Posts tagged Rick Perry
The Great Sort has begun, as Republican candidates for the 2012 Presidential nomination are carefully examined by voters (or caucusers) and found worthy or wanting.
Just a week ago, in our last rundown, there were six candidates who exceeded our arbitrary viability threshold of one percent on Intrade (that is, Intrade bettors/investors judge they have a better than one in 100 chance of securing the nomination).
We’re now publishing weekly recaps. We started the recaps with a monthly series from June to December 2011. In June, there were 11 candidates and potential candidates judged by Intrade investors to have better than a one percent chance of securing the Republican nomination. Nine candidates met the threshold in July and August. In September, the number dropped to six. October’s rundown bumped up to seven candidates. In November, there were still seven candidates, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the first and second positions, Texas Governor Rick Perry fading fast in third, and Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman tied for fourth. In December, Herman Cain was still in the race, but dropping fast in sixth place, and Representative Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater, MN) in seventh.
As a result of the Iowa caucus fallout and the New Hampshire primary results, Rick Perry (who got only 0.7 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, far behind fifth-place Rick Santorum’s 9.4 percent) fell below the one percent threshold, and so he’s off our list. That leaves five candidates judged viable.
This close to the New Hampshire primary, Real Clear Politics aggregated poll averages are lagging. RCP is currently aggregating polls from January 4 to 10, so the aggregated polls will include the reaction of voters to the Iowa caucuses, but not the New Hampshire primary. However, Intrade investor/bettors have had time to digest and act on the New Hampshire news, so let’s once again focus on those numbers. (more…)
Not many surprises last night. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won, by 17 points, and yet couldn’t break past the 40 percent ceiling. Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) came in a decisive second, followed by former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, whose momentum came too late to be of much help. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) were essentially tied for fourth place, with Texas Governor Rick Perry waaaaay at the back of the line, with a mere one percent of the votes.
Interestingly, the vote count exceeded the 2008 record turnout. Also, Romney received more votes, and a higher percentage, yesterday than did Senator John McCain (R-AZ) in 2008.
There are a few useful data points to come out of the exit polls, so let’s take a look at those. (more…)
Here we are, at the first primary election of the 2012 season. And how do things look today? Let’s run down the candidates, and see where they’re at.
Former New Hampshire Governor Mitt Romney
As most have long suspected, New Hampshire is Mitt Romney country. His history of more moderate Republican stances on policies, coupled with having been Governor of nearby Massachusetts, made him the man to beat from the first day of campaigning.
But it’s not as if he’s going to walk away with a majority of votes. The latest polls show him in the mid-30s. But that’s good enough for a double-digit lead over…
Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX)
I’m well aware that the Live Free or Die State is notoriously contrarian, and that should have clued me in that we were looking at him being a good choice for the runner-up spot.
Nonetheless, Ron Paul has polled in New Hampshire below all of the Ghosts of NotRomneys Past: Representative Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater, MN), Texas Governor Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. For this reason, I didn’t expect us to see Ron Paul in this slot in New Hampshire. From the overall trending, it’s probably because the surge from…
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman
is too late to bring the most liberal of the pack into the second position. Instead, Huntsman is most likely to finish a solid third place. This does not bode well for him, though. New Hampshire is his best shot at building a story of credibility before Super Tuesday. He may be able to do well in Nevada’s caucuses, but the momentum of South Carolina and Florida are not in his favor, particularly with Romney showing a clear lead in both states’ latest polls.
Perhaps his best hope at this point is to build on the story that he has beaten…
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Santorum has been falling as quickly as he rose in Iowa last week, where he (unofficially) beat Romney by a handful of votes. Losing in New Hampshire is not that tragic for him, but he’s in danger in South Carolina and Florida. In both states, he finds himself battling with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for the NotRomney votes. In South Carolina, he’s essentially tied with Gingrich, while he continues to trail in Florida by a nearly double-digit margin. Worse yet, in New Hampshire he is essentially tied with…
Gingrich has seen a small surge in New Hampshire polls of late, making him pretty much tied with Santorum and Huntsman in the race for the third spot. For Gingrich, showing in this race is critical for building a momentum story for South Carolina and Florida, both states within reach. If he comes in third in New Hampshire, and then wins the next two, he could still be considered the leading NotRomney. But would that do more harm than good for the Anyone but Mitt crowd? At least he’s not…
who has found himself bouncing along the bottom of the polls at a whopping one percent. While Perry would certainly like to think of himself as the obvious NotRomney candidate, his polling in South Carolina and Florida is scarcely better than in New Hampshire. His war chest will allow him to hang on until at least as far as the end of the month, when Floridians head to the polls. But his odds are diminishing rapidly, regardless of what happens today in New Hampshire.
So what do you all think will happen today? How will this translate to the next two primaries?
- New Hampshire Primary: Romney Rivals Make Final Appeals Before Vote (huffingtonpost.com)
- New Hampshire primary — live: Mitt Romney fends off attacks (guardian.co.uk)
- New Hampshire: Dash for Second Best (thestreet.com)
- Confident Romney Concerned With Voter Turnout, Not Rivals (huffingtonpost.com)
- A look at the most recent polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina (examiner.com)
- Romney slides 10 points in 5 days in the NH Suffolk poll (hotair.com)
- ‘You Don’t Want To Trap Yourself’ (huffingtonpost.com)
- Poll: Romney on top of field in Florida (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- New Hampshire primary: what to look out for (newstatesman.com)
- One day until New Hampshire votes, Ron Paul fights for the lead (rt.com)
- Romney rivals go after front-runner on primary eve (newsok.com)
- Romney’s ‘I Like Being Able To Fire People’ Comment Gets Rivals’ Attention (boston.cbslocal.com)
From June to December, we gave you a rundown of the Republican field for the 2012 Presidential nomination. These “Stampeding Elephant” features (see image at left) used to come about mid-month. For the next few weeks, or at least until the nominee becomes clear, we plan to update these weekly on Thursdays (weakly stampeding elephants?), as the results from Saturday and Tuesday votes come in and are digested by the punditry.
The Iowa Caucuses didn’t change things much in terms of placement of Republican contenders, though it did whittle the number down by one. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the big beneficiary on Intrade. There is now a 75 point gap between Romney, with an 81 percent chance of winning the nomination, and second-place former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at six percent.
We started the monthly recaps in June with 11 candidates and potential candidates judged by Intrade investors to have better than a one percent chance of securing the Republican nomination. Nine candidates met the one-percent threshold in July and August. In September, the number of maybe-viable candidates dropped to six. October’s rundown had seven candidates at greater than one percent on Intrade. In November, there were still seven candidates, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the first and second positions, Texas Governor Rick Perry fading fast in third, and Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) and Jon Huntsman tied for fourth. Herman Cain was still in the race last month, but dropping fast in sixth place, and Representative Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater, MN) in seventh.
At the time of our last rundown, 21 days ago in mid-December, the “Not Romney” was Gingrich, but his “Not Romney” surge lasted no longer than a month. Former Senator Rick Santorum had the good sense to mount a “Not Romney” surge in late December, just in time for the Iowa Caucuses. That brought him into a tie with Romney (who presumably is unable to mount a “Not Romney” surge). At last report, Romney led by eight votes, 30,015 to 30,007, so I’m comfortable calling that a tie because it’s a margin of 0.0066%, well within the margin of error of any voting system with over 100,000 votes cast.
This close to the caucus, Real Clear Politics aggregated poll averages aren’t going to help us much. RCP is currently aggregating polls from mid-December to January 3, so there hasn’t been time for the aggregated polls to react to the news of the Santorum Surprise. However, Intrade investor/bettors have had time to digest and act on the Iowa news, so let’s once again focus on those numbers. (more…)
The Iowa caucuses are over. Turnout was roughly comparable to four years ago, so there doesn’t seem to be any particular enthusiasm surge over 2008. That was a big year for the Iowa caucuses, but it still led to massive Republican defeat nationally the following November.
The latest polls going into the caucuses had been showing a virtual tie between Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The polls were, for once, pretty accurate.
What do the scores mean for the candidates left in the running? What do they mean for the rest of the primaries and for the general election next November? (more…)
A few days ago, in “A Snowball’s Chance in Iowa”, I said that if Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) were leading in the Iowa polls, then I’d be most inclined to believe he had a real chance of winning, especially compared to then-poll-leader, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. It now looks like the polling has finally caught up with my impressions of the actual situation on the ground. (more…)