was a group, work­ing together. Since then we’ve had such events as the shoe bomber, an attempt to ram raid an air­port with a car full of explo­sives, and mis­cel­la­neous others.

    If guns were freely allowed in this coun­try I firmly believe we’d have had more deaths than 77

    You can’t make things 100% safe. You can make them safer. Get­ting rid of guns makes things safer — show me a UK ver­sion of Columbine or this recent attack, since we insti­tuted tougher gun laws.

  59. dawolf is absolutely right about one thing — since the design of mod­ern semi­au­to­matic weapons such as the Glock is specif­i­cally intended to mul­ti­ply the harm a sin­gle wielder of them can do, guns increase the dam­age a lone gun­man can do.

    These weapons were unimag­ined in the days when our Con­sti­tu­tion was designed.  The idea that a lone indi­vid­ual could walk into a crowded hall and mow down fifty peo­ple would have been laughed at.  After his pis­tols were fired, even if they had been double-​​barreled, and given the accu­racy of pis­tols in those days, 1 per­son seri­ously wounded and another three missed or with flesh wounds, as he reached for his sword, he’d be rushed and captured.

    The idea that the weapons of the days of the Amer­i­can Rev­o­lu­tion were com­pa­ra­ble to today’s read­ily avail­able ones is asinine.

  60. Per­haps the answer is as much soci­etal and cul­tural, maybe more so, than the guns.

    BTW, peo­ple, revolvers will fire as fast as you pull the trig­ger, just as a Glock will. So, even though not semi-​​automatic by def­i­n­i­tion, their action is. Just lim­ited to 6–8 rounds ver­sus 10–15 or more.

    Semi-​​automatic weapons have been around for a cen­tury. The Colt 1911 held 9 rounds 100 years ago. Even auto­mat­ics, as the Thomp­son, but except for the Prohibition-​​era gangs, peo­ple just didn’t use guns for mass mur­der. Not until the late six­ties with Char­lie Whit­man, and remem­ber how shocked peo­ple were? Speck, DeSalvo? No guns. 

    What hap­pened, begin­ning in the late 60’s, that caused the shift in mindset?

  61. Max,
    Hav­ing fired a revolver, yes, you can get off sev­eral shots as fast as you can pull the trig­ger.  With absolutely ter­ri­ble chances of hit­ting any­thing smaller than an ele­phant at 10 feet.  There may be a few peo­ple who, with a lot of prac­tice (years), can do bet­ter, but not many.

    There’s a rea­son why the mil­i­tary sidearm is not a revolver.

    One of the rea­sons Pro­hi­bi­tion was elim­i­nated was the grow­ing vio­lence and preva­lence of guns asso­ci­ated with it, you know.

    Coin­ci­den­tally with the intro­duc­tion and wide­spread avail­abil­ity of semi­au­to­matic hand­guns in the USA we see the rise of attempts to con­trol them.

  62. Now please tell me more about Paul Ryan and him being a troglodyte sociopath.

    You think that’s overblown? Have you read his bud­get pro­pos­als? I was being kind.

  63. What can he do to fix this? Noth­ing that I can see. This is truly a
    sit­u­a­tion where he’s damned if does, and damned if he doesn’t.

    What I think Rom­ney is pray­ing for is that he can sim­ply wait it out. He’s count­ing on the short atten­tion span, and short mem­ory, of the Amer­i­can voter. In other words, he is assum­ing vot­ers are stoopid, and is count­ing on that for his elec­tion chances.

    But then, that’s been his cam­paign all along. The CEO model he so likes is that of a feu­dal manor lord who reaps prof­its from the peas­antry while despoil­ing them. Such hered­i­tary nobil­ity assumed it was their divine right to rule get rich off the com­mon folk, whom they have always viewed as lit­tle more than pack animals.

    Of course Amer­i­cans would vote for that, right? After all, they are cruel even to them­selves and each other — look how eager they are to end pub­lic pen­sions and to pre­vent poor peo­ple from get­ting health care.

  64. rgbact,

    Thats just based on my own quicky model that has 2 key ele­ments 1) It ignores PPP polling 2) It assumes Rom­ney gets the major­ity of undecideds.

