Posts tagged Republican primary

The 2012 Republican Primary Field

Once a month, we give a run­down of the Repub­li­can field for the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial nomination.

This week saw the first inclu­sive Repub­li­can Pres­i­den­tial pri­mary debate, held June 13 in the key early pri­mary state of New Hamp­shire and hosted by CNN. No polling data has come out since the debate, but Intrade reacted. See below the jump for details.

Rep. Michele Bach­mann announced her can­di­dacy for Fos­ter Mother of the Year and for Pres­i­dent in the same debate. Jon Hunts­man posi­tioned him­self to for­mally throw his hat in the ring next week, though he did not par­tic­i­pate in this week’s debate. Rom­ney cemented his front-​​runner sta­tus, at least among mem­bers of the press. And Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry and for­mer New York City Mayor Rudy Giu­liani made noises like they might run.

I’ve also gath­ered Wednes­day May 18 Intrade prob­a­bil­i­ties for each can­di­date, rounded to the near­est whole number.

I’ll list the poten­tial Repub­li­can can­di­dates after the jump, in order of their Intrade per­cent­ages, from high­est to low­est. In each case, the polling num­bers are given in paren­the­ses after the candidate’s name, rounded to the near­est whole number:

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My Fallow Republicans

Peri­od­i­cally, we’ll give a quick run­down of the Repub­li­can field for the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial nomination.

This week saw two prospec­tive candidates—former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huck­abee and Short-​​Fingered Vul­gar­ian Don­ald Trump—decline to run. They join Mis­sis­sippi Gov­er­nor Haley Bar­bour in the dust­bin of Repub­li­can pri­mary history.

The most recent reli­able poll was done by Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling (PPP) and released May 11. In head-​​to-​​head matchups, Pres­i­dent Obama out­paced all poten­tial Repub­li­can rivals by mar­gins rang­ing from +5% (Obama minus Rom­ney) to +18% (Obama minus Trump). Pres­i­dent Obama’s polling “floor” (that is, those peo­ple who say they would vote for Pauly the Platy­pus over Obama) is prob­a­bly about 33% based on these polling data; even against the weak­est can­di­dates in the Repub­li­can field, Pres­i­dent Obama can­not get much higher than sup­port in the mid-​​50s.

Addi­tion­ally, Nate Sil­ver pub­lished a com­pre­hen­sive run­down on his New York Times blog. At the time he crunched the polling num­bers, both Huck­abee and Trump were still in the race. I’ve adjusted his num­bers by dis­trib­ut­ing the Huck­abee, Trump and “other” vot­ers over the field of 11 most likely can­di­dates. Those are marked “NS” below, with the addi­tional des­ig­na­tor depend­ing on which model is used: NSC for the “clas­si­cal” model, and NSA for the “aggres­sive” model. I’ve rounded to the near­est whole number.

I’ve also gath­ered Wednes­day May 18 Intrade prob­a­bil­i­ties for each can­di­date, rounded to the near­est whole number.

I’ll list the poten­tial Repub­li­can can­di­dates after the jump, in order of their Intrade per­cent­ages, from high­est to low­est. In each case, the polling num­bers are given in paren­the­ses after the candidate’s name:

  • PPP = the May 11 PPP poll
  • TPM = Talk­ing Points Memo esti­mated polling averages
  • RCP = the most recent avail­able Real Clear Pol­i­tics aggre­gated polling data.
  • NSC = Nate Silver’s “clas­si­cal” model
  • NSA = Nate Silver’s “aggres­sive” model
  • In = Intrade Wednes­day May 18

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Huckabee Says “No”

Mike Huck­abee. Source: huck​pac​.com

On his FOX News pro­gram today, for­mer Arkansas Gov­er­nor Mike Huck­abee announced that he will not seek the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion for Pres­i­dent in 2012.

All the fac­tors say go, but my heart says no,” Huck­abee said.

Nate Sil­ver has already antic­i­pated this with a blog post on fivethir​tyeight​.com giv­ing a run­down of who will ben­e­fit from Huckabee’s announce­ment. See side­bar at right.

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