There has been an uptick in the amount of polling over the past two weeks. Ari­zona remains a state to watch, but we finally get some­thing out of Indiana.

Here is the cur­rent map:

Now for the details.

As always, “Con­tin­u­ing” refers to the seats in Sen­ate Classes 2 and 3, which are not up for elec­tion this cycle.

Here the high­lights of the past two weeks, walk­ing from the Pacific to the Atlantic:

  • Nevada: A cou­ple new polls in the past two weeks, one from Ras­mussen, and one from Republican-​​funded AFP/​Magellan, leave things in a rather con­fus­ing state. Ras­mussen came away with an unad­justed nine-​​point lead (cor­re­spond­ing to an adjusted eight-​​point lead) for the Repub­li­can incum­bent Sen­a­tor, Dean Heller, over his chal­lenger, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Shel­ley Berkley (D-​​Las Vegas), while AFP/​Magellan found Heller with a mere three-​​point lead. It’s enough to keep the Sil­ver State in “Leans Repub­li­can” ter­ri­tory, but I sus­pect Rasmussen’s num­ber is an out­lier, given the his­tor­i­cal numbers.
  • Ari­zona: This is becom­ing about as opaque a state as one can have. Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling just released a poll show­ing Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jeff Flake (R-​​Mesa) tied with for­mer Sur­geon Gen­eral Richard Car­mona. Based on house bias, that should equate to a five-​​point lead for Flake. This at least sug­gests that Rasmussen’s poll from last month, giv­ing Flake a 16-​​point edge, was an out­lier; ear­lier polls were more in line with the adjusted PPP num­ber. But we’re lack­ing updated data on the Repub­li­can pri­mary elec­tion, which takes place at the end of this month. That race has been an espe­cially nasty bat­tle between Flake and real estate tycoon Wil Car­don. Car­mona has gen­er­ally been polling bet­ter against Car­don than against Flake, so if Car­don gets the nom­i­na­tion it will prob­a­bly move Ari­zona from “Leans Repub­li­can” to “Tossup”.
  • Mis­souri: It’s been an inter­est­ing past cou­ple of weeks in the “Show Me” State. Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Claire McCaskill was long expected to face for­mer state trea­surer Sarah Steel­man in Novem­ber. But busi­ness­man John Brun­ner has been com­ing on strong over the past six months, and took the lead in the Post Dispatch/​Mason-​​Dixon poll against Steel­man. Not that it’s likely now to mat­ter in Novem­ber; both Repub­li­can can­di­dates poll roughly equally against McCaskill in the Ras­mussen and Post Dis­patch polls, best­ing the incum­bent by about five points. Mis­souri still “Leans Republican”.
  • Wis­con­sin: One new set of polls were released by Ras­mussen, cov­er­ing the Repub­li­can pri­mary as well as hypo­thet­i­cal matchups for the poten­tial Repub­li­can can­di­dates against Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Tammy Bald­win (D-​​Madison). While for­mer Gov­er­nor Tommy Thomp­son had long polled as the favorite among Repub­li­cans, banker Eric Hovde came on strong, much like Wil Car­don in Ari­zona. Most recently, Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling found Hovde ahead of Thomp­son by three points, and the noisy WeAskAmer­ica saw the two can­di­dates tied. Against Thomp­son, Ras­mussen gave the nod to Bald­win by seven unad­justed points (that’s eight adjusted) over Thomp­son, and by three unad­justed (four adjusted) over Hovde. These results are sig­nif­i­cantly dif­fer­ent from other recent polls, so I’m hold­ing off mak­ing a change in the pre­dic­tion, pend­ing con­fir­ma­tion from another poll. Oth­er­wise, it may be that the Ras­mussen poll was an out­lier. Absent a con­fir­ma­tion, Wis­con­sin remains “Leans Repub­li­can”, though not by a wide margin.
  • Michi­gan: Four new polls, from Baydoun/​Foster, EPIC-​​MRA, Ras­mussen, and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling. All con­firm Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Deb­bie Stabenow with a com­fort­able lead over for­mer Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Pete Hoek­stra and busi­ness­man Clark Durant, her two most likely oppo­nents in Novem­ber. No change; Michi­gan is “Likely Democrat”.
  • Indi­ana: At long last, a poll from Indi­ana. Ras­mussen came away with state trea­surer Richard Mour­dock ahead of Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Joe Don­nelly (D-​​Granger) by an unad­justed two points. Adjust­ing for the house bias, that gives Mour­dock a mere one-​​point lead, well inside the mar­gin of error. With no other post-​​primary data points on which to base a con­clu­sion, Indi­ana remains a “Tossup”.
  • Ohio: A new poll here from CBS/​New York Times/​Quinnipiac indi­cates that incum­bent Demo­c­ra­tic Sen­a­tor Sher­rod Brown has a dozen-​​point unad­justed lead over Repub­li­can Josh Man­del. As I said last time, the Ohio polls have been noisy, with Brown’s recent lead rang­ing from about five to about 15 points. This lat­est poll is within that broad range. We can still pretty safely pre­dict the win­ner of the upcom­ing elec­tion even though the mar­gin itself is so much in ques­tion. I’m leav­ing Ohio in the “Leans Demo­c­rat” col­umn, though I’m get­ting closer to mov­ing it to “Likely to Stay Democrat”.
  • Florida: Three new polls with results all over the place in the Sun­shine State. Sur­veyUSA con­cluded that Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Con­nie Mack, IV (R-​​Fort Mey­ers) has a six-​​point lead over incum­bent Sen­a­tor Bill Nel­son. On the other end of the spec­trum is CBS/​New York Times/​Quinnipiac, who sees a seven-​​point Nel­son lead. And in the mid­dle is Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling, whose unad­justed results sug­gest a two-​​point Nel­son lead, which cor­re­sponds to an adjusted two-​​point lead for Mack. More noise means I’m keep­ing Florida in the “Tossup” col­umn until we get closer to Novem­ber or show a clear trend.
  • New Jer­sey: Con­fir­ma­tion of last time. Far­leigh Dick­en­son and Mon­mouth Uni­ver­sity both show sim­i­lar leads to last time. New Jer­sey is “Likely Democrat”.
  • Con­necti­cut: In the one new poll from Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Chris Mur­phy (D-​​Cheshire) has an eight-​​point unad­justed lead (that’s three adjusted points) over Linda McMa­hon. Three points was the spread two months ago as well, and every poll thus far has indi­cated a Mur­phy lead. Con­necti­cut stays a “Leans Demo­c­rat” state, but three points is really tight; I could envi­sion mov­ing it to “Tossup”.
  • Mass­a­chu­setts: So close here, still. One new poll from Mass­INC, show­ing Demo­c­ra­tic can­di­date Eliz­a­beth War­ren with a two-​​point lead over incum­bent Sen­a­tor Scott Brown. Given the razor-​​thin mar­gins on both sides of the ledger over the his­tory of polling here, there’s not enough force to move Mass out of “Tossup”.

Lots of words there to say: nobody moved in the past two weeks.

Our five tossups remain: Florida, Indi­ana, Mass­a­chu­setts, Mon­tana, and Vir­ginia. It seems cred­i­ble for Repub­li­cans to win at least three of the five, since they have struc­tural advan­tages in all of them. And because noth­ing moved above, the Intrade mar­kets are also stag­nant: they still give Repub­li­cans about a 52 per­cent chance of tak­ing the Sen­ate, with a 30 per­cent chance of Democ­rats hold­ing at least 51 seats, and 20 per­cent chance of exactly 50 seats.

How cred­i­ble do you think those mar­ket num­bers are? Do you agree or dis­agree with my state analy­ses above?

Related arti­cles