113 th Congress: Veer Slightly Left; It’s the Last One on the Right

Michael has been doing an excel­lent job with the Sen­ate and Reëlec­tion Watches. I’m cer­tainly inter­ested to see how his pre­dic­tion model works on Novem­ber 6.

I have been doing a series of House reports, com­pil­ing the rat­ings from var­i­ous sources and report­ing on them here. A link to my last House report on August 23 is here, if you want to com­pare to past analy­ses. This will be my final update on the experts’ pro­jec­tions for the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives in the 113^th Con­gress, which con­venes Jan­u­ary 3, 2013.

The cur­rent makeup of the House is 242 Repub­li­cans (includ­ing two vacant seats) and 193 Democ­rats (includ­ing two vacant seats). A major­ity is 218 seats. The Speaker of the House, elected by the major­ity party, is John Boehner (R-​​Butler County, OH).

A graph­i­cal sum­mary of the most cur­rent rat­ings is below. The major­ity is the ver­ti­cal black line; the cur­rent com­po­si­tion of the House is indi­cated by the red arrow. After the jump, I have the details of each forecast.

The Cook Polit­i­cal Report issued its lat­est House fore­cast on Octo­ber 30.

Cook’s Fore­cast
192 Safe Repub­li­can
18 Likely Repub­li­can
15 Leans Repub­li­can
27 Tossup
12 Leans Demo­c­ra­tic
14 Likely Demo­c­ra­tic
157 Safe Democratic

In a most-​​likely sce­nario using the Cook Polit­i­cal rat­ings, if we add all Safe/​Leans/​Likely and split the Tossups evenly, the 113^th House will be made up of 238.5 Repub­li­cans and 196.5 Democ­rats, a net gain of 3.5 seats for the Democ­rats. In a Demo­c­ra­tic wave elec­tion, if all tossups go blue, then it would be 225 R/​210 D, a net gain of 17 seats for the Democ­rats. In a Repub­li­can wave elec­tion, using the same assump­tion, the out­come would be 252 R/​183 D, a net gain of 10 seats for the Republicans.

Sabato’s lat­est update removed tossups, so all seats are rated “leans”, “likely”, or “safe”.

Sabato’s Fore­cast
194 Safe Repub­li­can
21 Likely Repub­li­can
22 Leans Repub­li­can
31 Leans Demo­c­ra­tic
7 Likely Demo­c­ra­tic
160 Safe Democratic

In a most-​​likely sce­nario using the Sabato Crys­tal Ball rat­ings, if we add all Safe/​Leans/​Likely, the 113^th House will be made up of 237 Repub­li­cans and 198 Democ­rats, a net gain of five seats for the Democ­rats. In a Demo­c­ra­tic wave elec­tion, if half the “leans Repub­li­can” seats go blue, then it would be 226 R/​209 D, a net gain of 16 seats for the Democ­rats. In a Repub­li­can wave elec­tion, using the same assump­tion, the out­come would be 252.5 R/182.5 D, a net gain of 10.5 seats for the Republicans.

The New York Times’ rat­ings have barely changed since this sum­mer. Recall that the New York Times doesn’t rate seats as “Likely”, using just a five-​​point scale.

New York Times Fore­cast
196 Safe Repub­li­can
32 Leans Repub­li­can
24 Tossup
25 Leans Demo­c­ra­tic
158 Safe Democratic

In the “aver­age” New York Times sce­nario, then, the House would be made up of 240 Repub­li­cans and 195 Democ­rats, a net gain of only two seats. In a Demo­c­ra­tic wave, 228 R/​207 D (D+18) and in a Repub­li­can wave, 252 R/​183 D (R+10).

It is hard to imag­ine any cir­cum­stance where the Repub­li­cans lose con­trol of the House. The pre­dic­tion mar­kets agree; Intrade has a Repub­li­can hold on the House at 96 per­cent while Iowa Elec­tronic Mar­kets have the same con­tract at 86 percent.

Below is a con­sen­sus list of races worth watch­ing on Novem­ber 6. Where avail­able, I’ve hyper­linked to the regional Log­a­rchism arti­cle which cov­ers that race. Feel free to offer your own analy­sis on any of your favorites in the com­ments sec­tion below.

Con­sen­sus List of Races Worth Watching

Ari­zona 1
Ari­zona 2
Ari­zona 9
Cal­i­for­nia 7
Cal­i­for­nia 9
Cal­i­for­nia 10
Cal­i­for­nia 21
Cal­i­for­nia 24
Cal­i­for­nia 26
Cal­i­for­nia 36
Cal­i­for­nia 41
Cal­i­for­nia 47
Cal­i­for­nia 52
Col­orado 3
Col­orado 6
Col­orado 7
Con­necti­cut 5
Florida 2
Florida 10
Florida 16
Florida 18
Florida 22
Florida 26
Geor­gia 12
Iowa 1
Iowa 2
Iowa 3
Iowa 4
Illi­nois 8
Illi­nois 10
Illi­nois 11
Illi­nois 12
Illi­nois 13
Illi­nois 17
Indi­ana 2
Indi­ana 8
Ken­tucky 6
Mass­a­chu­setts 6
Mary­land 6
Michi­gan 1
Michi­gan 3
Michi­gan 11
Min­nesota 2
Min­nesota 6
Min­nesota 8
Mon­tana AL
Nevada 3
Nevada 4
New Hamp­shire 1
New Hamp­shire 2
New Jer­sey 3
New York 1
New York 11
New York 18
New York 19
New York 21
New York 24
New York 25
New York 27
North Car­olina 7
North Car­olina 8
North Car­olina 11
North Dakota AL
Ohio 6
Ohio 16
Okla­homa 2
Penn­syl­va­nia 6
Penn­syl­va­nia 8
Penn­syl­va­nia 12
Rhode Island 1
South Dakota AL
Ten­nessee 4
Texas 14
Texas 23
Utah 4
Vir­ginia 2
Wash­ing­ton 1
Wis­con­sin 7
Wis­con­sin 8
West Vir­ginia 3

Does a slight gain for the Democ­rats por­tend even worse grid­lock than in the 112^th Con­gress? Or are we due for a Con­gres­sional Age of Aquar­ius, with har­mony and under­stand­ing, sym­pa­thy and trust abound­ing? Do you agree or dis­agree with the experts? Do you have a mys­tic crys­tal rev­e­la­tion of your own to share?

Related arti­cles

• Repub­li­cans in Strong Posi­tion to Keep U.S. House Control
• Dems bor­row $17M for House push
• Why Democ­rats prob­a­bly won’t take back the House
• GOP hold on House looks secure, but there’s still drama