Posts tagged Iowa
This is Ballot Watch. Today is the 12th in the series of articles on the upcoming ballot initiatives and some key local elections. Some of these covered topics in common with multiple states, but the remainder look at a state level.
This is the middle of the country. Most of this territory is deeply Republican, though Iowa and Missouri are more closely balanced. Of these six states, Kansas and Nebraska have nothing of particular interest going on in November. The other four are described below the fold, with significant help from a couple of our regular commenters.
The Iowa caucuses are over. Turnout was roughly comparable to four years ago, so there doesn’t seem to be any particular enthusiasm surge over 2008. That was a big year for the Iowa caucuses, but it still led to massive Republican defeat nationally the following November.
The latest polls going into the caucuses had been showing a virtual tie between Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The polls were, for once, pretty accurate.
What do the scores mean for the candidates left in the running? What do they mean for the rest of the primaries and for the general election next November? (more…)
A few days ago, in “A Snowball’s Chance in Iowa”, I said that if Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) were leading in the Iowa polls, then I’d be most inclined to believe he had a real chance of winning, especially compared to then-poll-leader, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. It now looks like the polling has finally caught up with my impressions of the actual situation on the ground. (more…)
Every election year, as caucus day approaches, the focus on Iowa intensifies. Eyes around the nation pop at every blip in the poll numbers as analysts vie to be the first to declare the rise or fall of each candidate. Everyone is now gaga over Newt Gingrich, who has an apparent double-digit lead in the polls. Nate Silver at The New York Times has posted an analysis of how often Iowa polling predicts a caucus victory, but I’m not so sure that Gingrich’s lead will hold through January 3rd. As a resident of Iowa, I don’t think Gingrich has done enough to motivate voters to go to the caucuses for him.
Gingrich has barely visited the state beyond the almost mandatory debates and forums that bring all of the candidates to the corn fields. I haven’t seen any Gingrich ads yet. I haven’t gotten any phone calls or mailers from his campaign. I’m not even sure he has an Iowa office, and certainly not here in one of the most politically active counties in the state.
So, who will win in Iowa? Let’s break these campaign activities down to see where we stand: (more…)
What? Another one?
Yes, but this one’s more meaningful than the last few. It’s the first in Iowa since the Ames Straw Poll. It’s the first actual debate since Herman Cain dropped out of the race. And it’s the first during which Newt Gingrich is a clear favorite.
This debate is being held at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, and televised on ABC. As with many of the debates, this one will be streamed online. Unlike the past debates, this one is being held at 9:00PM EST (6:00PM PST).
So what’s the latest score? (more…)
Yesterday I provided an illustration of how one’s strategic moves can appear to be counterproductive, but yet turn out to be rational gambles with advantageous odds. This week, Florida is weighing a similar sort of decision.
Per the Republican Party Primary Election rules, only four states are permitted have their delegate selection process (caucus or primary election) prior to March 1, 2012 (and must have them in February): Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. States who award their delegates proportionally are permitted to have their selection process in March, while winner-take-all states must wait until April. All states who violate these rules are penalized by having half their delegates disqualified.
Thus far, Colorado and Arizona have scheduled their elections on February 7th and 28th, respectively, in violation of the rules. Michigan is expected to also violate the rules, and hold elections on February 28th.
Florida, in a fit of chutzpah, is considering holding its primary elections on January 31st, ahead of even Iowa’s February 6th caucuses. And South Carolina (traditionally the “first in the South” primary), in a game of one-upmanship, has promised to have its primary election in advance of Florida’s, regardless of Florida’s chosen date.
Why on earth are these states willing to give up half of their delegates? (more…)