While polling is still pretty hot, move­ment seems to have slowed down this week in the Sen­ate races. But we did have two states move.

Here is the cur­rent map:

As always, “Con­tin­u­ing” refers to the seats in Sen­ate Classes 2 and 3, which are not up for elec­tion this cycle. And, also as always, the details are below the fold.

Here the high­lights of the past week, walk­ing from the Pacific to the Atlantic:

  • Nevada: One new poll in the past week, from WeAskAmer­ica, has the race tied between Repub­li­can incum­bent Sen­a­tor Dean Heller and his chal­lenger, Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Shel­ley Berkley (D-​​Las Vegas). I need to see at least a cou­ple of polls with Berkley ahead to move this race to “Tossup”. Until then, Nevada remains “Leans Repub­li­can”. Intrade’s mar­kets show Heller at 62 per­cent (unchanged from last week), and Berkley at 38 per­cent (down two).
  • Ari­zona: Two new polls were con­ducted this past week. HighGround/​Moore shows Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jeff Flake (R-​​Mesa) with a three point lead over Demo­c­rat Richard Car­mona, while Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling saw Car­mona up by two, which adjusts to a tie. Ari­zona remains “Likely Repub­li­can”. The Intrade mar­kets agree, with Flake now get­ting 68 per­cent (up eight from last week) to Carmona’s 32 (down eight).
  • New Mex­ico: No new polls, but Intraders clearly expect Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Mar­tin Hein­rich (D-​​Albuquerque) to beat his pre­de­ces­sor, for­mer Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Heather Wil­son (R-​​Albuquerque), in this race; Hein­rich has 95 per­cent to Wilson’s ten per­cent. New Mex­ico stays “Likely Demo­c­rat”, and drops off this list, bar­ring a sud­den shift to the right.
  • Mon­tana: No new polls this week. Intraders are still inclined to believe Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Denny Rehberg (R)will win here; he is given a 69 per­cent like­li­hood (up nine from last week), with Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Jon Tester at 39 per­cent (down one). With­out any new polls to move it, Mon­tana stays “Tossup”.
  • North Dakota: Finally a new poll. Mason-​​Dixon found Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Rick Berg (R) tied with state Attor­ney Gen­eral Heidi Heitkamp. I’ve had a sus­pi­cion for a while that the race might be tied. I’m mov­ing North Dakota to “Tossup”. The Intrade mar­kets think that Berg has the edge; they give him 63 per­cent (down two from last week) to Heitkamp’s 31 per­cent (down 12).
  • Mis­souri: Two new polls were released this week. In an unusual devel­op­ment, Ras­mussen and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling both saw the same six point lead for incum­bent Demo­c­ra­tic Sen­a­tor Claire McCaskill over Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Todd Akin (R-​​Wildwood). The over­all con­sen­sus is that this is now McCaskill’s race to lose. Last week, I noted that I expected Mis­souri to move to “Leans Demo­c­rat”, but the lack of new polls kept it on “Tossup”. The new polls change that, so the Show Me State moves one col­umn to the left. Intraders agree, giv­ing McCaskill a 62 per­cent chance to Akin’s 37 percent.
  • Wis­con­sin: One new poll, from Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling, has Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Tammy Bald­win (D-​​Madison) with a three point lead over Repub­li­can for­mer Gov­er­nor Tommy Thomp­son. But the Intrade mar­ket has been busy, and Repub­li­can for­mer Thomp­son has a 37 per­cent chance (unchanged from last week) to Baldwin’s 65 per­cent (down two). I was look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion to move Wis­con­sin to the “Likely Demo­c­rat” col­umn, but this wasn’t it. The Bad­ger State stays “Leans Democrat”.
  • Indi­ana: No new polls, and the light polling and close results of them leave Indi­ana a “Tossup”. Intrade mar­kets show essen­tially the same thing, with Mour­dock lead­ing with a 55 per­cent chance (up three from last week) to 45 per­cent (down four).
  • Ohio: Four new polls were pub­lished in the past week. Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling and NBC/​Wall Street Jour­nal/​Marist saw eight and nine point leads for Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Sher­rod Brown over Repub­li­can state Trea­surer Josh Man­del. WeAskAmer­ica, with its more con­ser­v­a­tive lean, has Brown up by two, and Ras­mussen came away with a tie, which adjusts to a small Brown lead. Ohio stays “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders give him a 72 per­cent chance (down three from last week) to Mandel’s 29 per­cent (up four).
