We’re but a week away from Elec­tion Day, and that means it’s time once again to step up the fre­quency of the Watches. Start­ing today, I am com­bin­ing the Reëlec­tion and Sen­ate watches into a sin­gle arti­cle, which will run today, Sat­ur­day, and Elec­tion Day, when I will deliver my final predictions.

This makes today’s arti­cle far length­ier than usual, but packed with nutri­tional data. And tasty, too.

I’ll start by look­ing at the ele­ments that cross offices, and then delve into the Sen­ate, fol­lowed by the Pres­i­den­tial race. 

Early Vot­ing

Early vot­ing is now avail­able in all states. The green states are accept­ing absen­tee bal­lots, but not early in-​​person bal­lots, while the gold states are accept­ing both.

Twenty-​​nine states allow in-​​person vot­ing today, though today is the last day in the shaded Louisiana; of the bat­tle­ground states, in-​​person vot­ing includes Col­orado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Car­olina, Ohio, and Wis­con­sin. Michi­gan and Vir­ginia don’t offer early in-​​person vot­ing. Many states stop early in-​​person vot­ing on Novem­ber 1, 2, or 3, includ­ing Col­orado, Florida, and Nevada. Ohio was going to be one of them, until ordered by the courts to per­mit it through the weekend.

Inter­est­ingly, Democ­rats are sig­nif­i­cantly out­num­ber­ing Repub­li­cans in early vot­ing in North Car­olina. It’s unclear if this will carry over to Novem­ber 6, but it’s worth not­ing that the ratio mim­ics that of 2008, though both par­ties are vot­ing early in greater num­bers than they did four years ago.

Sen­ate

Now that the clock is run­ning out, the “Tossup” and “Leans” zones are mighty small. This is squeez­ing the states to one side or the other, as you’ll see below.

Here is the cur­rent map:

 

As always, “Con­tin­u­ing” refers to the seats in Sen­ate Classes 2 and 3, which are not up for elec­tion this cycle.

Here the high­lights of the past week, walk­ing from the Pacific to the Atlantic:

