Posts tagged Rick Perry

The 2012 Republican Primary Field: January 12, 2012

15
1 year ago
by Monotreme in

The Great Sort has begun, as Repub­li­can can­di­dates for the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial nom­i­na­tion are care­fully exam­ined by vot­ers (or cau­cusers) and found wor­thy or wanting.

Just a week ago, in our last run­down, there were six can­di­dates who exceeded our arbi­trary via­bil­ity thresh­old of one per­cent on Intrade (that is, Intrade bettors/​investors judge they have a bet­ter than one in 100 chance of secur­ing the nomination).

We’re now pub­lish­ing weekly recaps. We started the recaps with a monthly series from June to Decem­ber 2011. In June, there were 11 can­di­dates and poten­tial can­di­dates judged by Intrade investors to have bet­ter than a one per­cent chance of secur­ing the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion. Nine can­di­dates met the thresh­old in July and August. In Sep­tem­ber, the num­ber dropped to six. October’s run­down bumped up to seven can­di­dates. In Novem­ber, there were still seven can­di­dates, with Mitt Rom­ney and Newt Gin­grich in the first and sec­ond posi­tions, Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry fad­ing fast in third, and Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) and for­mer Utah Gov­er­nor Jon Hunts­man tied for fourth. In Decem­ber, Her­man Cain was still in the race, but drop­ping fast in sixth place, and Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Michele Bach­mann (R-​​Stillwater, MN) in seventh.

As a result of the Iowa cau­cus fall­out and the New Hamp­shire pri­mary results, Rick Perry (who got only 0.7 per­cent of the vote in New Hamp­shire, far behind fifth-​​place Rick Santorum’s 9.4 per­cent) fell below the one per­cent thresh­old, and so he’s off our list. That leaves five can­di­dates judged viable.

This close to the New Hamp­shire pri­mary, Real Clear Pol­i­tics aggre­gated poll aver­ages are lag­ging. RCP is cur­rently aggre­gat­ing polls from Jan­u­ary 4 to 10, so the aggre­gated polls will include the reac­tion of vot­ers to the Iowa cau­cuses, but not the New Hamp­shire pri­mary. How­ever, Intrade investor/​bettors have had time to digest and act on the New Hamp­shire news, so let’s once again focus on those num­bers. (more…)

New Hampshire Primary Results

103
1 year ago
by Logarchism.com in

A happy Mitt Rom­ney waves good­bye to New Hampshire

Not many sur­prises last night. For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney won, by 17 points, and yet couldn’t break past the 40 per­cent ceil­ing. Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) came in a deci­sive sec­ond, fol­lowed by for­mer Utah Gov­er­nor Jon Hunts­man, whose momen­tum came too late to be of much help. For­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich and For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA) were essen­tially tied for fourth place, with Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry waaaaay at the back of the line, with a mere one per­cent of the votes.

Inter­est­ingly, the vote count exceeded the 2008 record turnout. Also, Rom­ney received more votes, and a higher per­cent­age, yes­ter­day than did Sen­a­tor John McCain (R-​​AZ) in 2008.

There are a few use­ful data points to come out of the exit polls, so let’s take a look at those. (more…)

New Hampshire Primary Preview

50
1 year ago
by Michael Weiss in

Here we are, at the first pri­mary elec­tion of the 2012 sea­son. And how do things look today? Let’s run down the can­di­dates, and see where they’re at.

For­mer New Hamp­shire Gov­er­nor Mitt Romney

As most have long sus­pected, New Hamp­shire is Mitt Rom­ney coun­try. His his­tory of more mod­er­ate Repub­li­can stances on poli­cies, cou­pled with hav­ing been Gov­er­nor of nearby Mass­a­chu­setts, made him the man to beat from the first day of campaigning.

But it’s not as if he’s going to walk away with a major­ity of votes. The lat­est polls show him in the mid-​​30s. But that’s good enough for a double-​​digit lead over…

Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX)

I’m well aware that the Live Free or Die State is noto­ri­ously con­trar­ian, and that should have clued me in that we were look­ing at him being a good choice for the runner-​​up spot.

Nonethe­less, Ron Paul has polled in New Hamp­shire below all of the Ghosts of NotRom­neys Past: Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Michele Bach­mann (R-​​Stillwater, MN), Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry, Her­man Cain, and Newt Gin­grich. For this rea­son, I didn’t expect us to see Ron Paul in this slot in New Hamp­shire. From the over­all trend­ing, it’s prob­a­bly because the surge from…

For­mer Utah Gov­er­nor Jon Huntsman

is too late to bring the most lib­eral of the pack into the sec­ond posi­tion. Instead, Hunts­man is most likely to fin­ish a solid third place. This does not bode well for him, though. New Hamp­shire is his best shot at build­ing a story of cred­i­bil­ity before Super Tues­day. He may be able to do well in Nevada’s cau­cuses, but the momen­tum of South Car­olina and Florida are not in his favor, par­tic­u­larly with Rom­ney show­ing a clear lead in both states’ lat­est polls.

