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	<title>Comments on: Ballot Watch: Plains States</title>
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	<description>Governing through Reason</description>
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		<title>By: Logarchism &#187; 113 th Congress: Veer Slightly Left; It’s the Last One on the Right</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-46039</link>
		<dc:creator>Logarchism &#187; 113 th Congress: Veer Slightly Left; It’s the Last One on the Right</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 10:02:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-46039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] 7 Con­necti­cut 5 Florida 2 Florida 10 Florida 16 Florida 18 Florida 22 Florida 26 Geor­gia 12 Iowa 1 Iowa 2 Iowa 3 Iowa 4 Illi­nois 8 Illi­nois 10 Illi­nois 11 Illi­nois 12 Illi­nois 13 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[…] 7 Con­necti­cut 5 Florida 2 Florida 10 Florida 16 Florida 18 Florida 22 Florida 26 Geor­gia 12 Iowa 1 Iowa 2 Iowa 3 Iowa 4 Illi­nois 8 Illi­nois 10 Illi­nois 11 Illi­nois 12 Illi­nois 13 […]</p>
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		<title>By: Logarchism &#187; Ballot Watch: The South (Part 1, The Solid South)</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-42005</link>
		<dc:creator>Logarchism &#187; Ballot Watch: The South (Part 1, The Solid South)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Sep 2012 19:04:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-42005</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] region includes the states of the Con­fed­er­acy, minus Texas and Vir­ginia, which were cov­ered in sep­a­rate geo­graphic Bal­lot Watch [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[…] region includes the states of the Con­fed­er­acy, minus Texas and Vir­ginia, which were cov­ered in sep­a­rate geo­graphic Bal­lot Watch […]</p>
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		<title>By: dcpetterson</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41861</link>
		<dc:creator>dcpetterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 01:59:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41861</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to the linked article, &quot;An attorney for the Strategic Allied Consulting, Fred Petti, said the 
firm has a “zero tolerance” policy for breaking the law. He said the 
company was able to trace all questionable cards to one individual, who 
was immediately fired.&quot; The parallels to ACORN are pretty much exact.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;So, let&#039;s have all those ACORN bashers now start going after the Republican National Committee. They &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;will &lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;do that, right?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;width: 1px; height: 1px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font: 10pt sans-serif; text-align: left; text-transform: none; overflow: hidden;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html#storylink=cpy&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to the linked article, “An attorney for the Strategic Allied Consulting, Fred Petti, said the<br />
firm has a “zero tolerance” policy for breaking the law. He said the<br />
company was able to trace all questionable cards to one individual, who<br />
was immediately fired.” The parallels to ACORN are pretty much exact.</p>
<p>So, let’s have all those ACORN bashers now start going after the Republican National Committee. They <b><i>will </i></b>do that, right?</p>
<div style="width: 1px; height: 1px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font: 10pt sans-serif; text-align: left; text-transform: none; overflow: hidden;">Read more here: <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html#storylink=cpy" rel="nofollow">http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html#storylink=cpy</a></div></p>
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		<title>By: dcpetterson</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41860</link>
		<dc:creator>dcpetterson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 01:56:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41860</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Repub­li­can elec­tion reg­is­tra­tion effort caught fraud­u­lently reg­is­ter­ing vot­ers in Florida.
&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://
​www​.mcclatchydc​.com/​2​0​1​2​/​0​9​/​2​7​/​1​6​9​9​5​0​/​r​e​p​u​b​l​
i​c​a​n​s​-​f​i​r​e​-​f​i​r​m​-​a​c​c​u​s​e​d​.​h​tml&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CC --&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is &lt;i&gt;&lt;b&gt;EXACTLY&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/i&gt; what happened with ACORN. Except that the Democrats didn&#039;t &lt;i&gt;hire&lt;/i&gt; ACORN.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;What happened there was that ACORN, an independent voter registration organization, hired individuals to register voters, and paid them based on the number of registrations they turned in. A few of these individuals turned in invented registrations, in order to get money they didn&#039;t deserve. In other words, ACORN got scammed. &lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;ACORN discovered the fraud and fired the contractors. But Republicans gave them crap for the whole debacle, and forced ACORN to disband. And they&#160;
tarred Democrats with it, implying Democrats had been involved in voter 
fraud (even though there was &lt;i&gt;no&lt;/i&gt; voter fraud involved, and even though the only victim here was ACORN). &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Likewise here, the Republican National Committee, taking the role of ACORN, hired Strategic Allied Consulting, taking the role of independent contractors. Strategic Allied Consulting created false registrations in order to bilk money from the Republican National Committee (who paid Strategic Allied Consulting around $2.9 million).&#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Republican National Committee, like ACORN, discovered the fraud and fired the contractors.&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;If ACORN could be accused of voter fraud, clearly the Republican National Committee should be as well. It&#039;s precisely the same situation. If ACORN was forced to disband over this incident, perhaps the Republican National Committee should be forced to disband as well. &lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;By the way, since the Republican National Committee had collected some number of fraudulent registrations, that means estimates of the number of new Republican registrations are &lt;i&gt;too high&lt;/i&gt;. There have been &lt;i&gt;fewer&lt;/i&gt; new Republican registrations than media reports have indicated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I think I&#039;ll repeat this comment in tomorrow&#039;s Open Mike thread.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Thank you for that discovery, CC!&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Repub­li­can elec­tion reg­is­tra­tion effort caught fraud­u­lently reg­is­ter­ing vot­ers in Florida.
</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html" rel="nofollow">http://<br />
​www​.mcclatchydc​.com/​2​0​1​2​/​0​9​/​2​7​/​1​6​9​9​5​0​/​r​e​p​u​b​l​<br />
i​c​a​n​s​-​f​i​r​e​-​f​i​r​m​-​a​c​c​u​s​e​d​.​h​tml</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>CC –</p>
<p>This is <i><b>EXACTLY</b></i> what happened with ACORN. Except that the Democrats didn’t <i>hire</i> ACORN.</p>
<p>What happened there was that ACORN, an independent voter registration organization, hired individuals to register voters, and paid them based on the number of registrations they turned in. A few of these individuals turned in invented registrations, in order to get money they didn’t deserve. In other words, ACORN got scammed. </p>
<p>ACORN discovered the fraud and fired the contractors. But Republicans gave them crap for the whole debacle, and forced ACORN to disband. And they <br />
tarred Democrats with it, implying Democrats had been involved in voter<br />
fraud (even though there was <i>no</i> voter fraud involved, and even though the only victim here was ACORN). </p>
<p>Likewise here, the Republican National Committee, taking the role of ACORN, hired Strategic Allied Consulting, taking the role of independent contractors. Strategic Allied Consulting created false registrations in order to bilk money from the Republican National Committee (who paid Strategic Allied Consulting around $2.9 million). </p>
<p>The Republican National Committee, like ACORN, discovered the fraud and fired the contractors.</p>
<p>If ACORN could be accused of voter fraud, clearly the Republican National Committee should be as well. It’s precisely the same situation. If ACORN was forced to disband over this incident, perhaps the Republican National Committee should be forced to disband as well. </p>
<p>By the way, since the Republican National Committee had collected some number of fraudulent registrations, that means estimates of the number of new Republican registrations are <i>too high</i>. There have been <i>fewer</i> new Republican registrations than media reports have indicated.</p>
<p>I think I’ll repeat this comment in tomorrow’s Open Mike thread.</p>
<p>Thank you for that discovery, CC!</p></p>
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		<title>By: channelclemente</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41858</link>
		<dc:creator>channelclemente</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 01:52:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41858</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Deep dive my ***. &#160;They should hang around here for a while.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-electoral-college-map-swing-states-odds-2012-9&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-electoral-college-map-swing-states-odds-2012-9&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Deep dive my ***.  They should hang around here for a while.
