With this week’s battle over gun control legislation in the Senate, I thought it worthwhile to examine it from a qualitative and quantitative perspective. A total of 46 Senators voted against cloture on the Manchin-Toomey background check proposal, thus killing it without requiring anyone to actually speak on the floor of the Senate. This is exactly what many people expected to happen, and why there were calls early in the year to require filibusterers to speak on the Senate floor to prevent votes on bills.
I wrote this before Nate Silver’s statistical analysis was published yesterday.
In any case, the 46 Senators consisted of 41 Republicans and five Democrats. Let’s start by looking at the four Democrats. (more…)
It’s 19 months to election day. So why on earth am I writing a Senate Watch now? In part because we’re already hearing news of Senators retiring at the end of their terms. There’s more to look at, but that will wait for upcoming articles. Thus far, five Senators have announced that they will not be seeking reëlection next year. Those five are:
- Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
- Tom Harkin (D-IA)
- Mike Johanns (R-NE)
- Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
- Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
And there’s a sixth wildcard seat, arising from Senator John Kerry (D-MA) moving to replace Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. What do those six seats’ prospects look like? Let’s take a look. (more…)
Wait, what? Didn’t we just have our election a mere week ago? Why on earth am I running another Senate Watch?
It’s simple, really. This year’s Senate election gives us a feel for the Senate makeup of the first half of President Obama’s second term. But we have enough information to be able to look ahead and see what this means two years from now. Today, then, I am talking about the importance of the 2012 Senate races with respect to setting the table for 2014, and the future of the filibuster. (more…)
The dust is finally settling from the election. And I’ll be talking more later about some of the ramifications. Today, though, I’m interested in some navel gazing. There are many lessons to be learned from this election, by many parties.
I’ll cover some high-level views today, but next week I’m going to delve into some of the bigger topics from the White House and Senate perspective.
And, with that, here are some lessons. (more…)
Time’s up! Pencils down! Now the ballots get turned in and counted. This is the article in which we can do our play by play watch as the results come trickling, and then flooding, in.
Here’s a handy list of what to be watching for, and the times to start watching for them. (more…)
Here we are, at the end of the road for so many campaigns. And it’s the time when I deliver my final predictions.
As with Saturday, I’m starting with early voting. Like Saturday, this edition includes a section on the gubernatorial races. After that, I delve into the Senate, followed by the Presidential race. I’m dropping the other external factors, as they should all be priced into the polls by now.
That said, Hurricane Sandy could have an impact on turnout. But with no precedent upon which to draw, it’s anybody’s guess as to what the impact will be.