    And, oddly enough, if I use a quicky model that counts only PPP polling and assumes Obama gets the unde­cid­eds, Obama ends up with more elec­toral votes than in 2008. :roll:

    I have cho­sen my model care­fully, rec­og­niz­ing the biases of the polling agen­cies with enough data with which to tease out those biases. It’s not hard to do. Throw­ing out data that you don’t like is the first step in con­fir­ma­tion bias. You’d do well to be a lit­tle more dis­pas­sion­ate if your goal is pre­dic­tion rather than cheerleading.

    Obvi­ously, these are razor thin mar­gins and make major assumptions

    My assump­tions are hardly major. If the elec­tion were held next Tues­day, Obama would win, period. But it’s not going to be next week, and there is another reces­sion on the hori­zon. The only major assump­tion I’m mak­ing is that the reces­sion doesn’t become evi­dent to the bulk of vot­ers until after the elec­tion. That’s it.

  65. Now please tell me more about Paul Ryan and him being a troglodyte sociopath.

    I don’t think he is one. But I do think he’s a pol­icy wonk who is look­ing for sim­ple solu­tions to com­plex prob­lems. They solve the imme­di­ate issues, yes, but at costs that appear to me to be far too great to bear.

  66. And, oddly enough, if I use a quicky model that counts only PPP
    polling and assumes Obama gets the unde­cid­eds, Obama ends up with more
    elec­toral votes than in 2008.

    So if you look at my key assumptions.….and assume the exact oppo­site about them.…you get the exact oppo­site. You find that odd, do ya? Obama get­ting all the unde­cid­eds doesn’t sound rea­son­able based on his­tory though. I think my assump­tion is far more real­is­tic, but I admit its just my guess. Dick Mor­ris says most unde­cid­eds go to chal­lengers (espe­cially if he’s non scary), so I’ll take his word for it until I hear better.

    Throw­ing out data that you don’t like is the first step in con­fir­ma­tion bias.

    Sorry, PPP has gen­er­ally been WAY off from every other poll­ster this year. I don’t think any­one can fairly look at their data and believe its not gen­er­ally use­less (or they know some­thing noone else does). Given they poll more than anyone.….that gives most mod­els a poten­tially fatal flaw.

  67. Dick Mor­ris says most unde­cid­eds go to chal­lengers (espe­cially if
    he’s non scary), so I’ll take his word for it until I hear better.

    You’ll hear bet­ter on Novem­ber 6. In the mean time, be aware this meme has been around for a long while. So has the oppo­site meme, that unde­cid­eds tend to stick with the devil they know. What you’re talk­ing about, as Michael says, is con­fir­ma­tion bias, not some law of voting.

    The most ratio­nal course would seem to me, tak­ing all things as equal, to treat unde­cid­eds  as unde­cided, and (in the absense of other com­pelling argu­ments) split them more or less evenly, or per­haps split them in ways sim­i­lar to how the rest of their demo­graphic /​ geo­graphic group is split.

    I sup­pose one could make an argu­ment for elim­i­nat­ing the out­liers on both sides of the polling uni­verse — that would prob­a­bly be both Ras­mussen and PPP — but a bet­ter course is prob­a­bly like Michael and Nate do, which is to account for any­thing that appears to be house effects in their pre­vi­ous polling.

    rgbact, what your “model” appears to do is not only to reject data you don’t like, but also to invent data that’s more to your pref­er­ence. It thus isn’t really a “model” in the usual sense of the word.

  68. Dick I like suckin’ toes! Mor­ris pre­dicted McCain would eas­ily defeat Obama in 2008. Dick I have a Clin­ton fetish! Mor­ris also pre­dicted Hillary would never run for NY senator.

    Inter­est­ing rgbact rails against PPP while at the same time quot­ing a frickin’ idiot who works for fixednoise!

    Apolo­gies to frickin’ fools …

  69. The most ratio­nal course would seem to me, tak­ing all things as equal, to treat unde­cid­eds  as undecided,

    Maybe. I take the posi­tion that when polls show the gen­eral pop­u­lace is very unhappy with the country’s direction.….more unde­cid­eds spell bad news for an incum­bent. Its an assump­tion. You’re free to dis­agree, as I am with oth­ers.  PPP makes assump­tions on which vot­ers will turnout in their polling. That is the nature of mak­ing a fore­cast far into the future. Then we can all “cor­rect” our mod­els as Nov approaches and emerg­ing data proves that our ear­lier assump­tions were hairbrained.

