This is Bal­lot Watch. Today is the the fifth of a series of arti­cles on the upcom­ing bal­lot ini­tia­tives and some key local elec­tions in var­i­ous regions around the coun­try. Some of these cover top­ics in com­mon with mul­ti­ple states, while oth­ers look at a state level.

Today’s Bal­lot Watch is the first half of a two-​​part arti­cle cov­er­ing the Mid­west. By edi­to­r­ial dis­cre­tion, and in an attempt to divide up the arti­cles into fairly equal num­bers of states, the “Mid­west” is here defined by the states you see in the graphic — Min­nesota, Wis­con­sin, Illi­nois, Michi­gan, Indi­ana, Ohio, and Penn­syl­va­nia. Wis­con­sin doesn’t have much on which to com­ment at the moment, though we may have things to say about it in the next two months. Of the other six states, I’ll dis­cuss three of them today, and three tomorrow.

Illi­nois

There are a cou­ple of Democratic-​​leaning dis­tricts with first-​​time Repub­li­can incum­bents who were elected with Tea Party sup­port in 2010. There are also three open seats with very close races, two with Repub­li­can incum­bents and one with a retir­ing Demo­c­rat. There is also an inter­est­ing bal­lot mea­sure that could affect voter turnout.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 17 is an oddly-​​gerrymandered dis­trict on the west-​​central por­tion of the state. It’s mostly rural, but still has a Cook rat­ing of D+6. Its Repub­li­can incum­bent, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Bobby Schilling (R-​​Colona), was elected with Tea Party sup­port in 2010. He’s being opposed by Demo­c­rat East Moline Coun­cil­woman Cheri Bus­tos. The two have war chests of com­pa­ra­ble size, Schilling hav­ing raised almost $1.5 mil­lion, Bus­tos close with nearly $1.3 mil­lion. How­ever, Schilling has spent nearly a half mil­lion dol­lars of pub­lic funds on mass mail­ings the last two years, more than any other mem­ber of the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives, hav­ing dis­trib­uted over 1.1 mil­lion fly­ers since he took office in 2011. Pres­i­dent Obama car­ried this dis­trict 60 per­cent to Sen­a­tor John McCain’s 38 per­cent in 2008, and Schilling is polling at only 50 per­cent in his own inter­nal polls as of early August. This seat is a pos­si­ble pickup for the Democrats.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 10 is also Democratic-​​leaning, sit­u­ated on the north side of the Chicago metro area, with a Cook rat­ing of D+8. The dis­trict includes the sub­urb of Waukegan. The Repub­li­can incum­bent is Robert Dold, and his Demo­c­ra­tic chal­lenger is Brad Schnei­der. Dold has raised almost twice as much money as Schnei­der, nearly $3 mil­lion to Schneider’s $1.6 mil­lion. A recent poll run by var­i­ous Democratic-​​leaning orga­ni­za­tions shows the race sub­stan­tially tied, while Dold’s inter­nal polling shows him with a ten-​​point lead. When infor­ma­tion about the two can­di­dates’ poli­cies was pre­sented to vot­ers polled, Schnei­der over­took Dold 53 per­cent to 42 per­cent. Depend­ing on who you believe, this could be a close race, or an easy reëlec­tion for the guy with more money.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 11 is mostly hor­i­zon­tal, run­ning to the south and west of Chicago, but with a long tail reach­ing south­ward to almost the mid­dle of the state. The dis­trict includes the town of Naperville, and is mostly rural. The seat was pre­vi­ously held by Repub­li­can Adam Kinzinger, who is now run­ning to rep­re­sent Dis­trict 16, because redis­trict­ing moved him across the bor­der. Also moved by redis­trict­ing is Dis­trict 13’s Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Judith Borg “Judy” Big­gert (R-​​Hinsdale), who is now the gen­eral elec­tion Repub­li­can can­di­date for Dis­trict 11. She is being chal­lenged by yet another House incum­bent who is being moved by redis­trict­ing: Dis­trict 14’s Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Bill Fos­ter (D-​​Winfield). (See below — redis­trict­ing after the 2010 Cen­sus has really shuf­fled these seats around.) The two can­di­dates’ cam­paign war chests stand roughly equal, each hav­ing raised about $1.6 mil­lion. Big­gert has been in Con­gress since 1999.  Real­Clear­Pol­i­tics rates this race a “Toss Up”.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 12 is a mir­ror image of the 11th, with a retir­ing Demo­c­ra­tic, rather than Repub­li­can, incum­bent, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jerry Costello (D-​​Belleville). The dis­trict is in the south­west cor­ner of the state, near St Louis, Mis­souri. Repub­li­can Jason Plum­mer has raised almost a half mil­lion dol­lars, while his Demo­c­ra­tic oppo­nent, for­mer Illi­nois National Guard Adju­tant Gen­eral William Enyart, has raised a shade under $180,000. Elec­tion Pro­jec­tion gives Enyart a weak edge, but it seems to be a close and volatile race. Plum­mer is run­ning on a plat­form of “val­ues” and “com­mon sense” and has released a “12-​​point jobs plan.”