  • Nevada: Three new polls in the past week. Ras­mussen and NBC/​Wall Street Jour­nal/​Marist show Repub­li­can incum­bent Sen­a­tor Dean Heller lead­ing Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Shel­ley Berkley (D-​​Las Vegas) by five and three points, respec­tively. Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling has the race tied. The over­all adjusted mar­gin is exactly where Marist is, just a touch closer than it was a week ago. As I noted last week, the story here is com­plex. On the one hand, this sort of rel­a­tively sta­ble mar­gin should mean “Likely Repub­li­can” this late in the cycle. On the other hand, the recent Behav­ior Research Cen­ter poll in Ari­zona sug­gested that the ever-​​increasing His­panic vote is not being ade­quately cap­tured in most cur­rent polling meth­ods. Per­haps this explains why the past two bien­nial elec­tions have had Democ­rats over­per­form­ing the polls. I’m keep­ing Nevada “Leans Repub­li­can”, but I’m def­i­nitely curi­ous to see how Berkley does rel­a­tive to the polls. Intrade’s mar­kets show Heller at 65 per­cent (down 15 from last week), and Berkley at 36 per­cent (up 11).
  • Ari­zona: Ras­mussen had a poll here this week show­ing Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jeff Flake (R-​​Mesa) six points ahead of Demo­c­rat Richard Car­mona. It’s tough to deter­mine the true pic­ture from a lone poll like this. Nearly every poll has shown Flake ahead, but not recently. Polls have been sparse in Ari­zona. And the Behav­ior Research Cen­ter poll sug­gests that His­pan­ics have been under­rep­re­sented. I’m leav­ing the Grand Canyon state “Tossup”, though I sus­pect Flake has a small edge here. The Intrade mar­kets are still con­fi­dent about Flake; he’s at 70 per­cent (down six from last week) to Carmona’s 40 (up five).
  • Mon­tana: No new polls this week, but the recent trend had Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Jon Tester effec­tively tied with at-​​large Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Denny Rehberg. Unsur­pris­ingly, Mon­tana is still a “Tossup”. Intraders are still inclined to believe Rehberg will win here, though not as much as last week; he is given a 60 per­cent like­li­hood (down ten from last week), with Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Jon Tester at 40 per­cent (up seven).
  • North Dakota: No new polls in this race. Polls have been highly bimodal, either show­ing Repub­li­can at-​​large Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Rick Berg well ahead of state Attor­ney Gen­eral Heidi Heitkamp, or show­ing the race tied. The modes have been based on the polling firms, not the dates, so it’s nigh impos­si­ble to deter­mine which mode is the cor­rect one. For this rea­son, I’m call­ing North Dakota a “Tossup”, but it’s either going to be really close or Heitkamp will find that she has been sunk by a Berg. Intrade has Berg at 83 per­cent (down two from last week) to Heitkamp’s 19 per­cent (up four).
  • Mis­souri: One new poll from Post Dis­patch/​Mason-​​Dixon has Incum­bent Demo­c­ra­tic Sen­a­tor Claire McCaskill lead­ing Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Todd Akin (R-​​Wildwood) by two points. There hasn’t been a sin­gle poll in Octo­ber show­ing Akin ahead, and the only one since late August was from Gravis, at a time when they were espe­cially right-​​leaning. Mis­souri remains “Likely Demo­c­rat”, though Real­Clear­Pol­i­tics seems to believe that it’s a tossup. Intraders agree with me, giv­ing McCaskill a 79 per­cent chance (up seven from last week) to Akin’s 21 per­cent (up six).
  • Wis­con­sin: One new poll this week from Ras­mussen shows Repub­li­can for­mer Gov­er­nor Tommy Thomp­son ahead of Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Tammy Bald­win (D-​​Madison) by a mere one point. This is a left shift of a point for Ras­mussen from last week. With no evi­dence of a right­ward shift, I’m keep­ing Wis­con­sin at “Leans Demo­c­rat”, but it’s still fairly close to the bor­der with “Tossup”. Intrade has Thomp­son at a 36 per­cent chance (unchanged from last week) to Baldwin’s 60 per­cent (down five).
  • Indi­ana: No new polls this week, but Repub­li­can can­di­date Richard Mour­dock cre­ated an inter­est­ing story. His sug­ges­tion that a child con­ceived from rape should be con­sid­ered a gift from God echoes a com­ment made by Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Todd Akin (R-​​Wildwood, MO). Akin’s state­ment effec­tively destroyed his can­di­dacy; he hasn’t led in a poll since then (aside from an obvi­ous Gravis out­lier). In Mis­souri, Akin dropped around 15 points overnight, though there was some rever­sion to the mean about a week later. Even so, the final shift in Mis­souri was about ten points. If we extrap­o­late that behav­ior to the sim­i­lar Indi­ana, and even dis­count the effects rel­a­tive to Mis­souri, this should still give Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Joe Don­nelly (D-​​Granger) the edge now. For this rea­son, I’m shift­ing Indi­ana from “Tossup” to “Leans Demo­c­rat”. Intrade mar­kets agree, with Don­nelly lead­ing with a 53 per­cent chance (up a whop­ping 27 from last week), and Mour­dock now with a 41 per­cent chance (down an aston­ish­ing 39 from last week).
  • Ohio: Four new polls were pub­lished in the past week. Sur­veyUSA, Ras­mussen, Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling, and Gravis saw Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Sher­rod Brown five points ahead of Repub­li­can state Trea­surer Josh Man­del by one, four, 11, and one point, respec­tively. Account­ing for house bias, Ohio stays “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders give Brown an 80 per­cent chance (down seven from last week) to Mandel’s 20 per­cent (up five).
  • Florida: Three new polls this week, from Sun­shine State News/​VSS, Ras­mussen, and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling, show Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Ben Nel­son ahead of Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Con­nie Mack, IV (R-​​Fort Mey­ers) by five, three, and eight points, respec­tively. This close to the elec­tion, those num­bers mean Florida remains “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders agree, giv­ing Nel­son a 85 per­cent chance of win­ning (up one from last week) to Mack’s 17 per­cent (up three).
  • Vir­ginia: Three new polls were pub­lished this past week. Ras­mussen and Wash­ing­ton Post found Demo­c­ra­tic for­mer Gov­er­nor Tim Kaine lead­ing Repub­li­can for­mer Gov­er­nor George Allen by one point and seven points, respec­tively. Gravis, on the other hand, sees Allen up by two. Account­ing for house bias it’s just enough of a mar­gin to move the Old Domin­ion into “Leans Demo­c­rat”. Intraders are still con­fi­dent in a Kaine vic­tory, giv­ing him a 75 per­cent chance of win­ning (up three from a week ago), to Allen’s 26 per­cent (down eight).
  • Penn­syl­va­nia: Three new polls this week. Morn­ing Call, Ras­mussen, and Philadel­phia Inquirer show Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent Sen­a­tor Bob Casey, Jr., lead­ing coal mine CEO Tom Smith by eight, one, and seven points, respec­tively. Momen­tum is no longer in Smith’s favor, and the short remain­ing win­dow of time means Penn­syl­va­nia moves back “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders still have high expec­ta­tions of Casey, though muted some­what, giv­ing him a 75 per­cent chance of win­ning (down 15 from last week), to Smith’s 15 per­cent (down ten).
  • Con­necti­cut: Three new polls were pub­lished this week. Sur­veyUSA, Quin­nip­iac, and Ras­mussen have Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Chris Mur­phy (D-​​Cheshire) lead­ing WWE exec­u­tive Linda McMa­hon by four, six, and six points, respec­tively. With so lit­tle time left to move, and that size mar­gin, Con­necti­cut moves to “Likely Demo­c­rat”. Intraders agree, giv­ing Mur­phy the edge with a 79 per­cent chance (up 13 from last week), to McMahon’s 25 per­cent (down eight).
  • Mass­a­chu­setts: Three new polls were pub­lished this week. WBUR/​MassINC and Ras­mussen show Demo­c­rat Eliz­a­beth War­ren ahead of Repub­li­can incum­bent Sen­a­tor Scott Brown by six and five points, respec­tively. On the other hand, the Boston Globe has the race tied. There’s been some noise, but the over­all bell curve is in Warren’s favor; Mass­a­chu­setts stays “Leans Demo­c­rat”. Intrade is less con­fi­dent than last week; War­ren is given a 77 per­cent chance (up five points in the past week) to Brown’s 24 (down three from a week ago).
  • Maine: No new polls, but Intraders are still bull­ish on inde­pen­dent Angus King, who is expected to cau­cus with the Democ­rats should he win. They give King a 97 per­cent chance of win­ning (up five from last week), to five per­cent for Repub­li­can Char­lie Sum­mers (down one) and four per­cent for Demo­c­rat Cyn­thia Dill (unchanged). It’s still “Likely Independent”.