  70. It should be noted that mur­der rates are not strongly cor­re­lated with the avail­abil­ity of weapons — Brazil has much stricter gun laws than the United States yet a dras­ti­cally higher mur­der rate, while the Swiss state pro­vides firearms and ammu­ni­tion to large sec­tions of the pop­u­la­tion and yet its mur­der rate is very low. And if I may reach into his­tory, a large por­tion of the Edo-​​period Japan­ese pop­u­la­tion was heav­ily armed and the coun­try was gen­er­ally very peace­ful, whereas con­tem­po­rary Europe was quite dan­ger­ous. As such dawolf’s asser­tion that the British government’s stance on firearms does any­thing beyond incon­ve­nience law-​​abiding British sub­jects who may wish to own a weapon would seem to be false — mur­der rates are cul­tural rather than hav­ing any­thing to do with avail­abil­ity of weapons. In fact, the US vio­lent crime rate has fallen sub­stan­tially coin­ci­dent with the loos­en­ing of gun laws in much of the coun­try over the last decade.

  71. Let’s recap, shall we:

    Rea­gan was a very pop­u­lar (2) time gov. of CA.

    Rea­gan almost defeated an incum­bent pres­i­dent in the 1976 Rep pri­mary. Whereas mit­tens got anni­hi­lated by another RINO, McCain, in the 2008 Rep pri­mary. He won the 2012 Rep pri­mary by default.

    Rea­gan was staight out of the actor’s stu­dio both lit­er­ally and figuratively.

    Carter was a very weak pres­i­dent ie high infla­tion, high gas prices, failed Iran hostage res­cue mis­sion, etc. etc.

    Kennedy chal­lenged Carter for the Dem nomination.

    Rea­gan was basi­cally tied w/​Carter in the polls until the last week when the polls broke for him and yet he only received 50.7% w/​Anderson get­ting 6.6%.

    >

    mit­tens ain’t no Dutch er Bar­tles’ demi-​​god!

    >

    Vot­ers still blame Bush43 more than Obama for the bad econ­omy. Again, Obama’s state-​​of-​​the-​​art ground game/​GOTV is up and run­nin’ and mit­tens has teabag­ger astro­turf on a good day.

    mit­tens will have the $$$ advan­tage but, nothin’ kills a bad prod­uct quicker than good advertising.

    mit­tens has no answer re: Obama’s Bain Cap­i­tal attack.

    mit­tens has no ratio­nal answer re: not releas­ing his tax returns.

    mit­tens won MA gov. race w/​49% run­ning against a weak can­di­date who had a dif­fi­cult pri­mary and was out­spent by Rom­ney exponentially.

    mit­tens has no answer re: his record as MA gov. ie leav­ing office w/​a 35% job approval rating.

    mit­tens didn’t save the Salt Lake City Olympics, the Amer­i­can tax­payer did.

    mit­tens is soooo uncom­fort­able in his own skin it’s cringeworthy!

    >

    con­ser­v­a­tives hate/​despise Rom­ney almost as much as they do Obama. Regrets, I’ve had a few …

    >

    Did I men­tion mit­tens is no Dutch!

    >

    Obama can lose OH/​FL/​VA and still eas­ily win the elec­tion. Obama will not lose Ohio and Virginia.

    Almost for­got, refer to #139 re: the (6) point voter demo­graphic swing in favor of Dems from 2008 to 2012.

    Stay tuned …

  72. AW,

    You will note that once I brought up the sub­ject of pos­si­ble cul­tural and soci­etal causes, the thread went notice­ably quiet. And NOTHING on that sub­ject. As Michael notes, answers are sel­dom binary and not always the obvious.

  73. AW,

    mur­der rates are cul­tural rather than hav­ing any­thing to do with avail­abil­ity of weapons.

    From what I recall, this was a big part of Michael Moore’s point in Bowl­ing for Columbine. We seem to have a cul­ture addicted to vio­lence. I do think it’s rel­e­vant to ask, how­ever, whether it’s pru­dent to con­tinue sup­ply­ing a addict with easy access to heroin.

    It’s also rel­e­vant to exam­ine the sit­u­a­tions in which gun deaths most often occur. Since most of them are acci­den­tal or are crimes of imme­di­ate pas­sion, the pres­ence of the mur­der weapon does sug­gest there’d be less of these sorts of shoot­ings if the weapons hadn’t been present in the first place.

    For peo­ple who are afraid of get­ting shot, and so buy a gun for pro­tec­tion, it may make sense to rethink that. Most shoot­ings are by fam­ily mem­bers or close friends. The one thing that is most effec­tive in reduc­ing one’s like­li­hood of get­ting shot is to not have a gun in one’s own home. The sec­ond most effec­tive step is to not visit peo­ple who do.

