Getting the Special Treatment

Two votes hap­pened in the U.S. Sen­ate last Wednes­day, votes which high­light how Repub­li­cans and Democ­rats feel about tax rates.

Sen­ate Repub­li­cans voted to raise taxes on all Amer­i­cans. Sen­ate Democ­rats voted to avoid rais­ing taxes on all Amer­i­cans. A Democratic-​​sponsored bill that lim­its tax increases was passed, despite Repub­li­can oppo­si­tion. Repub­li­cans are now insist­ing that the bill the Sen­ate passed has no chance in the Republican-​​controlled House. In other words, Repub­li­can votes could force everyone’s taxes to go up.

How in the world will Grover Norquist spin this?

That’s not the most amaz­ing part. Democ­rats have been try­ing to make the argu­ment that Repub­li­cans only care about the super-​​rich. Repub­li­cans have been try­ing to deny this charge. So to demon­strate their posi­tion, Sen­ate Repub­li­cans forced a vote on a bill to lower taxes on the super-​​rich as the quid pro quo for avoid­ing tax increases on every­one, appar­ently not notic­ing that this proves the Democ­rats’ point.

Let’s review how we got into this pecu­liar situation.

In 2001, the Republican-​​controlled Con­gress under Pres­i­dent Bush enacted a series of mas­sive tax cuts, which (along with two unfunded wars and an unfunded tax give­away to insur­ance com­pa­nies called Medicare Part D) turned Pres­i­dent Clinton’s $236.2 bil­lion sur­plus into a nearly $400 bil­lion deficit in only two years. Con­gres­sional Democ­rats opposed what has come to be known as the “Bush tax cuts,” and Democ­rats in the Sen­ate threat­ened a fil­i­buster. In order to force the bill through, Sen­ate Repub­li­cans used the Bud­get Rec­on­cil­i­a­tion process, which allowed them to pass the bill on a sim­ple major­ity vote.

Repub­li­cans at the time did not actu­ally have a major­ity in the Sen­ate. In the 107th Con­gress, the Sen­ate was evenly split, with 50 Democ­rats and 50 Repub­li­cans. In order to have a major­ity, Vice Pres­i­dent Cheney had to cast a decid­ing vote. The Bush Tax Cuts passed the Sen­ate 51 to 50, using a pro­ce­dure Repub­li­cans would, in March of 2010, con­demn as the end of democracy.

The arcane rules of the Sen­ate, how­ever, allowed these tax cuts to stay on the books for only ten years — mean­ing 2001 through 2010. They would expire at the end of 2010, and would have to be renewed if they were to continue.

These tax cuts did a num­ber of things, includ­ing low­er­ing income taxes on all Amer­i­cans, low­er­ing cap­i­tal gains taxes, low­er­ing estate taxes, and reduc­ing a num­ber of other levies as well. Most of these tax cuts affected very few peo­ple. For instance, only a tiny per­cent­age of Amer­i­cans pay cap­i­tal gains taxes, and most Amer­i­cans are never sub­ject to estate taxes, since they apply only to estates worth over $1 million.

In the 2010 lame-​​duck ses­sion of Con­gress, Pres­i­dent Obama mas­ter­fully nego­ti­ated a num­ber of bills, includ­ing an $850 bil­lion tax-​​cuts-​​and-​​stimulus deal (which con­tained, among other things, an exten­sion to unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits and a tem­po­rary reduc­tion of the Pay­roll Tax), the repeal of DADT, the Defense Autho­riza­tion bill, a con­tin­u­ing res­o­lu­tion to keep fund­ing the fed­eral gov­ern­ment, the START treaty, and a his­toric food-​​safety bill. Part of the price of all this was a two-​​year exten­sion of the Bush Tax Cuts, which are now set to expire on Decem­ber 31, 2012.

If Con­gress does not act, on Jan­u­ary 1, 2013, tax rates will return to what they were at the end of Pres­i­dent Clinton’s tenure. That was a good time. Under Clin­ton, the econ­omy boomed, over twenty mil­lion jobs were cre­ated, and Amer­ica saw a fed­eral sur­plus for the first time since Lyn­don John­son. The top mar­ginal tax rate on the wealth­i­est Amer­i­cans was 39.6 per­cent. The Bush Tax Cuts low­ered it to 35 per­cent. Note that this is the tax only on the por­tion of income over $288,350. The first $288,350 was (and is) taxed at a lower rate.

We can argue about how much impact the tax rate had on the Clin­ton boom. What we can­not rea­son­ably claim is that a top mar­ginal tax rate 4.6 per­cent­age points higher than it is today stunted the Clin­ton econ­omy. Repub­li­cans insist we should not raise taxes on “job cre­ators” (by which they appar­ently mean peo­ple whose incomes exceed some high thresh­old) — yet they also claim these “job cre­ators” are not cre­at­ing jobs, since they com­plain there hasn’t been suf­fi­cient job cre­ation in the last three years. (It is unclear why we should expect the “job cre­ators” to sud­denly start cre­at­ing jobs if we don’t let their tax cuts expire on Decem­ber 31.)

Bear in mind, the last 27 months have seen about three times as many jobs cre­ated as dur­ing the eight years of Pres­i­dent Bush. One would think Repub­li­cans could use this as an argu­ment for leav­ing the tax struc­ture alone, since that’s what they want to do any­way. But admit­ting that jobs are being cre­ated would go against the nar­ra­tive they want to tell about Pres­i­dent Obama, so Repub­li­cans are will­ing to deprive them­selves of this argument.

Dur­ing nego­ti­a­tions in 2010, Democ­rats argued that the tax cuts on peo­ple with the high­est incomes should be allowed to expire — that is, the top mar­ginal tax rate (the rate for the por­tion of income over a cer­tain amount), and cap­i­tal gains and estate taxes, should be allowed to return to Clinton-​​era lev­els. Rec­og­niz­ing that we’re still not out of the woods as regards the Bush Great Reces­sion, Democ­rats also argued that the tax rates on the por­tion of income lower than a given amount should remain at the Bush lev­els. Leav­ing the rate lower for lower incomes means that more peo­ple would have more money avail­able for buy­ing con­sumer goods, thus act­ing as a stim­u­lus to eco­nomic growth.

Var­i­ous cut­offs were pro­posed — per­haps incomes over $250,000 would return to Clin­ton lev­els, maybe incomes over $1,000,000. Repub­li­cans wanted not only to see the Bush Cuts extended on all income, but wanted to make them per­ma­nent. In the end, the Bush Tax Cuts were extended in their entirety, but for only two years.

Here we are, two years later, and the Bush Cuts are again fac­ing their sun­set. Once more, Democ­rats are sug­gest­ing that all Amer­i­cans should con­tinue receiv­ing the lower Bush rates on income up to some max­i­mum amount. Once more, Repub­li­cans are demand­ing that all tax cuts for all lev­els of income should be extended.

Accord­ing to the 2010 lame-​​duck law, all rates will return to Clin­ton lev­els about five months from now. What we’re talk­ing about is whether Amer­i­cans will receive a tax cut on Jan­u­ary 1, 2013 — and, if so, how much.

About a week ago, Sen­ate Major­ity Leader Harry Reid made a deal with Minor­ity Leader Mitch McConnell. Both the Repub­li­can plan for Jan 1, and the Demo­c­ra­tic plan, would be put up for a vote. Nei­ther vote would be sub­ject to a fil­i­buster. Both would be allowed to pass or fail by a sim­ple major­ity. I don’t know about you, but I can’t think of any­thing more fair, nor any­thing that would more fully present the opin­ions and pri­or­i­ties of our elected rep­re­sen­ta­tives in the Senate.

Bear in mind that all but seven Repub­li­can sen­a­tors have signed the Norquist Pledge to never vote for any tax increase, ever, under any cir­cum­stances. Bear in mind also that Repub­li­cans have been insist­ing that a vote to allow the Bush Tax Cuts to expire is a vote to increase taxes. By this logic, all sign­ers of the Norquist Pledge must vote to keep in place any or all pro­vi­sions of the Bush Tax Cuts.

That’s not how it worked out. The Demo­c­ra­tic plan to extend the Bush Tax Cuts for all income under $250,000 passed the Sen­ate by a vote of 51 to 48, with all Repub­li­cans vot­ing against. That means that every Repub­li­can in the Sen­ate voted to raise taxes on all Amer­i­cans. There is no other way to inter­pret this vote. Every Repub­li­can in the Sen­ate voted to increase taxes on all Americans.

The com­pet­ing Repub­li­can plan, to extend all of the Bush Tax Cuts, was defeated, by a vote of 45 to 54.