Four states shifted one col­umn to the left this week. Indi­ana and Vir­ginia moved to “Leans Demo­c­rat”, though the for­mer is the one shift with­out cor­rob­o­rat­ing polling data. Penn­syl­va­nia moved back to “Likely Demo­c­rat”, after a week in the “Leans Demo­c­rat” col­umn. And Con­necti­cut moved into “Likely Demo­c­rat” at an aus­pi­cious time. Our five tossups from last week have whit­tled down to three: Ari­zona, Mon­tana, and North Dakota. Repub­li­cans have vary­ing edges in all three. The Repub­li­cans’ like­li­hood of tak­ing over the Sen­ate was unchanged this week in my model, but was essen­tially unchanged in mar­kets this week; Intrade mar­kets give Repub­li­cans about an 19 per­cent chance of hold­ing at least 51 Sen­ate seats (down six from last week), with a 70 per­cent chance of Democ­rats hold­ing at least 50 seats (up four), and an 11 per­cent chance of either 48 or 49 seats (unchanged). In the indi­vid­ual num­ber mar­kets, Intraders remain con­fi­dent that Repub­li­cans will hold 48 seats, which would be a net gain of one.

Pres­i­dent

We’re now in the home stretch. Both can­di­dates have essen­tially used all of their ammu­ni­tion. How­ever, Hur­ri­cane Sandy has the poten­tial to shift vot­ing on Elec­tion Day. Typ­i­cally, if dis­as­ter man­age­ment is han­dled well by the incum­bent Pres­i­dent, it shifts votes in his direc­tion. Con­versely, a poorly-​​handled response (e.g., the response to Hur­ri­cane Kat­rina) shifts votes away from the incum­bent. Obama has one oppor­tu­nity to make a last push, then; the ball is in his court.

Beyond Sandy, it’s hard to imag­ine any­thing hap­pen­ing between now and next week to sig­nif­i­cantly impact the election.

Now, let’s dive into the numbers.