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 13, made up of parts of the old Dis­tricts 15 and 17, is sit­u­ated just north of the new Dis­trict 12. Repub­li­can Rod­ney Davis is run­ning against Demo­c­rat David Gill. Davis accuses Gill of sup­port­ing “rad­i­cal envi­ron­men­tal poli­cies” which, he claims, will “raise gas and energy prices.” Gill is an ER doc­tor. Davis has a degree in polit­i­cal sci­ence from Mil­likin Uni­ver­sity. Nei­ther have pre­vi­ously held elected office, though Davis has worked for Illi­nois Con­gress­man John Shimkus. RCP says the dis­trict “leans Repub­li­can,” but a recent poll gives Gill a def­i­nite lead with 36 per­cent to Davis’s 30 per­cent. (Inde­pen­dent can­di­date John Hart­man is polling at nine per­cent, and the remain­der are undecided.)

Pub­lic pen­sion amend­ment 49 is a pub­lic employee scape­goat­ing mea­sure, an attempt to make it dif­fi­cult to increase ben­e­fits — per­haps even cost of liv­ing adjust­ments — for pub­lic employ­ees. It would require a three-​​fifths major­ity vote from the Gen­eral Assem­bly, city coun­cils or school dis­tricts to raise any pen­sion ben­e­fits for any retired pub­lic work­ers. This new rule would apply to all lev­els of state gov­ern­ment. It is an attempt to amend the Illi­nois Con­sti­tu­tion, and thus make this pol­icy hard to undo in the future.

Indi­ana

There are two Indi­ana dis­tricts with incum­bents leav­ing the House, one held by a Demo­c­rat, one by a Repub­li­can. A third dis­trict may turn on the public’s thoughts about the Afford­able Care Act.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 2 is based around South Bend. Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Joe Don­nelly is run­ning for Sen­ate. His seat is being sought by West Point grad­u­ate and U.S. Army com­bat vet­eran Demo­c­rat Bren­dan Mullen and Repub­li­can Indi­ana State Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jackie Walorski. Walorski has so far out-​​raised Mulen, $1.1 mil­lion to $800,000. Walorski lost nar­rowly when she ran against Don­nelly two years ago, but redis­trict­ing has made Dis­trict 2 more heav­ily Repub­li­can. Both RCP and the Elec­tion Pro­jec­tion site view this as a pos­si­ble Repub­li­can pickup.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 5 is cur­rently held by retir­ing Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Dan Bur­ton (R-​​Indianapolis), who has been in Con­gress since 1983. Run­ning for his soon-​​to-​​be-​​vacated seat are Marine avi­a­tor Demo­c­rat Scott Reske, Repub­li­can Susan Brooks, and Lib­er­tar­ian Chard Reid. Brooks has a sub­stan­tial money advan­tage, hav­ing raised almost $900,000 to Reske’s $280,000. Brooks has served as Deputy Mayor of Indi­anapo­lis, U.S. Attor­ney for the South­ern Dis­trict of Indi­ana, and most recently as Senior Vice Pres­i­dent and Gen­eral Coun­sel for Ivy Tech Com­mu­nity Col­lege. RCP views this seat as likely to stay with the Repub­li­cans, though much may depend on the num­ber of votes Reid draws away from Brooks.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 8 is in the south­west por­tion of the state, reach­ing as far north as Cov­ing­ton. It is mostly rural, with a Cook rat­ing of R+7. Incum­bent Larry Buc­shon (R-​​Newburgh) is fac­ing Demo­c­rat David L. Crooks. Crooks served in the state House from 1996 to 2008. Buc­shon, a for­mer heart sur­geon, is run­ning against Crooks’s sup­port of the Afford­able Care Act, and brags that he (Buc­shon) “voted four times for full repeal of Oba­macare and over 30 times to defund, dis­man­tle, or repeal por­tions of this dis­as­trous law.” (That isn’t sup­posed to make him sound inef­fec­tive, I guess, despite the lack of effect from all these votes.) Buc­shon has also called Crooks a “career politi­cian” (that may be sup­posed to be an insult, though one might think it would qual­ify Crooks for a job as, well, a politi­cian). Fundrais­ing for the two is fairly close, Buc­shon so far hav­ing raised almost $850,000 to Crooks’ $740,000, though Crooks has retained far more of it on hand for the final push. RCP rates this dis­trict as likely to remain with Bucshon.

