Posts tagged Intrade
Intrade had a lot of trading markets. You could place a bet on whether Marco Rubio would be elected President in 2016. You could bet on the feasibility of cold fusion. You could bet on who would win a Grammy.
The one contract that Intrade never carried: “Intrade will close abruptly on Sunday, March 10.” Too bad, because someone could have made a mint on that one.
It is unclear whether Intrade will ever come back. Most experts say it’s unlikely.
After the jump, you’ll see what you get when you type “Intrade.com” into your browser. (more…)
Many political scientists and pollsters have focused on the President’s “coattails” when trying to predict the outcome of Congressional elections. It’s common to find pundits claiming that the President’s relatively low job approval ratings, and the relatively poor state of the economy, bode poorly for Congressional Democrats in this election cycle.
For example, on Intrade, Republicans are given a 78% chance to continue their control of the House, while Democrats are given only a 25% chance to continue their control of the Senate, almost a mirror-image result. That is, Intraders give 5:3 odds that the Republicans will have control of both houses of Congress after the 2012 elections.
The story is similar over at the smaller Iowa Electronic Markets, where the Republican control of both House and Senate in the 113th Congress is given a 60 percent chance of occurring.
I want to present the case for a somewhat counter-intuitive result: that control of both the House and the Senate are likely to flip in the upcoming election cycle, but for somewhat different reasons. (more…)
Once a month, we give a rundown of the Republican field for the 2012 Presidential nomination.
Texas Governor Rick Perry and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are still on the sidelines, looking at the game. They both have been making noises for two months with no significant movement.
Last month, there were 11 candidates judged by Intrade to have better than a 1% at the nomination. This month, there are nine, and only five of those have declared; the other four (Perry, Giuliani, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin) have not. My best guess is that there is one Republican candidate who has not yet declared that we will see in the early primaries next year; what I can’t predict is which one of the four listed here will be “it”.
I’ve gathered Real Clear Politics aggregated poll averages and July 20 Intrade probabilities for each candidate, rounded to the nearest whole number.
I’ll list the potential Republican candidates after the jump, in order of their Intrade percentages, from highest to lowest. In each case, the polling numbers are given in parentheses after the candidate’s name, rounded to the nearest whole number, followed by the change from last month: