Posts tagged Dean Heller
Today there are two special elections to replace Congressional vacancies, one in Nevada and the other in New York. Polls close in New York at 9PM EDT (6PM PDT) and in Nevada at 10PM EDT (7PM PDT).
Nevada Congressional District 2 (Carson City)
This, naturally, left a vacancy that needs to be filled. Today is the election to fill that seat.
The candidates are:
- Mark Amodei, State Republican Party Chairman
- Kate Marshall, Nevada State Treasurer
NV2 covers most of the state, is very rural, and has never elected a Democrat for Representative. The only time a Democrat got close was 1992, when there was a 4.5-point spread between the two candidates. Otherwise, this district has been reliably double-digit Republican territory. There is no reason to expect today’s election to be any different.
New York Congressional District 9 (Brooklyn, Queens)
This is the race everyone’s looking at. Representative Anthony Weiner resigned the seat in June, after a scandal involving him sending questionable photos of himself to people online.
The leading candidates in this race are:
- Bob Turner, former CEO of Multimedia Entertainment
- David Weprin, New York Assembly member
The district leans Democrat, though not as heavily as the surrounding districts; its Cook PVI is D+5. The latest polls point to a Turner victory. That said, the last time NY9 sent a Republican to Washington was during the Hoover administration.
This special election is complicated somewhat by the expectation that it will disappear as part of the redistricting resulting from lost population in New York. If Turner wins, the Democratic-led state legislature will almost certainly choose this seat to be among those eliminated.
For this reason, there weren’t any heavy hitters coming from the left side of the aisle in this election.
This election has been described by many as a bellwether for the 2012 elections. As a rule, the degree to which these special elections serve as crystal balls for upcoming general elections is significantly overstated. Special elections tend to have atypical turnout profiles, which don’t translate well to general elections — especially Presidential elections. Furthermore, political winds change significantly over the course of a year. Remember the immediate aftermath of Operation Desert Storm, when President George H. W. Bush was guaranteed reëlection?
The bottom line here is that today’s elections, while interesting, are not very meaningful beyond their impact on the makeup of the 112th Congress.
- Race to Replace Anthony Weiner Update: Poll Finds Republican Leading by 6 Points (michellemalkin.com)
- Early voting begins in Nevada special election (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- Down the Stretch in the Race to Replace Weiner (cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Bellwether for 2012: GOP May Win Weiner’s Seat in NY (fellowshipofminds.wordpress.com)