Remem­ber, the Demo­c­ra­tic plan gives tax relief to every­body. The Repub­li­can votes deny tax relief to every­body, unless we treat the wealth­i­est Amer­i­cans bet­ter than every­one else. Repub­li­cans will allow Amer­i­cans to receive tax cuts on incomes under $250,000, only if peo­ple who make more than that amount also receive extra spe­cial tax cuts.

Accord­ing to Repub­li­cans, Amer­i­cans should only get tax relief if the most wealthy Amer­i­cans — the top two per­cent — get more tax relief than every­one else.

In many ways, these were merely sym­bolic votes (just like the vote in the House a short time ago — after more than thirty com­pa­ra­ble votes — to repeal the Afford­able Care Act). The Con­sti­tu­tion requires that all laws regard­ing taxes must orig­i­nate in the House, not the Sen­ate, so nei­ther of these bills would have passed Con­sti­tu­tional muster (though there are ways to finesse that if Con­gress had wanted to). I sus­pect this was one of the two rea­sons Mitch McConnell allowed the votes to hap­pen with­out a fil­i­buster (the other being that I hon­estly don’t think he knew how the votes would turn out).

Nev­er­the­less, these were impor­tant votes, despite this being only a bit of sym­bol­ism. In fact, espe­cially because these votes were only sym­bolic, they were impor­tant. Even know­ing that nei­ther of these bills would become law, Sen­ate Repub­li­cans could not bring them­selves to vote for a tax bill that didn’t give extra spe­cial ben­e­fits to the wealth­i­est Americans.

Even know­ing this was only a state­ment of intent, Repub­li­cans can­not say they are in favor of help­ing all Amer­i­cans, unless the rich­est Amer­i­cans are treated bet­ter than any­one else.

We need to take this les­son to heart. It tells us a lot about where the Repub­li­can Party is today, despite the faux–pop­ulist Teaper rhetoric. This needs to be an issue in the Novem­ber elections.

(Cor­rec­tion made: the arti­cle orig­i­nally misiden­ti­fied John Boehner, rather than Mitch McConnell, as the Sen­ate Minor­ity Leader.)




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  1. Lawrence O’Donnell is strongly push­ing his “Off the Cliff” plan, and a sur­pris­ing num­ber of high-​​profile Dems are now cau­tiously sid­ing with him. Dems really seem to have found some back­bone on this.

    As I under­stand it, the plan works like this:

    1.) Dems do not inter­vene, and do not sup­port any GOP efforts to extend all the Bush tax cuts

    2.) As a result the Bush tax cuts expire on New Year’s Eve across the board, caus­ing everybody’s taxes to go up.

    3.) All earn­ers will see a slight increase in their Jan­u­ary taxes, which will be sub­se­quently refunded

    4.) In Jan­u­ary , Democ­rats imme­di­ately sub­mit a bill that mir­rors the one just voted on, requir­ing the Bush tax cuts to be restored on all incomes under $250,000 per annum

    5.) Repub­li­cans will be free to vote for this bill despite the Norquist pledge, since they will effec­tively be vot­ing for a tax decrease on the vast major­ity of the pub­lic now that the rates have already gone up. And for upper income earn­ers they will be vot­ing for the rates to stay the same as they were after the Bush tax cuts sun­set­ted on New year’s Eve, so it is also not a tax increase.

    Get on board, kids. Hold hands and  go Off The Cliff together! There’s even cool but­tons!!

  2. fil­istro,

    I avoided men­tion of the Off-​​the-​​Cliff plan only because of space (my arti­cle had got­ten long already). I think it’s a great idea.

    The one cor­rec­tion I would make in your expla­na­tion is in this part:

    Repub­li­cans will be free to vote for this bill despite the Norquist pledge, since they will effec­tively be vot­ing for a tax decrease on the vast major­ity of the pub­lic now that the rates have already gone up. And for upper income earn­ers they will be vot­ing for the rates to stay the same as they were after the Bush tax cuts sun­set­ted on New year’s Eve, so it is also not a tax increase.

    That’s not quite true. The Demo­c­ra­tic plan would involve a tax cut for all Amer­i­cans who have tax­able income, even the high­est income earn­ers. All income under $250,000 would get a reduced tax rate. Even peo­ple who make more than $250,000 would get a tax cut on the por­tion of their income under $250,000.

    Repub­li­cans like to com­plain about “class war­fare.” The Demo­c­ra­tic plan is any­thing but “class war­fare”, because it gives a tax cut to every­body with tax­able income. The Repub­li­can plan, on the other hand, is pre­cisely “class war­fare,” because it gives an extra spe­cial tax cut to peo­ple on the top end of the income scale.

  3. Thanks DC… I get what you’re say­ing, though I don’t think even O’Donnell has fully explained the sub­tlety of this being a tax decrease even on the upper income earn­ers, because after sun­set­ting they return to the old tax rate but now they get a decrease on the first 250k.

    You’re such a smart guy :-) Take THAT, Grover Norquist!

    My instincts tell me that maybe the Dems are going to hold fast on this one. I think they real­ize they have a win­ning hand and for once they won’t be scared into com­pli­ance by the GOP noise-​​and-​​outrage-​​machine. Because there is really grave dan­ger here for the ele­phants. If they allow Dems to shape the nar­ra­tive that the GOP has cho­sen to actu­ally raise taxes on the poor and the mid­dle class rather than let the taxes of upper income earn­ers return to pre-​​Bush lev­els, that’s a lethal meme… and it’s already tak­ing root.

  4. … the GOP has cho­sen to actu­ally raise taxes on the poor and the
    mid­dle class rather than let the taxes of upper income earn­ers return
    to pre-​​​​Bush levels …

    And that’s exactly what’s hap­pen­ing. I only briefly men­tioned the cap­i­tal gains tax cuts (which pri­mar­ily ben­e­fit the top 2%) and the estate tax cuts (which apply only to the very very wealthy). Repub­li­cans will let taxes go up on the poor and mid­dle class rather than allow these spe­cial ben­e­fits to expire for the hered­i­tary nobility.

    And the truly fright­en­ing thing is that the Ryan plan (which Rom­ney described as “mar­velous”) would increase taxes on the poor and mid­dle class even more, while cut­ting pro­grams that serve the poor and mid­dle class — and would do this in order to fund addi­tional spe­cial ben­e­fits for the very wealthy (peo­ple like Ryan and Rom­ney). These Repub­li­can plans are patently self-​​serving, using the tax code as a way to siphon money from aver­age Amer­i­cans directly into the pock­ets of them­selves and their very wealthy friends.

    The GOP sen­a­tors gave the game away with their votes last week. It couldn’t be more plain.

  5. On a related note, I did an arti­cle a while back (“Mean Girls”) on the var­i­ous upcom­ing fis­cal dead­lines that Con­gress has to deal with this year. One of them is the upcom­ing sequester of funds (I did an arti­cle on that, too.)

    What I find amus­ing is that Repub­li­cans are going nuts about the com­ing mil­i­tary cuts and the atten­dant job losses. An inde­pen­dent study recently noted that around two mil­lion jobs will be lost if those cuts go into effect. Another two mil­lion will van­ish if the domes­tic cuts hap­pen (though Repub­li­cans don’t seem to care about those jobs).

    Notice here — Repub­li­cans are com­plain­ing that jobs will be lost if these spend­ing cuts happen.

    We’ve been told for years that the way to cre­ate jobs is by cut­ting fed­eral spend­ing. Now we’re being told, by the same peo­ple, that if spend­ing cuts hap­pen, jobs will be lost.

    That’s another way of say­ing that increased fed­eral spend­ing cre­ates jobs.

    Repub­li­cans are busy revers­ing them­selves on nearly every­thing they’ve said in the last few decades. We’ve seen them reverse them­selves on the indi­vid­ual man­date (they used to be for it), on deficits (they used to say deficits don’t mat­ter), and now on whether spend­ing cre­ates jobs. They’re even vot­ing against tax cuts.

  6. At times like this I fear for the nation.

    The last time pol­i­tics in this coun­try were this out of con­trol, a lot of peo­ple died.

  7. On another thread, we’ve touched on the slow­ness of the recov­ery from the Bush Great Reces­sion. Repub­li­cans have, per­haps inad­ver­tently, revealed one of the biggest rea­sons. They’ve admit­ted that gov­ern­ment spend­ing cre­ates jobs. Yet Repub­li­cans at all lev­els (city, state, fed­eral) have been slash­ing gov­ern­ment spend­ing. It’s almost as if they’ve been slow­ing the recov­ery on purpose.

    Nearly a mil­lion pub­lic sec­tor jobs have been lost in the last three years due to spend­ing cuts. If those losses hadn’t hap­pened, the unem­ploy­ment rate would now be under 7%.

