Posts tagged Mitch Daniels
Talk show day is upon us again. This week is the first in a while without an overarching theme, now that the national debt isn’t daily conversation, and Ames is behind us. Interestingly, Texas Governor Rick Perry is nowhere to be found, a mere week after announcing his entry to the race. According to Politico, here’s the lineup for this week:
Meet the Press (NBC) — Obama Administration former Press Secretary Robert Gibbs; Indiana’s Republican Governor and non-Presidential-candidate Mitch Daniels.
This Week (ABC) — Obama campaign adviser and top political strategist David Axelrod, followed by former Utah Governor and former Obama Administration ambassador to China—and current Presidential candidate—Jon Huntsman.
Face the Nation (CBS) — Former Presidential candidate and current Arizona Senator John McCain; former Republican National Chairman Ed Gillespie; former Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe.
State of the Union (CNN) — Axelrod appears here as well, along with Maryland Governor and chairman of the Democratic Governors Association Martin O’Malley; also the chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (rumored to be a potential pick for Vice President); also Democratic Representative Elijah Cummings, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, expected to talk about President Obama’s relationship with black leaders.
Fox News Sunday — It’s “former” week on Fox: political strategist and former White House deputy chief of staff for the Bush Administration Karl Rove; former White House deputy press secretary for President Obama, Bill Burton; and Presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.
Newsmakers (CSPAN) — Obama Administration Education Secretary Arne Duncan is interviewed by Alyson Klein from Education Week and USA Today’s Greg Toppo.
Political Capital (Bloomberg TV) — Duncan appears here, too.
Periodically, we’ll give a quick rundown of the Republican field for the 2012 Presidential nomination.
This week saw two prospective candidates—former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Short-Fingered Vulgarian Donald Trump—decline to run. They join Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour in the dustbin of Republican primary history.
The most recent reliable poll was done by Public Policy Polling (PPP) and released May 11. In head-to-head matchups, President Obama outpaced all potential Republican rivals by margins ranging from +5% (Obama minus Romney) to +18% (Obama minus Trump). President Obama’s polling “floor” (that is, those people who say they would vote for Pauly the Platypus over Obama) is probably about 33% based on these polling data; even against the weakest candidates in the Republican field, President Obama cannot get much higher than support in the mid-50s.
Additionally, Nate Silver published a comprehensive rundown on his New York Times blog. At the time he crunched the polling numbers, both Huckabee and Trump were still in the race. I’ve adjusted his numbers by distributing the Huckabee, Trump and “other” voters over the field of 11 most likely candidates. Those are marked “NS” below, with the additional designator depending on which model is used: NSC for the “classical” model, and NSA for the “aggressive” model. I’ve rounded to the nearest whole number.
I’ve also gathered Wednesday May 18 Intrade probabilities for each candidate, rounded to the nearest whole number.
I’ll list the potential Republican candidates after the jump, in order of their Intrade percentages, from highest to lowest. In each case, the polling numbers are given in parentheses after the candidate’s name:
- PPP = the May 11 PPP poll
- TPM = Talking Points Memo estimated polling averages
- RCP = the most recent available Real Clear Politics aggregated polling data.
- NSC = Nate Silver’s “classical” model
- NSA = Nate Silver’s “aggressive” model
- In = Intrade Wednesday May 18
CPAC Straw Poll results are out
Ron Paul – 30%
Mitt Romney – 23%
Gary Johnson – 6%
Chris Christie – 6%
Newt Gingrich – 5%
Tim Pawlenty – 4%
Michele Bachmann – 4%
Mitch Daniels – 4%
Sarah Palin – 3%
Herman Cain – 2%
Mike Huckabee – 2%
Rick Santorum – 2%
John Thune – 2%
Jon Huntsman – 1%
Haley Barbour – 1%
I will not (at this time) be able to move comments from one post to another, so please indulge me while I copy and paste them. I will identify the author, but they’ll appear under my name for the time being.
- Ron Paul Wins CPAC Straw Poll, Again (newser.com)
- Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll (boston.com)
- For the second year in a row the CPAC Straw Poll gives the Presidency-hope to Ron Paul… (underthelobsterscope.wordpress.com)
- CPAC Straw Poll 2011: Ron Paul Wins For Second Consecutive Year (huffingtonpost.com)
- Ron Paul Takes CPAC Straw Poll for Second Year — DBKP - Death By 1000 Papercuts (news.google.com)
- Rep. Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll (nowpublic.com)
- Paul Wins CPAC Straw Poll Again, Romney 2nd (biggovernment.com)
- Chaos erupts as Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll (salon.com)
- Sarah Palin is the most popular of Republican candidates for President, among Republicans polled.
- Less-educated are more Palin-prone; more-educated people would rather have Romney.
- Palin is the runaway favorite of evangelicals.
- And yet, she would likely lose to Obama, unlike some other Republican candidates.
- Republicans would vote for pretty much anyone as long as it’s not Obama.
- Democrats would far prefer to keep Obama than to have another Democratic candidate for President in 2012.
- Self-described moderates far prefer Obama to Palin.
- Who are Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and Haley Barbour? Most of those polled have no idea who these people are. Not a surprise.
- Republicans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and Democrats have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. And each has unfavorable views of the other.
- The more educated people are, the less they like either party.
- Republicans like the Tea Party, Democrat’s don’t, and Independents are split.
- Only 25% of Republicans consider themselves to be Teapers. 13% of Democrats do as well. Those numbers have been relatively steady since the spring.
Those are my observations. What are yours?
It all happened so fast, didn’t it? One day the Republican party was a sober group of guys in suits and ties, wearing polished wingtips and tasteful toupees. Now…it seems like practically overnight…those guys (now known as “the Establishment’) are flanked by another group consisting of seventeen guys in a clown car, wearing fright wigs, floppy shoes and polka dot pants, playing kazoos and spraying seltzer on the voters. This group is called the “Tea Party.”
I’ve been so mesmerized by this startling evolution, I’ve failed until now to think what it portends for the future. In the immediate future, of course, these disparate groups have to contend an election together, which is going to be fascinating enough. But immediately after that, they need to start mounting a presidential run and think about fielding a candidate.
Which side will produce that candidate, do you think? Just ponder it for a moment. After a campaign filled with bright shiny objects like professional wrestling, threats of gunfire, dark warnings about masturbation, the great UN bicycle takeover, a bearded Ivy-leaguer who wrestles grizzly bears barehanded, and Rand Paul’s really weird perm… are Republican voters going to have any interest in a bland, safe Tim Pawlenty, a clean-cut Mitch Daniels or a slicked-back Mitt Romney with his doleful talk about deficits and incentives? Aren’t they just going to crave more sex, drugs and rock’n’roll? Those things are all kind of addictive, you know. (Well, maybe not sex. Sorry Ms O’Donnell, I spoke without thinking. I will try to control myself in future.
No, after this colorful, rowdy, rollicking campaign, I think the die is cast for the presidential run.. The GOP will not come from the boardroom set. It will come from the clown car.
And who is the Chief of Clowns? Who is, in fact, the driver of the clown car? Could it be… will it possibly turn out to be…
Yes, I’m really beginning to think it’s going to happen. The Dem’s fondest wet dream (oops, memo to self…check with Ms O’Donnell to find out if erotic dreams are also forbidden…the left’s fondest fantasy is turning into a reality. We are going to get our dream candidate.
Be still my heart!