    None of which touches on the ques­tion of whether the jus­ti­fi­ca­tion given in the Sec­ond Amend­ment for allow­ing the own­er­ship of deadly weapons (“a well-​​regulated mili­tia…”) still makes sense in the twenty first century,

    Max,

    You will note that once I brought up the sub­ject of pos­si­ble
    cul­tural and soci­etal causes, the thread went notice­ably quiet.

    I wouldn’t read too much into that. Par­tic­u­larly on a Sat­ur­day, peo­ple some­times find other things to do. I just woke up from a nap, for instance.

  74. In our dis­cus­sion about Romney’s inabil­ity to react ratio­nally to the ques­tions about his tax returns, Krug­man had a won­der­ful arti­cle about it today. Basi­cally, many of the incred­i­bly rich don’t think the rest of us have a right to ques­tion them.

  75. dc,

     I just woke up from a nap, for instance.”

    Dude!!! It’s tough get­ting old, fat and lazy, ain’t it! LOL!!!!!

    #180
    Lais­sez majeste! Funny how Rom­ney dis­plays it, but the Roo­sevelts, Kennedys, even the Bushes seemed more sat­is­fied with pub­lic service.

  76. @Armchair War­lord

    As such dawolf’s asser­tion that the British government’s stance on firearms does any­thing beyond incon­ve­nience law-​​​​abiding British sub­jects who may wish to own a weapon would seem to be false ”

    I’ll take our 5% gun deaths thanks. And who are incon­ve­nienced? Seri­ously, the num­ber of peo­ple in this coun­try who care at all about own­ing a gun is van­ish­ingly small

  77. Dude!!! It’s tough get­ting old, fat and lazy, ain’t it! LOL!!!!!

    It totally sucks. But it’s bet­ter than the alter­na­tive. Had I not stayed up until 6:30 am the night before, I wouldn’t have needed said nap. But that’s life eh?

    #180
    Lais­sez majeste! Funny how Rom­ney dis­plays it, but the Roo­sevelts, Kennedys, even the Bushes seemed more sat­is­fied with pub­lic service.

    Indeed yes. Krug­man makes that point as well, that not every­one stays within the plu­to­cratic bub­ble. The Rom­neys, how­ever, seem to love it.

  78. Peo­ple who dis­ap­prove of uni­ver­sal health care ala Canada really need to read this.

    I real­ize it won’t change your minds, because the issue for you is not actu­ally about health care. But be aware that your argu­ments are sense­less. Find another way to tell us why Amer­i­cans have to suf­fer for your polit­i­cal gain.

  79. dawolf,

    So you do not trust your fel­low coun­try­men to not shoot each other if allowed to exer­cise their nat­ural rights which have been unjustly and oppres­sively cur­tailed by your gov­ern­ment? And I’d like to see some opin­ion polling on that sec­ond state­ment, thanks.

    dc,

    If I may make a proposal -

    There is ten­sion in Amer­ica between rec­og­niz­ing one’s con­sti­tu­tional right to own guns and use them respon­si­bly and the fact of gun crime in this coun­try, not to men­tion the role of loose Amer­i­can gun laws in pro­vid­ing a flood of weapons to Mex­i­can narco-​​insurgents. I think the ten­sion can be resolved by look­ing at the first part of the Sec­ond Amend­ment, where it refers to the “well-​​regulated Militia”.

    The first step would be to sep­a­rate sport­ing firearms from those pri­mar­ily use­ful for killing peo­ple. This would be done by either con­ven­ing a board with knowl­edge­able rep­re­sen­ta­tives from the armed ser­vices and fed­eral law enforce­ment or by ask­ing Jim Zumbo his opin­ion on the sub­ject ( ;) ). Thus the cat­e­gories of Uncon­trolled and Con­trolled Firearms would be cre­ated. Antique weapons would be grand­fa­thered out.

    Uncon­trolled Firearms would not be sub­ject to reg­u­la­tion. If you wanted to own Con­trolled Firearms, on the other hand, you just joined the Mili­tia. You would be sub­jected to a crim­i­nal back­ground check, required to present your­self for ser­vice to the Nation if called, issued an ID card and arm­band to sat­isfy the require­ments of the Geneva Con­ven­tions and required to demon­strate pro­fi­ciency with your weaponry on an occa­sional basis. Your ID card would be scanned and the data­base updated when mak­ing pur­chases of weaponry and ammu­ni­tion. It would be a fed­eral crime to sell CFs to non-​​members of the Mili­tia, and trans­fers between the Mili­tia would be tracked. Mem­bers of the Mili­tia would be required to promptly report thefts, etc.

    In order to get the gun lobby in this coun­try to swal­low the above pro­posal I also pro­pose that, as the Militia’s job is killing bad guys, fully-​​automatic weapons be made legal to import and man­u­fac­ture in this coun­try again, and oner­ous state restric­tions on “evil” Con­trolled Firearms be struck down. ;)

  80. AW,

    It’s an inter­est­ing pro­posal, and it encour­ages peo­ple who want to own “con­trolled” weapons to put their money (actu­ally, their time and effort, even their lives) where their mouth is. I like the pro­posal in that it holds peo­ple respon­si­ble for their choices and their rhetoric.

    I dis­like the pro­posal, in that I don’t see any excuse for “uncon­trolled” deadly prod­ucts whose sole and stated pur­pose is to kill. Nor do I see any actual use for a “mili­tia” in  our cur­rent cen­tury. YMMV.

    But if the choice is between the cur­rent NRA posi­tion that “all weapons should be avail­able to all peo­ple”, or your pro­posal, I’d take yours. And then I’d com­plain that those were my only two choices :)

  81. dc,

    I pri­mar­ily wanted to avoid incon­ve­nienc­ing casual hunters, which are prac­ti­cally the entire male pop­u­la­tion where I grew up, and who uni­ver­sally hunt with weapons of lim­ited mil­i­tary use­ful­ness. Sim­i­larly, I see no rea­son to reg­u­late small-​​caliber tar­get guns, antiques and curiosities.

    At the same time I –do– want to incon­ve­nience sur­vival­ist, anti-​​government gun nuts who accu­mu­late firearms to fight off the gub­mit on Judge­ment Day. And my pro­posal would prob­a­bly have stopped this shooter, as his pur­chase pat­tern would have raised red flags and led to investigation.

  82. I don’t mind “incon­ve­nienc­ing casual hunters.” Being a “casual hunter” is not like being a “casual XBox player.”

    For one thing, “casual hunters” are “casu­ally” killing liv­ing beings. This should be done with some care and acknowl­edg­ment and respect for the lives they are tak­ing — sim­ply for recreation.

    For another, “casual hunters” are using equip­ment that could kill peo­ple pretty eas­ily. It’s equip­ment that is intended to kill, unlike, say, a car or a bas­ket­ball  or plate of spaghetti. It should be as dif­fi­cult to obtain as any other inten­tion­ally lethal sub­stance or object — like strych­nine or sarin gas or a single-​​dose vial of anthrax. Or a hypo­der­mic nee­dle, for that matter.

    Unlike, say, a kitchen knife, a hand­gun has only one pur­pose — to cause inten­tional harm. It does noth­ing else. You can argue that it can be used defen­sively, but even for that func­tion, it must be either used to cause harm or as a threat to cause harm. It does noth­ing else. You can at least open a let­ter with a knife.

    I see no legit­i­mate pur­pose for firearms for any­one who doesn’t kill their own food, or has a need to pro­tect live­stock from wolves. But I admit I may not have full under­stand­ing of all life-​​situations. So if some­one else wants to endan­ger his or her own life by own­ing a firearm, that’s okay with me — pro­vided there are rea­son­able pro­tec­tions, and pro­vided such a per­son endan­gers no one else.

  83. DC… thanks for post­ing that blog arti­cle on Cana­dian health care. I’ve been say­ing things like that here for years, but it’s hard to get peo­ple to believe what it’s really like in Canada. Here, nobody delays going to the doc­tor because of what it might cost. Nobody stays in a job they hate because they’re afraid of los­ing cov­er­age. Nobody is bank­rupted by the costs of cat­a­strophic ill­ness. Every­body gets the same level of health care, every­body chooses their own doc­tor, nobody EVER “comes between you and your doc­tor,” wait times are not exten­sive, seri­ous con­di­tions are treated imme­di­ately, equip­ment is
    top-​​notch,  out­comes are bet­ter and sys­tem costs are less while per­sonal income tax is about the same as the US and cor­po­rate taxes are much, much lower.

