A House Divided: August 23 Edition
The Republican and Democratic conventions will occupy much of our interest for the next two weeks, so I want to take this opportunity to check in on the House races and see if anything is different since our August 6 update.
Short version: not much has changed.
The Cook Political Report’s Competitive House Race chart seems to be out of commission, or perhaps hidden behind a paywall now. I still have access to the Cook race changes, and there’s not much difference from last report. One less race is competitive (was 91, now 90) according to Cook. The Democrats have picked up one more Likely D and one Likely R has moved into safe territory.
This report, I’m comparing Cook to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (last updated July 11), and The New York Times (last updated date unclear). There’s also race reports at the National Journal’s Hotline (updated July 18).
The House now stands at 191 Democrats, 240 Republicans, with four vacant seats (two from each party).
After the jump, I’ve made a graphic comparing Cook, Sabato and the New York Times.
The New York Times does not distinguish between “likely” and “leans” so I’ve combined those in the “leans” color block.
Intrade investors are bullish on the Republicans’ chances, and have been for some time. This graph shows the Intrade percentage for the “Republicans Control House” contract over the last 30 days, which has held steady at nearly 85 percent:
Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) sells a slightly different contract. Here, the “bet” is on whether Republicans will gain (black line), hold (blue), or lose control (red) of the House.
IEM investors estimate there’s a 18 percent chance that Republicans will gain seats and a 65 percent chance that they will hold the House. That sums to 83 percent, which is close to the Intrade “Republicans control House” contract. Accordingly, IEM investors give the Democrats a 15 percent chance of gaining the 25 seats they need to regain the majority.
If naming Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville, WI) has had any effect on political scientists’ estimation of the House races, it doesn’t show in these graphs. The Democrats still look likely to gain a handful of seats, perhaps five or six. That’s not likely to move the House from “do-nothing” to “do-something” on the Effectiveness Meter.
- Cook Political Report moves Missouri from “toss up” to “likely Democrat”; Update: Romney, Scott Walker call on Akin to quit (hotair.com)
- Todd Akin skips withdrawal deadline, stays in Senate race (latimes.com)
- How safe is the GOP House majority? (politico.com)
- Favorites headed to victory in four U.S. state primary elections (reuters.com)
- Democrats’ nerves start to show as Ryan fires up conservative voters (guardian.co.uk)
- A House Divided (logarchism.com)
- Cooking the Books or Just Rewarming Them?
- Cantoring Through Crises
- Beware the First of March
- The Next Act
- Transparency: The New Black?
- Cliffmas Presence
- The Fiscal Games
- Lame Duck Waddling
- 113 th Congress: Veer Slightly Left; It’s the Last One on the Right
- Ballot Watch: The South (Part 2, The Swinging South)