</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-electoral-college-map-swing-states-odds-2012-9" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-electoral-college-map-swing-states-odds-2012–9</a></p>
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		<title>By: Rose</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41857</link>
		<dc:creator>Rose</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 01:09:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41857</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;Granted these are not high-paying jobs, but Sears is hiring, KFC is hiring, a crafts store, two new restaurants and a 24 hr fitness center are opening all within a mile of my house.&#160; Things feel like they are picking up.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[</p>
<p>Granted these are not high-paying jobs, but Sears is hiring, KFC is hiring, a crafts store, two new restaurants and a 24 hr fitness center are opening all within a mile of my house.  Things feel like they are picking up.</p>
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		<title>By: channelclemente</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41856</link>
		<dc:creator>channelclemente</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41856</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Republican election registration effort caught fraudulently registering voters in Florida.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Republican election registration effort caught fraudulently registering voters in Florida.
</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/27/169950/republicans-fire-firm-accused.html</a></p>
<p></p>
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		<title>By: channelclemente</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41855</link>
		<dc:creator>channelclemente</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41855</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[dc,&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;what is it the comedian Don Rickles used to say, &quot;you get a cookie&quot;. &#160;All kidding aside, if Obama gets &#039;good&#039; jobs numbers next week (I think) on top of these readjustments up, this could get completely away from the GOP.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>dc,
</p>
<p>what is it the comedian Don Rickles used to say, “you get a cookie”.  All kidding aside, if Obama gets ‘good’ jobs numbers next week (I think) on top of these readjustments up, this could get completely away from the GOP.</p>
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		<title>By: channelclemente</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41854</link>
		<dc:creator>channelclemente</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Bureau of Labor Statistics just revised the jobs numbers up 386,000 from March 12, 2012 to current. &#160;That totals a 5,000,000+ job increase, and officially Obama&#039;s jobs number exceeds that of Bush II in January 2008.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics just revised the jobs numbers up 386,000 from March 12, 2012 to current.  That totals a 5,000,000+ job increase, and officially Obama’s jobs number exceeds that of Bush II in January 2008.</p>
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		<title>By: dawolf</title>
		<link>http://www.logarchism.com/2012/09/27/ballot-watch-plains-states/comment-page-1/#comment-41853</link>
		<dc:creator>dawolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2012 23:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.logarchism.com/?p=18930#comment-41853</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[dc - they are unlikely to be opposites, so you&#039;re really looking at conditional probabilities (its too late for me to double check).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;br&gt;ie, assume 20% chance of Obama Landslide, you&#039;d probably have say a 40% chance of Democrat 56/57 seats, and close enough to 0% of Republicans winning the Senate as makes no difference. Assume 20% chance of Romney win, 40% chance of Republicans winning Senate, 0 of Democrats getting 56/57 seats. Obama win (non landslide), 20% and 20% (pure guesses, all).&lt;br&gt;

That works out as :&lt;br&gt;
8% chance Obama Landslide + 56/57,
12% chance Obama Landslide
12% chance Obama win + 56/57
36% chance Obama win
12% chance Obama win + Republican Senate
12% chance Romney win
8% chance Romney win + Republican Senate&lt;br&gt;

&lt;br&gt;The interesting point there is that the Republicans have only an 8% chance of taking both Senate + Presidency using these guesstimates. But anyway, huge amount of assumptions in those numbers so they shouldn&#039;t really be trusted.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>dc — they are unlikely to be opposites, so you’re really looking at conditional probabilities (its too late for me to double check).
</p>
<p>ie, assume 20% chance of Obama Landslide, you’d probably have say a 40% chance of Democrat 56/57 seats, and close enough to 0% of Republicans winning the Senate as makes no difference. Assume 20% chance of Romney win, 40% chance of Republicans winning Senate, 0 of Democrats getting 56/57 seats. Obama win (non landslide), 20% and 20% (pure guesses, all).</p>
<p>That works out as :<br />
8% chance Obama Landslide + 56/57,<br />
12% chance Obama Landslide<br />
12% chance Obama win + 56/57<br />
36% chance Obama win<br />
12% chance Obama win + Republican Senate<br />
12% chance Romney win<br />
8% chance Romney win + Republican Senate</p>
<p>The interesting point there is that the Republicans have only an 8% chance of taking both Senate + Presidency using these guesstimates. But anyway, huge amount of assumptions in those numbers so they shouldn’t really be trusted.</p>
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