    Any dis­cus­sion of why the recov­ery isn’t faster than it is has to include the Republican-​​induced spend­ing cuts.

  8. Floor vote in the House com­ing up on Thursday. 

    Bill to be intro­duced by Ways and Means com­mit­tee rank­ing mem­ber San­dor Levin, (D-​​MI.)

    Assum­ing nei­ther side blinks before the elec­tion, the House and
    Senate-​​passed bills will serve as poten­tial mod­els for how Con­gress will
    pro­ceed in the event of a Rom­ney or Obama vic­tory, respec­tively. Levin
    sug­gested he’s well aware of the polit­i­cal dynamic.

    “As long as this is a stran­gle­hold on action, it’s hard to know how
    we resolve any­thing else,” Levin said. “I wish I could be more
    optimistic.”

  9. AW,
    In every gen­er­a­tion there is a point where peo­ple say “if this goes on …”  (Actu­ally, that was the title of a Robert Hein­lein story pub­lished in 1940 in which he imag­ined an Amer­ica in the grips of a fun­da­men­tal “Chris­tian­ist” reli­gious tyranny in which the “prophet” prac­ticed polygamy.  It was never said, in the novel, where the move­ment orig­i­nated, but I’ve always got a sense of Mor­monism off it.)

  10. Max,
    I’m old, but not that old.  I could only relate what I’ve read — and you all can do that as well as could I.  The first elec­tion I ever noticed was the 1964 elec­tion.  Our fam­ily was solidly behind Goldwater.

  11. I’ll admit to a cer­tain glee in play­ing Devil’s Advo­cate with my con­ser­v­a­tive fam­ily mem­bers who were so adamant that gov­ern­ment spend­ing kills jobs but are now vocif­er­ously argu­ing that we must have gov­ern­ment spend­ing to save jobs.

    Wait, I thought you said that gov­ern­ment spend­ing killed jobs?” 
    “Of course it does!”
    “But, now you’re argu­ing that we need more gov­ern­ment spend­ing to save jobs?”
    “Mil­i­tary spend­ing doesn’t count as gov­ern­ment spend­ing.”
    “Are you say­ing that mil­i­tary spend­ing isn’t part of the fed­eral bud­get?”
    “No, it’s not like that!”
    “Then, what bud­get does mil­i­tary spend­ing come from?“
    etc.

    Hehehe.

  12. @shortchain

    I think Max was ask­ing what year the elec­tion takes place in Heinlein’s 1940 story that you ref­er­enced. I’m assum­ing you meant If This Goes On, with First Prophet Nehemiah Scud­der get­ting elected Pres­i­dent in…

    wait for it…

    2012.

    :-)

  13. Lawrence O’Donnell is strongly push­ing his “Off the Cliff” plan,

    Damnit, I got excited when I heard Crazy Larry was push­ing a jump­ing off the cliff plan. But I guess it just involves taxes.

    Ah, more food fights at the DC freak­show. Place your bets on which team “wins” this round and hoists the cov­eted “Win­ning the weekly PR bat­tle while accom­plish­ing noth­ing” trophy.

  14. @mclever,

    On a sim­i­lar note, I chuckle every time I hear an elected Repub­li­can say that gov­ern­ment can­not cre­ate jobs. As Lawrence O’Donnell points out, these are peo­ple with gov­ern­ment jobs.

    They are also peo­ple with gov­ern­ment healthcare.

  15. @mclever,
    That crossed my mind, but Max’s ques­tion was open to interpretation.

  16. So Hein­lein knew about the Mayan End of Days prophecy! er a Mor­mon run­ning for pres­i­dent in 2012. Kinda like Mencken’s 1920 quote:

    As democ­racy is per­fected, the office of pres­i­dent rep­re­sents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the peo­ple. On some great and glo­ri­ous day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a down­right moron.

    Pre­dict­ing Bush er Hard­ing being appointed/​elected president.

    As always Amer­ica sur­vives despite itself, but ignore the Mayans at your own risk! :D

    carry on

  17. And in case any­one sus­pects Rom­ney doesn’t intend to give Spe­cial Treat­ment to him­self and his über-​​wealthy friends, we’ve got analy­sis avail­able of the Rom­ney tax plan. It’s open class war­fare, intended to put money in his own pocket and the pock­ets of oth­ers in the yacht­ing class. Bot­tom line: your taxes go up, unless you make an absurd amount of money. Then they go way down. And on top of that, it doesn’t work.