Posts tagged Nate Silver
On Thursday, Cook Political Report released their Partisan Voter Index for the 2014 election. It’s a subscriber-only product, so you can either read some of the highlights below or buy a copy.
In the full press release/analysis by David Wasserman, which is well worth reading, he explains how the age-old “is it natural forces or an unnatural gerrymander?”, chicken-egg, nature-nurture question might be answered. Simply put, with all three koans in the fountain, the answer to each is, “both”. They co-evolved. (more…)
Intrade had a lot of trading markets. You could place a bet on whether Marco Rubio would be elected President in 2016. You could bet on the feasibility of cold fusion. You could bet on who would win a Grammy.
The one contract that Intrade never carried: “Intrade will close abruptly on Sunday, March 10.” Too bad, because someone could have made a mint on that one.
It is unclear whether Intrade will ever come back. Most experts say it’s unlikely.
After the jump, you’ll see what you get when you type “Intrade.com” into your browser. (more…)
The year 2012 was a big one for scientific advancements. So big, in fact, that Michael and DC have already touched upon science (including statistics and mathematics) in their year-end reviews.
After years of being excluded from political decisions, science resurged into the public policy arena this year. It seems a tipping point has been reached:
- The Big Bang Theory is the highest-rated series show on American television.
- Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise (researched by Arikia Millikan) was released, to wide acclaim. (And just to bring things full circle, most Logarchism readers and commenters met on Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com blog; Monotreme has been called by one of his students “Sheldon [Cooper], but with a personality” and is one of the FiveThirtyEight faithful; and Millikan is the descendant of Robert Millikan of the famous oil drop experiment which marked the beginning of the early 20th century explosion in physical chemistry.) Nate, like Sheldon, is now the toast of the town in all his geeky glory.
- Even conservatives are willing to grudgingly acknowledge anthropogenic global warming. David Frum and Matt Yglesias are even advocating for a carbon tax.
Among the other top stories in science and medicine in 2012:
The dust is finally settling from the election. And I’ll be talking more later about some of the ramifications. Today, though, I’m interested in some navel gazing. There are many lessons to be learned from this election, by many parties.
I’ll cover some high-level views today, but next week I’m going to delve into some of the bigger topics from the White House and Senate perspective.
And, with that, here are some lessons. (more…)
Editor’s Note: This article was submitted by dawolf, one of our regular readers and commenters. We always welcome your contributions.
Another Editor’s Note: I have published an update on this.
Much has been written of late regarding whether polls need to be “unskewed” due to incorrect Democratic/Republican registration. But what if there are results being made up simply out of whole cloth?
One pollster that arrived on the scene recently is Gravis Marketing who has shown a strong Republican house bias this cycle. A recent investigation of Gravis by Democratic Underground made it clear that there were questions surrounding the company.
This is not the first time that a pollster has been accused of publishing “poll results” that do not correspond to actual polled individuals. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight made such an accusation of the now-defunct Research 2000 on June 29, 2010.
However, questions such as those raised by Democratic Underground are not evidence of guilt. So is there any real evidence that the work they are committing is fraudulent?
Here is a recent poll they claim to have conducted is currently available, with crosstabs. The executive summary states
On September 29th – 30th, 2012, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 914 likely voters in the state of Florida regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate, senate candidate, and other social and economic issues important to voters.
Nine hundred fourteen likely voters. This number is key. (more…)
Texas Governor Rick Perry is apparently considering a run for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination.
The speculation regarding the Perry campaign was fueled, in large part, by the implosion of the Newt Gingrich campaign on June 9. The advisers who left suddenly all had close ties to Gov. Perry. At this writing, he is in second place on Intrade with 16% probability of garnering the nomination, according to traders. On the graph, you can see the “bump” in Perry’s numbers on June 10: both the price of a Perry contract (line) and the trading volume (green bars) spiked after the defections from Gingrich’s campaign.
Nate Silver has written favorable blog posts assessing Perry’s chances on May 18, June 9, June 14, (and, just in case you missed his point, June 15). Silver’s assessment is that Perry is a strong contender for the nomination, and has put Perry in his “top tier” of candidates with a 1-in-8 chance of winning the nomination.
Who is Rick Perry? (more…)