Per­haps his best hope at this point is to build on the story that he has beaten…

For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA)

San­to­rum has been falling as quickly as he rose in Iowa last week, where he (unof­fi­cially) beat Rom­ney by a hand­ful of votes. Los­ing in New Hamp­shire is not that tragic for him, but he’s in dan­ger in South Car­olina and Florida. In both states, he finds him­self bat­tling with for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich for the NotRom­ney votes. In South Car­olina, he’s essen­tially tied with Gin­grich, while he con­tin­ues to trail in Florida by a nearly double-​​digit mar­gin. Worse yet, in New Hamp­shire he is essen­tially tied with…

Newt Gin­grich

Gin­grich has seen a small surge in New Hamp­shire polls of late, mak­ing him pretty much tied with San­to­rum and Hunts­man in the race for the third spot. For Gin­grich, show­ing in this race is crit­i­cal for build­ing a momen­tum story for South Car­olina and Florida, both states within reach. If he comes in third in New Hamp­shire, and then wins the next two, he could still be con­sid­ered the lead­ing NotRom­ney. But would that do more harm than good for the Any­one but Mitt crowd? At least he’s not…

Rick Perry

who has found him­self bounc­ing along the bot­tom of the polls at a whop­ping one per­cent. While Perry would cer­tainly like to think of him­self as the obvi­ous NotRom­ney can­di­date, his polling in South Car­olina and Florida is scarcely bet­ter than in New Hamp­shire. His war chest will allow him to hang on until at least as far as the end of the month, when Florid­i­ans head to the polls. But his odds are dimin­ish­ing rapidly, regard­less of what hap­pens today in New Hampshire.

So what do you all think will hap­pen today? How will this trans­late to the next two primaries?

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The 2012 Republican Primary Field: January 5, 2012

34
1 year ago
by Monotreme in

From June to Decem­ber, we gave you a run­down of the Repub­li­can field for the 2012 Pres­i­den­tial nom­i­na­tion. These “Stam­ped­ing Ele­phant” fea­tures (see image at left) used to come about mid-​​month. For the next few weeks, or at least until the nom­i­nee becomes clear, we plan to update these weekly on Thurs­days (weakly stam­ped­ing ele­phants?), as the results from Sat­ur­day and Tues­day votes come in and are digested by the punditry.

The Iowa Cau­cuses didn’t change things much in terms of place­ment of Repub­li­can con­tenders, though it did whit­tle the num­ber down by one. For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney was the big ben­e­fi­ciary on Intrade. There is now a 75 point gap between Rom­ney, with an 81 per­cent chance of win­ning the nom­i­na­tion, and second-​​place for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich, at six percent.

We started the monthly recaps in June with 11 can­di­dates and poten­tial can­di­dates judged by Intrade investors to have bet­ter than a one per­cent chance of secur­ing the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion. Nine can­di­dates met the one-​​percent thresh­old in July and August. In Sep­tem­ber, the num­ber of maybe-​​viable can­di­dates dropped to six. October’s run­down had seven can­di­dates at greater than one per­cent on Intrade. In Novem­ber, there were still seven can­di­dates, with Mitt Rom­ney and Newt Gin­grich in the first and sec­ond posi­tions, Texas Gov­er­nor Rick Perry fad­ing fast in third, and Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) and Jon Hunts­man tied for fourth. Her­man Cain was still in the race last month, but drop­ping fast in sixth place, and Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Michele Bach­mann (R-​​Stillwater, MN) in seventh.

At the time of our last run­down, 21 days ago in mid-​​December, the “Not Rom­ney” was Gin­grich, but his “Not Rom­ney” surge lasted no longer than a month. For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum had the good sense to mount a “Not Rom­ney” surge in late Decem­ber, just in time for the Iowa Cau­cuses. That brought him into a tie with Rom­ney (who pre­sum­ably is unable to mount a “Not Rom­ney” surge). At last report, Rom­ney led by eight votes, 30,015 to 30,007, so I’m com­fort­able call­ing that a tie because it’s a mar­gin of 0.0066%, well within the mar­gin of error of any vot­ing sys­tem with over 100,000 votes cast.

This close to the cau­cus, Real Clear Pol­i­tics aggre­gated poll aver­ages aren’t going to help us much. RCP is cur­rently aggre­gat­ing polls from mid-​​December to Jan­u­ary 3, so there hasn’t been time for the aggre­gated polls to react to the news of the San­to­rum Sur­prise. How­ever, Intrade investor/​bettors have had time to digest and act on the Iowa news, so let’s once again focus on those num­bers.  (more…)

Last Jenga Standing

71
1 year ago
by dcpetterson in , ,

They’re Num­ber One!

The Iowa cau­cuses are over. Turnout was roughly com­pa­ra­ble to four years ago, so there doesn’t seem to be any par­tic­u­lar enthu­si­asm surge over 2008. That was a big year for the Iowa cau­cuses, but it still led to mas­sive Repub­li­can defeat nation­ally the fol­low­ing November.

The lat­est polls going into the cau­cuses had been show­ing a vir­tual tie between Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX), for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA), and for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney. The polls were, for once, pretty accurate.

What do the scores mean for the can­di­dates left in the run­ning? What do they mean for the rest of the pri­maries and for the gen­eral elec­tion next Novem­ber? (more…)

Snowball’s Chances Getting Warmer

6
1 year ago
by mclever in

I know why this man is smiling.

A few days ago, in “A Snowball’s Chance in Iowa”, I said that if Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) were lead­ing in the Iowa polls, then I’d be most inclined to believe he had a real chance of win­ning, espe­cially com­pared to then-​​poll-​​leader, for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich. It now looks like the polling has finally caught up with my impres­sions of the actual sit­u­a­tion on the ground. (more…)

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