Archive for August 6, 2012
Over here at Logarchism, we’ve been concentrating on the Presidential race and Senate races. In large part, this is because we’re a data-driven group of bloggers, and there isn’t much polling data on House races.
Today, I’ll take our first look at House races, and if there’s interest, we’ll make it a regular (perhaps monthly) feature. I’m using the Cook Political Report’s Competitive House Race chart (last updated August 2) as my guide. There are similar ratings from other political scientists, for example Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (last updated July 11), The New York Times (last updated date unclear) and the National Journal’s Hotline (updated July 18).
The elections for the 111th Congress took place in November 2008. The House of Representatives in the 111th Congress ended with 255 Democrats and 179 Republicans, with one Republican vacancy (shown in white on the chart).
The elections for the 112th Congress took place in November, 2010. In that election, 193 Democrats and 242 Republicans were elected. Thus, the 2010 elections resulted in a loss of 62 Democratic seats, with the Republicans gaining by the same amount, of course.
The House now stands at 191 Democrats, 240 Republicans, with four vacant seats (two from each party).
Based on the Cook Political Report rankings, here’s a graphic showing the recent historical distribution of the House, and how the House races are currently rated by Cook: