How can we mea­sure a jig­ger? Here’s one option…

Editor’s note: We always wel­come ari­cle sub­mis­sions from you, our read­ers. Today’s arti­cle comes from Max (aka Birdpilot).

There is the con­cept of the “base­line” in a num­ber of fields. And of dimin­ish­ing returns.

One estab­lishes that base­line, then jig­gers with some­thing to see how that affects the process. If the jig­ger demon­strates an improve­ment against that base­line, it can be incor­po­rated into the new base­line. Or, pos­si­bly, one can remove the jig­ger, return to the base­line, and try a new jigger.

In any case, if the jig­ger cre­ates a neg­a­tive effect, causes a decline against the base­line, one can remove that jig­ger, return to the base­line, and take the les­son to heart. Obvi­ously, allowances are made for short-​​term loss for longer term gain, if one is smart. But a neg­a­tive return should be tossed in the dustbin.

Recently, we have a base­line that can be used, the last cou­ple years of the Clin­ton admin­is­tra­tion, for an eco­nomic com­par­i­son against fol­low­ing “jig­gers”. We can, and have, debated the over­all effec­tive­ness of the Rea­gan tax cuts (net, after the sub­se­quent increases) and deficit spend­ing (quin­tu­pling the debt in the 12 years) and the way it affected job growth and infla­tion in the 1980s and early 1990s. And the effec­tive­ness of the poli­cies of the Clin­ton years. We know that 40 per­cent more jobs were cre­ated and that infla­tion was at rea­son­able lev­els in the mid– to late-​​1990s. And we know, as com­pared to the Reagan/​Bush I years, we were in a sur­plus bud­get sit­u­a­tion, pay­ing down the fed­eral debt — some­thing fis­cal con­ser­v­a­tives dream of every night. Clin­ton also signed into law the repeal of Glass-​​Steagall late in his term.

Then Bush II was elected and added a jig­ger. He dou­bled down on the “sup­ply side” the­ory with more Rea­gan style tax cuts, fur­ther dereg­u­la­tion, or lack of enforce­ment of exist­ing reg­u­la­tions. He added to that a sig­nif­i­cant increase in spend­ing, with a result­ing end of the sur­plus and, even­tu­ally, a dou­bling of the fed­eral debt. Although infla­tion stayed at rea­son­able lev­els, job growth of only 1.9 mil­lion (even the “inept” Carter, dur­ing dou­ble digit infla­tion, over­saw over an increase of over 10 mil­lion jobs, with a sig­nif­i­cantly smaller pop­u­la­tion!!). The Glass-​​Steagall repeal came into full flower under Bush as well. And then an eco­nomic cri­sis sec­ond only to the Great Depres­sion. Looks like dimin­ish­ing returns.

So, that jig­ger seems to have pro­duced a neg­a­tive effect ver­sus the baseline.

The Obama admin­is­tra­tion attempted to return to the base­line, propos­ing tax increases on those mak­ing over $250,000 per year and rereg­u­lat­ing the finan­cial indus­try, though not nearly as heav­ily as under Glass-​​Steagall; because of Repub­li­can oppo­si­tion, these attempts were either kept to a min­i­mum or not enacted. And, because of the eco­nomic hole and the attempts to climb out, with­out pay­ing for even part of the lat­ter, deficits that have increased the debt by 60 per­cent in a lit­tle over three years. But, in spite of the head­winds, almost four mil­lion jobs were cre­ated in that time.

With this elec­tion year, we have a Repub­li­can ticket and party plat­form that wants to triple–down on the sup­ply side cuts. They have pre­sented eco­nomic plans that will dig the the hole deeper in the short– to mid-​​term, not even end­ing annual deficits for over two decades! And not a sin­gle detail of how even that would be accom­plished. They actu­ally want to reap­ply the jig­ger that ended the pay­ing down of the debt, dou­bled that fed­eral debt, gen­er­ated fewer than two mil­lion jobs in eight years — and expand on it! If the Bush poli­cies showed dimin­ished returns ver­sus the Rea­gan years, cre­at­ing a deep hole, the stated poli­cies of Rom­ney would give us greatly dimin­ished returns, and an even deeper hole, if enacted.

This being the case, not only should the Repub­li­can ticket and plans be rejected, it’s time to return to the base­line, announc­ing that the tax rates will return fully to the Clin­ton lev­els as cer­tain tar­get gross domes­tic prod­uct growth and employ­ment lev­els are reached, and that Glass-​​Steagall will be reen­acted in full.

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