Min­nesota

There are three inter­est­ing races to watch in Min­nesota, and two impor­tant bal­lot mea­sures. In all three of these par­tic­u­lar Con­gres­sional races, Repub­li­can incum­bents are fac­ing real chal­lenges from Demo­c­ra­tic oppo­nents. Democ­rats could gain one or more seats in Min­nesota, and the bal­lot mea­sures are likely to increase voter par­tic­i­pa­tion in a state that already draws the nation’s high­est per­cent­age of reg­is­tered vot­ers to the polls — nearly 70 per­cent.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 2 Incum­bent Repub­li­can John Kline is fac­ing a stiff chal­lenge from Demo­c­rat Mike Ober­mueller in this R+1 sub­ur­ban dis­trict just south of Min­neapo­lis and Saint Paul, despite the former’s vast fundrais­ing advan­tage (over $1.8 mil­lion to a pal­try $300,000). Ober­mueller has been push­ing Kline hard on Medicare issues. How this plays out could say some­thing about how the issue is seen nation­ally. Kline is a vet­eran of the Marine Corps, and has served in Con­gress since 2003. Ober­mueller is a for­mer mem­ber of the state House.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 6 is the home of one of the most col­or­ful mem­bers of Con­gress, three-​​term Repub­li­can Con­gress­woman Michele Bach­mann, who is fac­ing an unex­pected chal­lenge from Demo­c­rat Jim Graves. Bach­mann, founder of the House Tea Party Cau­cus, was the best-​​funded Con­gres­sional can­di­date in the nation in 2010. This year, she has raised an almost unbe­liev­able $16 mil­lion to a mere half-​​million for Graves. Accord­ing to a recent Green­berg Quin­lan Ros­ner poll, Bach­mann leads her oppo­nent by only 48 to 46 per­cent, within the mar­gin of error. Bachmann’s pen­chant for mak­ing out­landish state­ments may not be play­ing well the fourth time around.

Con­gres­sional Dis­trict 8 is a large and rural dis­trict, includ­ing the “arrow­head” region that points above Lake Supe­rior. Often called the “Iron Range”, it has a Cook rat­ing of D+3, and is a tra­di­tional bas­tion of Democratic-​​leaning working-​​class vot­ers. Demo­c­rat Rick Nolan is seek­ing to unseat Repub­li­can Chip Cravaack, who rode into office in 2010 with sig­nif­i­cant Tea Party sup­port, nar­rowly defeat­ing the highly-​​respected long time Demo­c­ra­tic Rep­re­sen­ta­tive James Ober­star. RCP views this race as a “Toss Up”, and the Elec­tion Pro­jec­tion site has alter­nated between slight advan­tage for Nolan or Cravaack.

There are two impor­tant bal­lot mea­sures in Min­nesota this year. I’ve writ­ten about them before. (By the way, if you fol­low that link, Min­nesota courts have ruled that the bal­lot names of the ques­tions will be the ones the state leg­is­la­ture wanted.)

The Mar­riage Amend­ment to the Min­nesota Con­sti­tu­tion would define mar­riage as being only between one man and one woman. There already is a state law that defines mar­riage this way, and Min­nesota does not rec­og­nize any form of “civil union.” Nev­er­the­less, there is a move to write this into the Con­sti­tu­tion. The polling on the pop­u­lar­ity of this ques­tion is con­fus­ing, but Min­nesota has a real chance at becom­ing the first state to reject such an amendment.

The Voter Iden­ti­fi­ca­tion Amend­ment would amend the state Con­sti­tu­tion to require vot­ers to show ID before being allowed to vote. Min­nesota has one of the least restric­tive — and clean­est — set of vot­ing pro­ce­dures in the coun­try, allow­ing same-​​day reg­is­tra­tion at the polling place, and easy vouch­ing for new vot­ers, plus a set of sim­ple pro­ce­dures for absen­tee vot­ing. There are seri­ous prob­lems with the Amend­ment as it is writ­ten — it is not clear, for exam­ple, whether absen­tee vot­ers, say on active duty in Afghanistan, would have to return to their polling place in Min­nesota and show a pic­ture ID before being allowed to cast an absen­tee bal­lot. Nev­er­the­less, this pro­posed Amend­ment is cur­rently polling well.

Tomor­row, I’ll cover the east­ern half: Michi­gan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

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