Posts tagged demographic transition
For ye have the poor always with you; but me ye have not always.
— Matthew 26:11 (KJV)
In last week’s set of comments, a regular commenter observed:
Since blacks married themselves to the Democratic Party 50 years ago, the black family has been in steady decline.
He was asked:
Are you suggesting a causal relationship here?
Yes I am. Since Lyndon Johnson and the Great Society started giving money to black mothers who had babies out of wedlock, there became a disincentive for black men to marry black women and have children in wedlock. We then started moving blacks into the ghettos and taught them to become dependent on government. Then if any Republican ever suggests cutting back on welfare, there’s a backlash from those receiving government assistance and Republicans are accused of being selfish and not caring about people and being racists.
[Note: I corrected miswordings and misspellings, and simplified the above exchange.]
So what is the evidence for a causal relationship between government assistance and poverty, children born out of wedlock and multiple children born to fatherless families?
Let’s stipulate that the correlation exists. I’m not sure I accept the correlation outlined above, but it will become impossible to discuss if we don’t start somewhere. Remember that “[c]orrelation does not imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing ‘look over there’.” (more…)