I think the rea­son recov­er­ies are dif­fer­ent now has to do with the shift from a man­u­fac­tur­ing econ­omy to a service-​​based economy.

Yes, but why have we made that shift?

My sup­po­si­tion is that the con­sis­tent change in recov­ery slope after 2001 is due to out­sourc­ing, which lim­its the num­ber of posi­tions avail­able on US soil. Is this cor­rect or am I jump­ing to conclusions?

There’s a correlation, but I’m not so sure that it’s causal.

You could be on to something there. I distinctly recall in each of the two previous serious recessions — 2001, 1990, and even the 1981 recession — economists complaining that we were perhaps experiencing a “jobless recovery.” I suspect something substantial has changed in the economy.

Perhaps the integration of worldwide economies also has something to do with it, along with the ability of corporations now to automate work and thus replace workers rather than re-hire them. I know today a lot of workers who still have jobs are complaining that they are doing the work that two or three (or even four) people did before the recession, and their employer doesn’t want to hire anyone new. Employers are squeezing more work out of each employee, partly because employees are afraid they’ll be fired and unable to find more work if they object. (This was a desired result of Reagan’s economics team, who wanted to keep unemployment high enough to keep employees insecure about holding to their jobs.)

That graph also puts the lie to a line I’ve heard several times from conservative bloggers, that Reagan’s 1981 recession was worse than the 2008–2009 Bush recession. (They make this argument as part of their attack on Obama, that the recovery from the Bush recession is unforgivably slow.)

I think another thing that can be taken from the graph is a reminder of what Republican congressional obstructionism is doing to jobs recovery.

My supposition is that the consistent change in recovery slope after 2001 is due to outsourcing, which limits the number of positions available on US soil.  Is this correct or am I jumping to conclusions?