Posts tagged Republican National Convention
The news cycle was dominated by Hurricane Isaac and the Republican National Convention. Writers and reporters put away the word “presumptive” for another four years; Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are now officially nominees. Next week, the Democrats get their turn, but it probably won’t involve Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair, a performance that Arizona Governor Jan Brewer thought was “absolutely terrific”.
Politico asks six questions about the Romney acceptance speech:
- Does he pass the get-it test?
- Does he make a coherent case for his candidacy?
- Would you want to share a caffeine-free Diet Coke with that guy?
- Can he make his résumé relevant?
- Does he get the details right?
- Do listeners cringe?
- Does he surprise us?
The Labor Day weekend is upon us. Answer these questions, or any others that suit your fancy, or pose questions of your own. Or even — gasp — something not about the upcoming elections!What’s on your mind?
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We create a new Open Mic every week to give a clean slate, but feel free to add to this topic at any time.
In an effort to mask their fiscal irresponsibility (or perhaps to highlight it), the Republican National Convention has, not one, but two “debt clocks” on display. One of them shows the current national debt, ticking ever upward. The other shows the amount of debt incurred since the time the Convention was first gavelled to order on Monday afternoon.
Of course, neither of these “clocks” are accurate (nor are they “clocks”, since they don’t tell time). They don’t show the actual expenditure of dollars (i.e., when some agency of the federal government cuts a check, when the Pentagon awards a contract, when oil companies get a kickback, none of this causes these “clocks” to tick up). They only show a sort of average per-second amount calculated by taking the year’s projected deficit and dividing it by something like 31,536,000 (the number of seconds in a 365-day year; but this is a leap year, so perhaps they used 31,622,400).
Highlighting the deficit and the debt is, one might think, a dangerous thing for Republicans to do, since the debt is almost entirely due to the actions of Republican administrations. (more…)
Pauly the Platypus has not posted an article on Logarchism in a long, long time. It hasn’t been a platypus’s age, but close. This week, Logarchism’s moderators sent Pauly down to Tampa to take in the Republican National Convention, and maybe take in a strip club or two. (Republicans spend three times as much as Democrats at strip clubs, but Pauly has ten sex chromosomes — XYXYXYXYXY — and is therefore five times as randy as any human Republican.)
Tampa is a congenial place for a platypus. Platypuses (never “platypi”, as Kory Stamper, whom Pauly calls “Merriam-Webster Babe” will explain) love water. Pauly planned to do lots of swimming in the nearby wetlands and unwind from grueling convention days.
Michael asked Pauly to write the opening Monday convention article, then disaster struck. Literally. Pauly is trapped here, with plenty of wind and lots of water, and the convention has been postponed a day.
What’s a platypus to do? Write a Meme Watch, that’s what.
Pauly hasn’t been posting, but he reads Logarchism religiously. He loves Meme Watch and always dreamed of writing one — and now he gets his chance. His submission follows the jump: (more…)
We’re in a three-week hiatus with no primaries or caucuses, which probably accounts for the punditocracy focusing on the status of the horse — uh, make that elephant — race.
A sure sign that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the nomination all but sewn up: Politico has turned to handicapping the Vice-Presidential slot. Politico’s Maggie Haberman feels former Office of Management and Budget director and current Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) is the favorite.
We at Logarchism like to look at Intrade numbers. As of Friday on Intrade, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is the favorite with a 25 percent chance of securing the VP nomination, followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (11 percent), Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (nine percent), Portman (nine percent), Representative Paul Ryan (R-Janesville, WI) (nine percent), and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (eight percent).
Romney’s Intrade numbers are a virtually certain 96 percent, with none of the other candidates above one percent.
Super Tuesday and the subsequent March 10 and 13 primaries and caucuses clarified one thing: it’s now a two-man race.
Past Stampeding Elephants articles, going back to last May, focused on the Republican field. In that first iteration, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was in first place, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in eighth, and Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) in ninth. Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) did not break the one percent threshold on Intrade to appear in our rankings until our January 5 article, when he debuted in third place.
Now, from an ever-changing field of nine candidates, only two remain, and that’s not a field. Instead, this new version of the series will focus on the delegate math, and the election prospects of Romney, NotRomney, and NotNotRomney, based on Real Clear Politics polling averages, Intrade odds, and head-to-head polling data with President Barack Obama.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
Romney’s Real Clear Politics polling average this week dropped four points to 34 percent, but he still holds a five-point lead over Santorum. On Intrade, he’s holding at an 87 percent chance, unchanged from last week. He has 495 delegates, or 43 percent of the necessary total to clinch the nomination. (Delegate count estimates are from The New York Times via the Associated Press.) He loses to President Obama 48–44 in RCP polling averages for the last nine days.
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Santorum improved in both RCP weekly polling averages (29 percent, up three points) and on Intrade (five percent chance of securing the nomination, up one point). Still, a one-in-twenty chance is nothing to write home about. He has an estimated 252 delegates (22 percent of the needed total), or just about half of the number estimated for Romney. He loses to President Obama 50–42 in averaged polls.
As of late last night, Jeb Bush and Ron Paul are tied with just under two percent on Intrade. More about their chances after the cut.