    Bart once asked me, with gen­uine curios­ity, why I would be so strongly sup­port­ive of uni­ver­sal health care when I am per­son­ally able to afford any kind of health cov­er­age I would need.

    I told him that when I get to live in a place where every adult I meet has the same coevrage I do regard­less of their cir­cum­stances, and every child gets exactly the same care as my own grand­chil­dren, then  my life is greatly enriched.

    I don’t think Bart was able to grasp why I would feel that way. I won­der if any die-​​hard Repub­li­can could grasp it. Their atti­tude is prob­a­bly best summed up by the anony­mous guy in the com­ments after the arti­cle who says that even if the sys­tem is bet­ter, cheaper, read­ily avail­able and cov­ers every­body, it is still evil because God should be para­mount in all our lives, and uni­ver­sal health care makes peo­ple wor­ship the gov­ern­ment more than God.

    So yeah… there is that…

  84. @filistro,

    it is still evil because God should be para­mount in all our lives, and
    uni­ver­sal health care makes peo­ple wor­ship the gov­ern­ment more
    than God.

    Don’t con­ser­v­a­tives say we should com­par­i­son shop? If the gov­ern­ment gives me bet­ter nec­es­sary ser­vices than God does, where should I spend my money?

    Free mar­ket, y’know.

  85. Fili,

    What you describe is largely a con­se­quence of uni­ver­sal cov­er­age– the pool of insured is max­i­mized which min­i­mizes the risk and costs of insur­ance. In the US there are fifty pools of insured (one per state) and each pool is parsed up fify+ ways …Don’t for­get to men­tion that every­one pays insur­ance, its just much lower than in the US due to the above and var­i­ous gov­ern­ment con­tri­bu­tions from taxes (both income tax _​and_​ “sin” taxes). I would never have started my cur­rent busi­ness in the states due to the cost of health insur­ance, but as you point out, here in the social­ist par­adise more ratio­nal north­ern neigh­bor I can do so with­out fear of a health cri­sis bank­rupt­ing me.

  86. @DrFunguy

    . I would never have started my cur­rent busi­ness in the states due to the cost of health insurance,

    This is why here in Amer­ica we have to stop refer­ring to “uni­ver­sal health care” and start talk­ing about “job cre­at­ing uni­ver­sal health care.”

    Prob­a­bly the sin­gle best thing we could do to help small busi­nesses get started, or to grow exist­ing ones, is to have a national pro­gram of job cre­at­ing uni­ver­sal health care.

    But see, I sus­pect this is one of the rea­sons big cor­po­rate inter­ests and the rich peo­ple who own them are opposed to uni­ver­sal care. Employ­ees are fright­ened to leave their jobs, because health care today is nei­ther cheap nor portable. Peo­ple are afraid to start their own busi­nesses (which would com­pete with those wealthy cor­po­rate inter­ests) because they have to pay for their own insurance.

    The obscenely rich don’t care, because they can afford any med­ical care they need. As Grog is fond of point­ing out, we’ve got great health care here — if you’re obscenely rich and can afford it. Oth­er­wise, you are a slave to your employer, and cor­po­rate inter­ests like that.

  87. @AW

    So you do not trust your fel­low coun­try­men to not shoot each other if allowed to exer­cise their nat­ural rights which have been unjustly and oppres­sively cur­tailed by your government?”

    I do not trust my fel­low coun­try­men with guns, no. More guns = more deaths from guns, its pretty simple. 

    It isn’t a nat­ural right btw. That’s an amer­i­can­ism, not a uni­ver­sal. It actu­ally pains me to hear you refer to it that way because it so clearly shows your thought process on this mat­ter as hav­ing been trained by your upbring­ing and the lan­guage used.

    Those “rights” you refer to have been justly cur­tailed by a gov­ern­ment with the sup­port of the peo­ple btw. Noth­ing unjust or unrea­son­able about it. See Dun­blane Mas­sacre for part of the reason.

  88. Hunt­ing is as much a part of human nature as gath­er­ing.  Unless and until DrFun­Guy and his ilk man­age to clone toma­toes (or pota­toes, or car­rots) and give us all the fla­vors we can get from hunt­ing (pheas­ant is, after all, the ulti­mate “free range” fowl, and tasty beyond all oth­ers, pre­pared prop­erly) those who have grown up with it will con­tinue to hunt.

    Just as those of us who have grown up with or learned to enjoy gath­er­ing wild mush­rooms will con­tinue to do that.