  • Florida: Three new polls were pub­lished this week. NBC/​Wall Street Jour­nal/​Marist and Ras­mussen have Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Bill Nel­son with an 11 point lead over Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Con­nie Mack, IV (R-​​Fort Mey­ers). WeAskAmer­ica, on the other hand, shows a tie. Before the Ras­mussen poll, I thought the Marist poll was an out­lier. Now it appears that WeAskAmer­ica is the out­lier. Regard­less, the over­all view isn’t enough to move the Sun­shine State to the right; Florida remains “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders agree, giv­ing Nel­son a 90 per­cent chance of win­ning to Mack’s 20 percent.
  • Vir­ginia: Three new polls were pub­lished over the past week. NBC/​Wall Street Jour­nal/​Marist, Ras­mussen, and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling showed Demo­c­ra­tic for­mer Gov­er­nor Tim Kaine lead­ing Repub­li­can for­mer Gov­er­nor George Allen by five, seven, and seven points, respec­tively. This shows why last week’s lone tie wasn’t enough to move Vir­ginia out of “Leans Demo­c­rat”. There’s still too much volatil­ity to move the Old Domin­ion another col­umn to the left as well, but we’re start­ing to see evi­dence of the race set­tling down. Intraders are still con­fi­dent in a Kaine vic­tory, giv­ing him a 78 per­cent chance of win­ning (up three from a week ago), to Allen’s 38 per­cent (up eight).
  • Penn­syl­va­nia: No new polls this week. Intraders still have high expec­ta­tions of incum­bent Demo­c­ra­tic Sen­a­tor Bob Casey, Jr., beat­ing coal mine tycoon Tom Smith next month. They give Casey a 94 per­cent chance of win­ning, to Smith’s 25 per­cent. Penn­syl­va­nia remains “Likely Democrat”.
  • Con­necti­cut: While last week looked bet­ter for Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Chris Mur­phy (D-​​Cheshire)*, this week looks less so. The lat­est Quin­nip­iac poll gives Repub­li­can Linda McMa­hon a one point lead over Mur­phy for a while. Con­necti­cut remains a “Tossup”. Intraders dis­agree, giv­ing Mur­phy the edge with a 60 per­cent chance, to McMahon’s 30 percent.
  • Mass­a­chu­setts: One new poll, from West­ern New Eng­land Uni­ver­sity, has a five point lead for Demo­c­rat Eliz­a­beth War­ren over Repub­li­can incum­bent Sen­a­tor Scott Brown. It appears that the move­ment in Warren’s direc­tion has ended, and we’re now sta­bi­lized at a plateau. It’s enough of a plateau to keep Mass­a­chu­setts at “Leans Demo­c­rat”. Intrade is less con­fi­dent than last week; War­ren is given a 67 per­cent chance (down 19 points in the past week) to Brown’s 34 (up five from a week ago).
  • Maine: No new polls, but Intraders are still bull­ish on inde­pen­dent Angus King, who is expected to cau­cus with the Democ­rats should he win. They give King a 92 per­cent chance of win­ning, to six per­cent for Repub­li­can Char­lie Sum­mers and four per­cent for Demo­c­rat Cyn­thia Dill. It’s still “Likely Independent”.

Two states moved columns this week; Mis­souri and North Dakota bumped left to “Leans Demo­c­rat” and “Tossup”, respec­tively, and so our four tossups from last week become a new group of four: Con­necti­cut, Indi­ana, Mon­tana, and Nort Dakota. Repub­li­cans’ best chance is unclear, as they seem to have about equal chances in Indi­ana, Mon­tana, and North Dakota; Democ­rats’ best chance is Con­necti­cut. The Repub­li­cans’ like­li­hood of tak­ing over the Sen­ate fell a hair in my model, but rose a hair in the mar­kets this week; Intrade mar­kets give Repub­li­cans about an 24 per­cent chance of hold­ing at least 51 Sen­ate seats (up six points from last week), with a 63 per­cent chance of Democ­rats hold­ing at least 50 seats (down four), and now a 14 per­cent chance of either 48 or 49 seats (up two).

How cred­i­ble do you think those mar­ket num­bers are? Do you agree or dis­agree with my state analy­ses above?

*Editor’s note: I erro­neously referred to Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Chris Mur­phy as the incum­bent Sen­a­tor for Con­necti­cut. Mur­phy is run­ning to replace retir­ing Sen­a­tor Joe Lieber­man (I-​​CT).

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