National Polls

Since Octo­ber 15, in the national pop­u­lar vote matchup of Pres­i­dent Barack Obama ver­sus Repub­li­can nom­i­nee Mitt Rom­ney, the Repub­li­can has led in more polls than he has trailed, though by a 2:1 ratio, which has con­verged to a national lead of just under a point. As I’ve noted before, and con­tinue to observe, the national polls are to the right of the state polls, and state polls have his­tor­i­cally been more accu­rate than their national coun­ter­parts. Nonethe­less, the President’s national poll posi­tion is now 2.5 points behind Pres­i­dent George W. Bush’s on this date eight years ago, and nine points below his posi­tion four years ago.

Since the first Pres­i­den­tial debate, Obama and Rom­ney have been effec­tively tied in their favor­a­bil­ity polls. Rom­ney has smaller unfa­vor­ables than does Obama, though.

As of yes­ter­day, Intrade had Obama at 62, down a point from last week.

Over­all, for the past month, things on the national level have been sketchy for the President.

The Elec­toral College

Here’s what the Elec­toral Col­lege looks like:

 

Here are the key states, from red­dest to bluest:

  • Indi­ana has had no new polls in a long time. Were we to stay strictly with the polling model, Indi­ana would remain “Leans Rom­ney”. But it’s highly unlikely that Hoosiers will go for Obama this time around, given the broader pic­ture. For this rea­son, I’m aban­don­ing the Pres­i­den­tial model for Indi­ana, just as I did the Sen­ate model above. Indi­ana moves to “Likely Romney”.
  • North Car­olina had no new polls in the past three days. North Car­olina remains “Leans Rom­ney”. Intraders give Rom­ney an 75 per­cent chance of car­ry­ing the Tarheel State, down five from Fri­day. Nate Sil­ver gives Rom­ney an 82 per­cent chance here, up one from Fri­day. I have Rom­ney at 80.
  • Florida got polled twice in the past three days. Mell­man saw the race tied, while Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling found a one point lead for Obama. House bias pushes this slightly to the right of cen­ter, and the three other polls I men­tioned on Sat­ur­day (which over­lapped with these two), push the Sun­shine State a touch fur­ther to the right. Florida stays “Likely Rom­ney”, based on the over­all right lean to the poll results and the roughly two point sys­temic advan­tage Rom­ney already enjoys. Florid­i­ans have been able to vote for a month. Intraders give Rom­ney a 72 per­cent chance of pick­ing up Florida’s 29 elec­toral votes, unchanged from Fri­day. Nate’s model is less con­fi­dent, giv­ing Rom­ney “only” a 62 per­cent chance, down three from Fri­day. Were it not for the sys­temic advan­tage, I’d agree with Nate’s num­ber. With that advan­tage, the Intrade mar­ket looks closer to the truth to me; I have Rom­ney at 70.
  • Vir­ginia was polled three times in the past three days. Pur­ple Strate­gies and Gravis, both of whom have had a right lean, show a tied race. The Wash­ing­ton Post sees a four point lead for Obama. All in all, it’s still close enough to keep Vir­ginia a “Tossup”, though it looks a lit­tle bet­ter for Obama this week than it did Fri­day. Vir­gini­ans have been able to vote for quite a while now. The Intrade mar­ket has Rom­ney at 53 per­cent, down five from Fri­day. Nate’s model dis­agrees, giv­ing Obama a 60 per­cent chance, up six. I agree with Nate here.
  • Col­orado had two polls pub­lished since Fri­day. Pur­ple Strate­gies and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling have Obama ahead by one point and three points, respec­tively. The house effects can­cel each other out, mak­ing the most recent batch a two point Obama lead. Col­orado stays a “Tossup”, though tinged blue. Intraders dis­agree with me; the Col­orado mar­ket has Rom­ney at 52 per­cent, up three from Fri­day. Nate’s model is more bull­ish on the Pres­i­dent, peg­ging him at 58 per­cent, up one. I think real­ity lies some­where between the two num­bers, with Obama at 55, up one.
  • New Hamp­shire had three polls pub­lished in the past three days. Grove, New Eng­land Col­lege, and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling show Obama ahead by three, three, and two points, respec­tively. New Hamp­shire still “Leans Obama”. On Intrade, Obama has the lead at 60 per­cent, up three from Fri­day. Nate’s model has Obama at 72 per­cent, up three. I’m not quite as bull­ish as Nate is, but I put New Hamp­shire at 63 for Obama, up three.
  • Iowa had a new poll pub­lished by Gravis, who found Obama up by four. That’s prob­a­bly a bit to the left of real­ity, but not so far as to move Iowa into “Tossup”, so Iowa remains “Leans Obama”, a posi­tion it has held dur­ing the entire time bal­lots have been able to be cast. On Intrade, Obama has the lead here, with a 64 per­cent chance, down one from Fri­day. Nate’s model is very opti­mistic for Obama, putting him at 73 per­cent, up four. I think they’re both too opti­mistic; I have Iowa at 60, unchanged from Friday.
  • Ohio was polled five times in the past three days. Amer­i­can Research Group, CNN/​Opinion Research, Pur­ple Strate­gies, Gravis, and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling saw Obama leads of two, four, two, one, and four points, respec­tively. Account­ing for house bias, Ohio is as com­fort­ably in “Leans Obama” ter­ri­tory as it was on Sat­ur­day. Buck­eyes have been able to vote for a month now. The Intrade mar­ket gives the edge to Obama, at 63 per­cent, down one from Fri­day. Nate’s model says Obama has a 75 per­cent chance, unchanged from Fri­day. Mine says 66, right on the bor­der of “Likely Obama”, and also unchanged from Friday.
  • Nevada got polled twice since Sat­ur­day. Gravis and Call­Fire saw Obama leads of one and four points, respec­tively. Nei­ther have par­tic­u­larly good track records, but they are also not far enough from the his­tor­i­cal trend to sug­gest any new infor­ma­tion. The Sil­ver State remains “Likely Obama”. Intraders are really bull­ish for the Pres­i­dent this week; he is trad­ing at 82 per­cent, up two points from Fri­day. Nate is almost as bull­ish, at 80 per­cent, up one. I’m not quite that san­guine, but I have Nevada at 70, where it was on Friday.
  • Wis­con­sin got polled twice this week. Angus Reid and Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling show Obama up by five and six points, respec­tively. Even account­ing for house bias, this is still a com­fort­able lead for the Pres­i­dent at this stage of the elec­tion cycle. Last time I said we needed to keep an eye out, because polls were some­what sug­ges­tive of a tight­en­ing race. With the newest round of polls, the pic­ture looks clearer. I’m mov­ing Wis­con­sin to “Likely Obama”, given the lack of move­ment toward Rom­ney and the short time remain­ing for Rom­ney to pull off a vic­tory here. Intraders remain con­fi­dent in Obama here, trad­ing him at 73 per­cent, up four from Fri­day. Nate con­sid­ers Wis­con­sin likely Obama, at 87 per­cent, up one. I split the two, hav­ing Obama at 80, up five.

Wis­con­sin was the lone mover since Sat­ur­day, shift­ing one col­umn to the left. Based on the model, Obama has a prob­a­ble 281 elec­toral votes, the same as last week. It’s now been four con­sec­u­tive months in which Obama could lose all tossups and still stay in the White House.

Con­clu­sion

On the Sen­ate front, it looks to me as if Repub­li­cans will pick up two seats cur­rently held by Democ­rats (Nebraska and North Dakota), while Democ­rats appear poised to pick up two seats cur­rently held by Repub­li­cans (Indi­ana and Mass­a­chu­setts). If so, the new Sen­ate bal­ance will match the old, at least in terms of party affiliation.

In the Pres­i­den­tial race, the national polls still show the race effec­tively tied, while the state tal­lies con­tinue to indi­cate a com­fort­able Obama lead. His­tor­i­cally, the state-​​by-​​state tal­lies have been more accu­rate than the national ones, which leads me to believe that Obama still has the edge.

What if I’m wrong, and the national num­bers are right? If so, then we should shift the states about two points to the right. Rom­ney would pick up Vir­ginia, Col­orado, New Hamp­shire, and Iowa, giv­ing him 267 elec­toral votes. Rom­ney would then need three more elec­toral votes. In this sce­nario, Ohio would still lean to Obama based on the polls, but would be Romney’s most likely pickup. While the sys­temic forces in Ohio aren’t as strong as they are in Florida, they could be enough to push Ohio to Rom­ney if the national num­bers are right. This sce­nario is less likely today than it was a week ago. Alter­na­tively, Rom­ney could pick up Nevada or Wis­con­sin, but those appear to be out of reach as well.

If I had to pre­dict an Elec­toral Col­lege result based on the model, which puts more empha­sis on the state polls, I’d shift things a hair from last week. Both tossups, which last week were in Romney’s col­umn, would now be Obama’s. This would give Obama 303, and Rom­ney 235.

How do you feel about these pre­dic­tions? Do you dif­fer on them? If so, how, where, and why?

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