    Are either of these occu­pa­tions “nat­ural” rights?  Hardly.  Just try and hunt on a farmer’s land — or poach his morels — with­out per­mis­sion and you’ll find out.  They must be exer­cised with a sen­si­bil­ity for the rights and safety of your­self and oth­ers.  But whether you buy your fowl at the store, wrapped in plas­tic and with all traces of its ori­gin care­fully elim­i­nated, or you pick them up in the field after being shot, your “rights” don’t enter into the equation.

    That said, I per­son­ally find it dis­taste­ful to have peo­ple shoot­ing for “sport”.  And it’s absolutely dis­gust­ing to my mind for exec­u­tives and the like to get paid-​​for hunt­ing trips on “game farms” (an oxy­moron, IMO), where birds are planted for them to walk up on and shoot in a pathetic par­ody of the real hunt­ing expe­ri­ence.  Any­one who can defend that activ­ity as a “nat­ural right” has passed beyond the pale of understanding.


  89. It isn’t a nat­ural right btw. That’s an amer­i­can­ism, not a uni­ver­sal. It actu­ally pains me to hear you refer to it that way because it so clearly shows your thought process on this mat­ter as hav­ing been trained by your upbring­ing and the lan­guage used.“

    da,

    With due respect. That is only your opin­ion, not a fact. Here in the Colonies, we dif­fer­en­ti­ate between the rights granted us by our Sov­er­eign (Oops, that would be NONE), and those rec­og­nized by our found­ing doc­u­ments: The Dec­la­ra­tion of Inde­pen­dence (from Great Britain’s King) and The Con­sti­tu­tion. Inher­ent in those doc­u­ments is the acknowl­edge­ment that cer­tain Rights come to cit­i­zens, not from gov­ern­ment (king or oth­er­wise) but “endowed by their Cre­ator”. Nat­ural rights. The right to self pro­tec­tion and the pro­tec­tion of home, fam­ily and belong­ings is pre­cisely one of those rights. And, in a world where those who would wish harm to you may well be armed, the nat­ural right to be able to arm one­self to so defend is an exten­sion of the right of self defense.

    The 2nd Amend­ment to the US Con­sti­tu­tion rec­og­nizes the “right of the peo­ple to keep and bear arms”, under rea­son­able reg­u­la­tion, in an explicit state­ment of the very nat­ural right. Yes, an “Amer­i­can­ism”, but one we fought the UK twice over and won with blood and trea­sure of Americans.

    Best.

  90. Max,
    How is your argu­ment dis­tin­guish­able from the ulti­mate “appeal to author­ity fallacy”?

  91. dc,

    we’ve got great health care here — if you’re obscenely rich and can afford it.

    We also have great health care if you have insur­ance. You don’t have to be “obscenely rich” to have access to it.  (Btw, I didn’t know being rich is “obcene” in this country.)

    A cou­ple more thougts.…

    Every sin­gle per­son  I’ve seen inter­viewed from the the­ater shoot­ing either men­tioned God or said they were lay­ing on the ground pray­ing as they heard shots being fired.  I thought it was inter­est­ing, par­tic­u­larly com­ing from a young group of Americans.

    Drow­ing is the sec­ond lead­ing cause of death among chil­dren in the United States; sec­ond only to auto­mo­bile acci­dents.  Why are we not ban­ning swim­ming pools?

    Does any­one actu­ally believe that ban­ning guns will cause crim­i­nals to sud­denly become law abid­ing cit­i­zens and not have guns? Because meth is ille­gal and there are a lot of.…you know.…meth labs in my county.

  92. GROG,
    Ban­ning swim­ming pools?  The drown­ings I read about are in ponds and lakes.  Besides, that’s a neg­a­tive approach.  Per­haps we should require a cer­tain level of swim­ming pro­fi­ciency as a require­ment for entry into, say, 6th grade.

  93. GROG,
    With­out opin­ing on the moral­ity of either approach, it seems to me that, if you want to either make hon­est peo­ple out of meth users or pre­vent them from hav­ing guns, it would be polit­i­cally eas­ier to legal­ize meth.  The drug war com­plex is mar­gin­ally less polit­i­cally pow­er­ful than the NRA.

  94. Short­chain,

    Appeal to author­ity is only a fal­lacy is the author­ity being appealed to is not a legit­i­mate author­ity on the sub­ject. I think Thomas Jef­fer­son is a legit­i­mate author­ity on polit­i­cal phi­los­o­phy. ;)