I’m not surprised that scenario appeared this year, but I expected to see it in an open seat.  CA-31 is a special case because “incumbent” Gary Miller neither lives in nor represents any part of the new district.  Naively, I thought Dutton would finish first, followed by Aguilar and then Miller.  I interpreted the result as a reminder never to underestimate the power of incumbency, even with an asterisk attached.  (The darker, alternative interpretation would be that the voters in Jerry Lewis’ old district have become so accustomed to corruption in their Congressman that they now consider it a prerequisite.)

Thanks for the compliment.  I really appreciate the work you and the other editors have done on the Ballot Watch series, and I’m glad to be able to add some color commentary.

CA-​​31 is a painful missed oppor­tu­nity for Team Blue, as two Repub­li­cans will face off in a D+2 dis­trict.

And this is one particularly interesting upshot of the jungle primary. If you have too many members of the majority party, of roughly equal stature, facing off against each other, it leaves an opportunity for the minority party to sneak two candidates through to the general.

That’s for sure. I think centauri needs to be coaxed to submit some articles for publication here. It’s a rare skill when somebody can write a straightforward status report on some races with which I am totally unfamiliar.… and make it so interesting that I’ll read it through twice just for enjoyment.

Great work, centauri.

In CA-24, Capps is competing in a district strongly resembling the one that elected her in 1998 and 2000 (and her late husband, Walter, in 1996).  While Maldonado is a formidable opponent with a high profile thanks to his brief Lieutenant Governorship, he will need to win over supporters of third-place candidate Chris Mitchum, son of actor Robert Mitchum, who trailed Maldonado in the primary by only 8 points.  On his website, Mitchum pointedly refuses to endorse Maldonado on grounds of being a tax-raising RINO.

In CA-26, third-place finisher Linda Parks (R-turned-I) is not on the best terms with the Strickland family.  In 2010, Audra Strickland challenged Parks (still a registered Republican at that time) for her seat on the Ventura County Board of Supervisors and was supported by $100,000 in “independent” expenditures by the county GOP, evading local campaign finance limits that Parks had championed.  While Parks won that race handily, her supporters in this one could blunt Tony Strickland’s edge coming out the primary if they break toward the Democrat.

CA-31 is a painful missed opportunity for Team Blue, as two Republicans will face off in a D+2 district.  Four Democrats split 48.5% of the primary vote.

In CA-47, I think Gary DeLong sees himself as the next Steve Horn.  Horn, a former president of Long Beach State, held a similar Long Beach-based district for the Republicans from 1992 to 2002, only once exceeding 52.6% of the vote (in 1994).  The Orange County areas in CA-47 give DeLong a solid floor, but I don’t see how he won’t be swamped by the more Democratic turnout profile in November.

I used to live in the new CA-52 near the end of Randy Cunningham’s tenure, and I fully agree with Michael’s characterization of it as “bipolar.”  If this were 2008, with McCain at the top of the ticket, I think Bilbray would have the edge.  But if military servicemembers and their families start feeling that Romney is a risky choice as commander-in-chief, even the tiniest of Obama coattails might be enough to swing this race to Peters.

Likely R:  CA-10, CA-36 (sorry PNE, I think CA-20 is Solid R)
Lean R:  CA-07
Tossup:  CA-26, CA-52
Lean D:  CA-24, CA-41
Likely D:  CA-09, CA-47

Any­way, about CA-​​21, the dis­trict is sort of sim­i­lar to Jim Costa’s cur­rent dis­trict, except it loses Fresno and there­fore becomes more Repub­li­can. It’s still mostly His­panic, how­ever. That’s why it’s so unpredictable.

Fair enough. I could see that district going either way, for the reasons you outline.

By the way, what do you have against Mack in par­tic­u­lar?

The “Mack” part. I find it hard to believe that one can live in and represent a district in California with a spouse who lives in and represents a district in Florida. I doubt that the marriage was a sham…they met in the House. So I can’t help but feel that her constituents are getting the short end of the deal. After all, the other Mack is spending a lot of time in Florida trying to become a Senator.