Posts tagged Iowa

Ballot Watch: Plains States

47
7 months ago
by Michael Weiss in

This is Bal­lot Watch. Today is the 12th in the series of arti­cles on the upcom­ing bal­lot ini­tia­tives and some key local elec­tions. Some of these cov­ered top­ics in com­mon with mul­ti­ple states, but the remain­der look at a state level.

This is the mid­dle of the coun­try. Most of this ter­ri­tory is deeply Repub­li­can, though Iowa and Mis­souri are more closely bal­anced. Of these six states, Kansas and Nebraska have noth­ing of par­tic­u­lar inter­est going on in Novem­ber. The other four are described below the fold, with sig­nif­i­cant help from a cou­ple of our reg­u­lar com­menters.
(more…)

Last Jenga Standing

71
1 year ago
by dcpetterson in , ,

They’re Num­ber One!

The Iowa cau­cuses are over. Turnout was roughly com­pa­ra­ble to four years ago, so there doesn’t seem to be any par­tic­u­lar enthu­si­asm surge over 2008. That was a big year for the Iowa cau­cuses, but it still led to mas­sive Repub­li­can defeat nation­ally the fol­low­ing November.

The lat­est polls going into the cau­cuses had been show­ing a vir­tual tie between Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX), for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA), and for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney. The polls were, for once, pretty accurate.

What do the scores mean for the can­di­dates left in the run­ning? What do they mean for the rest of the pri­maries and for the gen­eral elec­tion next Novem­ber? (more…)

Snowball’s Chances Getting Warmer

6
1 year ago
by mclever in

I know why this man is smiling.

A few days ago, in “A Snowball’s Chance in Iowa”, I said that if Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) were lead­ing in the Iowa polls, then I’d be most inclined to believe he had a real chance of win­ning, espe­cially com­pared to then-​​poll-​​leader, for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich. It now looks like the polling has finally caught up with my impres­sions of the actual sit­u­a­tion on the ground. (more…)

A Snowball’s Chance in Iowa

37
1 year ago
by mclever in

Every elec­tion year, as cau­cus day approaches, the focus on Iowa inten­si­fies. Eyes around the nation pop at every blip in the poll num­bers as ana­lysts vie to be the first to declare the rise or fall of each can­di­date. Every­one is now gaga over Newt Gin­grich, who has an appar­ent double-​​digit lead in the polls. Nate Sil­ver at The New York Times has posted an analy­sis of how often Iowa polling pre­dicts a cau­cus vic­tory, but I’m not so sure that Gingrich’s lead will hold through Jan­u­ary 3rd. As a res­i­dent of Iowa, I don’t think Gin­grich has done enough to moti­vate vot­ers to go to the cau­cuses for him.

Gin­grich has barely vis­ited the state beyond the almost manda­tory debates and forums that bring all of the can­di­dates to the corn fields. I haven’t seen any Gin­grich ads yet. I haven’t got­ten any phone calls or mail­ers from his cam­paign. I’m not even sure he has an Iowa office, and cer­tainly not here in one of the most polit­i­cally active coun­ties in the state.

So, who will win in Iowa? Let’s break these cam­paign activ­i­ties down to see where we stand: (more…)

Republican Debate December 10

27
1 year ago
by Logarchism.com in

What? Another one?

Yes, but this one’s more mean­ing­ful than the last few. It’s the first in Iowa since the Ames Straw Poll. It’s the first actual debate since Her­man Cain dropped out of the race. And it’s the first dur­ing which Newt Gin­grich is a clear favorite.

This debate is being held at Drake Uni­ver­sity in Des Moines, Iowa, and tele­vised on ABC. As with many of the debates, this one will be streamed online. Unlike the past debates, this one is being held at 9:00PM EST (6:00PM PST).

So what’s the lat­est score? (more…)

The Primary Primary Gamble

12
1 year ago
by Michael Weiss in

Yes­ter­day I pro­vided an illus­tra­tion of how one’s strate­gic moves can appear to be coun­ter­pro­duc­tive, but yet turn out to be ratio­nal gam­bles with advan­ta­geous odds. This week, Florida is weigh­ing a sim­i­lar sort of deci­sion.

Per the Repub­li­can Party Pri­mary Elec­tion rules, only four states are per­mit­ted have their del­e­gate selec­tion process (cau­cus or pri­mary elec­tion) prior to March 1, 2012 (and must have them in Feb­ru­ary): Iowa, New Hamp­shire, South Car­olina, and Nevada. States who award their del­e­gates pro­por­tion­ally are per­mit­ted to have their selec­tion process in March, while winner-​​take-​​all states must wait until April. All states who vio­late these rules are penal­ized by hav­ing half their del­e­gates disqualified.

Thus far, Col­orado and Ari­zona have sched­uled their elec­tions on Feb­ru­ary 7th and 28th, respec­tively, in vio­la­tion of the rules. Michi­gan is expected to also vio­late the rules, and hold elec­tions on Feb­ru­ary 28th.

Florida, in a fit of chutz­pah, is con­sid­er­ing hold­ing its pri­mary elec­tions on Jan­u­ary 31st, ahead of even Iowa’s Feb­ru­ary 6th cau­cuses. And South Car­olina (tra­di­tion­ally the “first in the South” pri­mary), in a game of one-​​upmanship, has promised to have its pri­mary elec­tion in advance of Florida’s, regard­less of Florida’s cho­sen date.

Why on earth are these states will­ing to give up half of their del­e­gates? (more…)

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