113 th Congress: Veer Slightly Left; It’s the Last One on the Right
Michael has been doing an excellent job with the Senate and Reëlection Watches. I’m certainly interested to see how his prediction model works on November 6.
I have been doing a series of House reports, compiling the ratings from various sources and reporting on them here. A link to my last House report on August 23 is here, if you want to compare to past analyses. This will be my final update on the experts’ projections for the House of Representatives in the 113th Congress, which convenes January 3, 2013.
The current makeup of the House is 242 Republicans (including two vacant seats) and 193 Democrats (including two vacant seats). A majority is 218 seats. The Speaker of the House, elected by the majority party, is John Boehner (R-Butler County, OH).
A graphical summary of the most current ratings is below. The majority is the vertical black line; the current composition of the House is indicated by the red arrow. After the jump, I have the details of each forecast.
The Cook Political Report issued its latest House forecast on October 30.
192 Safe Republican
18 Likely Republican
15 Leans Republican
12 Leans Democratic
14 Likely Democratic
157 Safe Democratic
In a most-likely scenario using the Cook Political ratings, if we add all Safe/Leans/Likely and split the Tossups evenly, the 113th House will be made up of 238.5 Republicans and 196.5 Democrats, a net gain of 3.5 seats for the Democrats. In a Democratic wave election, if all tossups go blue, then it would be 225 R/210 D, a net gain of 17 seats for the Democrats. In a Republican wave election, using the same assumption, the outcome would be 252 R/183 D, a net gain of 10 seats for the Republicans.
Sabato’s latest update removed tossups, so all seats are rated “leans”, “likely”, or “safe”.
194 Safe Republican
21 Likely Republican
22 Leans Republican
31 Leans Democratic
7 Likely Democratic
160 Safe Democratic
In a most-likely scenario using the Sabato Crystal Ball ratings, if we add all Safe/Leans/Likely, the 113th House will be made up of 237 Republicans and 198 Democrats, a net gain of five seats for the Democrats. In a Democratic wave election, if half the “leans Republican” seats go blue, then it would be 226 R/209 D, a net gain of 16 seats for the Democrats. In a Republican wave election, using the same assumption, the outcome would be 252.5 R/182.5 D, a net gain of 10.5 seats for the Republicans.
The New York Times’ ratings have barely changed since this summer. Recall that the New York Times doesn’t rate seats as “Likely”, using just a five-point scale.
New York Times Forecast
196 Safe Republican
32 Leans Republican
25 Leans Democratic
158 Safe Democratic
In the “average” New York Times scenario, then, the House would be made up of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats, a net gain of only two seats. In a Democratic wave, 228 R/207 D (D+18) and in a Republican wave, 252 R/183 D (R+10).
It is hard to imagine any circumstance where the Republicans lose control of the House. The prediction markets agree; Intrade has a Republican hold on the House at 96 percent while Iowa Electronic Markets have the same contract at 86 percent.
Below is a consensus list of races worth watching on November 6. Where available, I’ve hyperlinked to the regional Logarchism article which covers that race. Feel free to offer your own analysis on any of your favorites in the comments section below.
Consensus List of Races Worth Watching
New Hampshire 1
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 3
New York 1
New York 11
New York 18
New York 19
New York 21
New York 24
New York 25
New York 27
North Carolina 7
North Carolina 8
North Carolina 11
North Dakota AL
Rhode Island 1
South Dakota AL
West Virginia 3
Does a slight gain for the Democrats portend even worse gridlock than in the 112th Congress? Or are we due for a Congressional Age of Aquarius, with harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding? Do you agree or disagree with the experts? Do you have a mystic crystal revelation of your own to share?
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