Posts tagged Ron Paul
In December, Republican Party Chair Reince “and repeat” Priebus embarked on a reëxamination of the party’s future. He commissioned an “autopsy” of the party’s electoral failings.
The report is formally called the Growth and Opportunity Project.
According to Politico’s Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman, the report has triggered the oft-avoided civil war the Republican Party has been fearing. (more…)
Today marks the second official day of the Republican National Convention, but the first where anything of significance happens. Mitt Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said, “if it doesn’t happen in prime time, it doesn’t happen.” That being the case, it’s a good thing yesterday’s activities were canceled; the networks said they weren’t going to carry the prime time speeches anyway, which would have left First Lady hopeful Ann Romney effectively on the cutting room floor. Now she gets a prime time slot tonight.
Representative Ron Paul (R-Port Jackson, TX) will not be speaking at this convention, despite having a significant number of delegates (who may not be seated). He refused to endorse presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, though, and wouldn’t allow his speech to be vetted by Romney’s crew, so he was denied a speaking slot. Instead, a speech has essentially been grafted onto him, in the form of a video “tribute” to Ron Paul, to be shown tomorrow. (more…)
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is throwing in the towel, according to inside sources. The only surprise for most of us is that it took so long for him to see the writing on the wall.
Personally, I suspect he thought he had a chance to return as the only remaining NotRomney in the race. [Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) doesn’t really count, since he’s more of a Walrus than an Elephant.] But after throwing all of his chips in on Delaware, and still coming up with fewer than half the votes former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney received, even one as megalomaniacal as Newt could see that he has no hope.
And so we are officially down to two candidates: a RINO (wearing an Elephant suit) and a Walrus. But we already knew that we were down to one real candidate.
Sooooo…how ’bout them Veepstakes?
- Newt Gingrich ends presidential bid(wjla.com)
- Newt’s campaign over? Reports suggest Gingrich will drop out Tuesday (shortformblog.com)
We’re in a three-week hiatus with no primaries or caucuses, which probably accounts for the punditocracy focusing on the status of the horse — uh, make that elephant — race.
A sure sign that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the nomination all but sewn up: Politico has turned to handicapping the Vice-Presidential slot. Politico’s Maggie Haberman feels former Office of Management and Budget director and current Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) is the favorite.
We at Logarchism like to look at Intrade numbers. As of Friday on Intrade, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is the favorite with a 25 percent chance of securing the VP nomination, followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (11 percent), Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (nine percent), Portman (nine percent), Representative Paul Ryan (R-Janesville, WI) (nine percent), and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (eight percent).
Romney’s Intrade numbers are a virtually certain 96 percent, with none of the other candidates above one percent.
It’s caucus time in Missouri. You remember Missouri, don’t you? This was the state that had the beauty contest a month ago, which former Senator Rick Santorum won handily, as part of his sweep of states for the day, which included wins over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in Colorado and Minnesota. It was that hat trick that turned Santorum from a distant also-ran into the leading NotRomney candidate, a position he has retained every day since.
Today, though, the “Show Me” state is holding caucuses. Nonbinding caucuses, at that, which is the favorite flavor of Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX). For the most part, everyone outside of Missouri has abandoned the state, focusing instead on the next battleground of Illinois, which holds its primary on Tuesday. Intrade has no market on today’s outcome, and there are no recent polls of potential caucus attendees.
One key reason for this is that the Missouri Republican Party is releasing zero results. (more…)
Super Tuesday and the subsequent March 10 and 13 primaries and caucuses clarified one thing: it’s now a two-man race.
Past Stampeding Elephants articles, going back to last May, focused on the Republican field. In that first iteration, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was in first place, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in eighth, and Representative Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson, TX) in ninth. Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) did not break the one percent threshold on Intrade to appear in our rankings until our January 5 article, when he debuted in third place.
Now, from an ever-changing field of nine candidates, only two remain, and that’s not a field. Instead, this new version of the series will focus on the delegate math, and the election prospects of Romney, NotRomney, and NotNotRomney, based on Real Clear Politics polling averages, Intrade odds, and head-to-head polling data with President Barack Obama.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
Romney’s Real Clear Politics polling average this week dropped four points to 34 percent, but he still holds a five-point lead over Santorum. On Intrade, he’s holding at an 87 percent chance, unchanged from last week. He has 495 delegates, or 43 percent of the necessary total to clinch the nomination. (Delegate count estimates are from The New York Times via the Associated Press.) He loses to President Obama 48–44 in RCP polling averages for the last nine days.
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Santorum improved in both RCP weekly polling averages (29 percent, up three points) and on Intrade (five percent chance of securing the nomination, up one point). Still, a one-in-twenty chance is nothing to write home about. He has an estimated 252 delegates (22 percent of the needed total), or just about half of the number estimated for Romney. He loses to President Obama 50–42 in averaged polls.
As of late last night, Jeb Bush and Ron Paul are tied with just under two percent on Intrade. More about their chances after the cut.