Posts tagged Florida
Editor’s note: This is another article from dawolf, who had previously analyzed some polling data from Gravis Marketing. As always, we encourage our readers to contribute articles to Logarchism.
On the October 14, I examined a poll of Gravis Marketing and found some dubious numbers in the crosstabs. Doug Kaplan, CEO of Gravis Marketing, has stated that demographic adjustments account for these anomalous results, and that demographic adjustments are being continuously adjusted and may vary between weeks.
Unfortunately, Kaplan has declined to provide any raw numbers or weightings so it is not possible to verify his claim. But we can have a look at what Gravis polls of Florida actually say, and if there is evidence of demographic weighting. It should be noted that the poll examined does not contain the words “Demographic” or “Weighting” or indeed any mention of any such adjustment. However, the most recent poll of Florida (posted since the earlier article) does mention this.
The basic concept of demographic weighting is that a typical sample might have too many respondents in one category, and not enough in another category. For example, maybe you estimate that Hispanics will form ten percent of your final voters: but in a poll of 1,000 people, only 50 Hispanics were polled. One way of adjusting for this is to weight the Hispanic respondents to ten percent in your final results. (more…)
This is Ballot Watch. Today is the 15th (and last) in the series of articles on the upcoming ballot initiatives and some key local elections. Some of these covered topics in common with multiple states, but the remainder looked at a state level. With this second part of our two-part article on the South, our series closes.
Of the ten states in this region, the only competitive states for Democratic Presidential candidates are Florida (29 electoral votes, with a state Partisan Voting Index of R+2) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes, with a state PVI of R+4), the subjects of today’s article. Both went for Obama in 2008. Florida and North Carolina also have one Democratic Senator each (Kay Hagen in North Carolina, Bill Nelson in Florida). Florida’s governor is Republican Rick Scott, and North Carolina’s retiring governor is Democrat Bev Perdue. Her seat is up for election next month. She declined to run this year in the face of mounting criticism; she has a disapproval rating of 59 percent, the highest for any governor.
Florida’s Republican Governor Rick Scott is also unpopular, with 38 percent approving of his job performance vs 48 percent disapproving. DC has given us a rundown on Scott’s effort to purge voter rolls: Scott said he expected to remove registration for 2,600 illegal immigrant voters. In the event, the Governor was only 92 percent wrong. The real number was 206, or 0.00184 percent of the 11.2 million registrants. Ironically, or perhaps predictably, while Florida Republican leaders beat the bushes looking for fraudulent voter registration, they’re embroiled in their own voter fraud scandal. It might backfire on them in the general election.
In contrast with the states of the Deep South, which have exactly one House seat in play (Georgia’s 12th, currently held by the only white Southern Democrat), Florida has eight of 27, and North Carolina five of 13, seats in play. Those are listed under the individual states after the jump, along with any important ballot initiatives and North Carolina’s gubernatorial election.
In the face of scares about “voter fraud” leading to restrictive voter ID laws, a bombshell exploded days ago when it was revealed that the company hired by the Republican National Committee to run voter registration drives in vital swing states has been submitting fraudulent registration forms.
It’s worth looking at the background and context of what happened, the details of what is happening, and the possibilities for what might happen. We’ve seen this tale before, but past is not prologue. It will turn out differently this time. Perhaps this is what it looks like when a whole national political party shoots itself in its collective foot. (more…)
This is Ballot Watch. Today is the fourth in the series of articles on the upcoming ballot initiatives and some key local elections. Some of these will cover topics in common with multiple states, while others will look at a state level.
Pundits used to say that President Obama would not (or, sometimes they claimed, “could not”) run for reëlection on his record as President. They specifically claimed he could not (or would not) run on his greatest singular legislative accomplishment, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. Of course, most of these pundits also claimed this election would be a “referendum” on the President’s first term, not so much a “choice election” where the public was presented with an option between visions for the future.
Confounding these particular pundits, President Obama is, in fact, running on his record, and is pressing the case for Obamacare. Even Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan has presented the upcoming election as a “choice” (“You are entitled to the clearest possible choice, because the time for choosing is drawing near…”). The Democratic defense on these issues is having an effect. Just this last Sunday, Mitt Romney had to admit there were many things he “liked” in health care reform, after having repeatedly promised to “repeal” it, on “day one.”
A number of states, apparently in an effort to affect the vote this November, have ballot initiatives dealing with Obamacare. What will be the effect of these measures on the upcoming election? What practical effect might they have on the future of health care reform in America? (more…)
A little over a week ago, I wrote about Florida’s importance in the upcoming election, and the efforts of the Republican governor there to disenfranchise Floridians who are likely to vote Democratic. There have been further developments in the story.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed a lawsuit in an effort to block Governor Rick Scott’s attempt to purge minorities from the voter rolls. In response, Governor Scott announced his intent to sue the Department of Homeland Security to gain access to a database he says will assist his efforts.
Governor Scott’s controversial program is intended, he says, to ensure that non-citizens in Florida don’t vote. The state is matching information on driver’s licenses (which often includes citizenship status) against lists of registered voters. Over 2,600 letters were sent — 87 percent to African-Americans and Hispanics — informing selected voters that they would be dropped from the voting rolls unless they could prove their citizenship within thirty days. Many of the people indicated as non-citizens on their licenses have since become citizens, and simply not altered their records. In Miami-Dade County, forty of those receiving notice have been shown to be non-citizens. More than five hundred have already supplied proof of citizenship, providing (so far) more than a ten-to-one ratio of false positives. (more…)
Yesterday, Michael Weiss reported on the current balance of the Electoral College as part of his Election Watch series. Looking at his data, it’s clear that Florida may be an important factor in the upcoming Presidential election, as it was in 2000’s Bush-Gore contest.
This may explain the extraordinary measures which the current Republican governor of the state is following to determine who will be able to vote. It also explains the interest that various minority rights groups have in keeping that effort honest. (more…)