Posts tagged Ron Paul

This Grand Old Project

35
2 months ago
by Monotreme in
Shooting the messenger.

Shoot­ing the messenger.

In Decem­ber, Repub­li­can Party Chair Reince “and repeat” Priebus embarked on a reëx­am­i­na­tion of the party’s future. He com­mis­sioned an “autopsy” of the party’s elec­toral failings.

The report is for­mally called the Growth and Oppor­tu­nity Project.

(Get it…GOP! Pretty spiffy mar­ket­ing twist there, don’t you think? We hired the same guy who named New Coke and Orca.)

Accord­ing to Politico’s Jonathan Mar­tin and Mag­gie Haber­man, the report has trig­gered the oft-​​avoided civil war the Repub­li­can Party has been fear­ing. (more…)

Republican Convention: Day 2

321
8 months ago
by Michael Weiss in

Today marks the sec­ond offi­cial day of the Repub­li­can National Con­ven­tion, but the first where any­thing of sig­nif­i­cance hap­pens. Mitt Rom­ney poll­ster Neil New­house said, “if it doesn’t hap­pen in prime time, it doesn’t hap­pen.” That being the case, it’s a good thing yesterday’s activ­i­ties were can­celed; the net­works said they weren’t going to carry the prime time speeches any­way, which would have left First Lady hope­ful Ann Rom­ney effec­tively on the cut­ting room floor. Now she gets a prime time slot tonight.

Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Port Jack­son, TX) will not be speak­ing at this con­ven­tion, despite hav­ing a sig­nif­i­cant num­ber of del­e­gates (who may not be seated). He refused to endorse pre­sump­tive nom­i­nee Mitt Rom­ney, though, and wouldn’t allow his speech to be vet­ted by Romney’s crew, so he was denied a speak­ing slot. Instead, a speech has essen­tially been grafted onto him, in the form of a video “trib­ute” to Ron Paul, to be shown tomor­row. (more…)

Nay of Newt

10
1 year ago
by Michael Weiss in

For­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich is throw­ing in the towel, accord­ing to inside sources. The only sur­prise for most of us is that it took so long for him to see the writ­ing on the wall.

Per­son­ally, I sus­pect he thought he had a chance to return as the only remain­ing NotRom­ney in the race. [Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) doesn’t really count, since he’s more of a Wal­rus than an Ele­phant.] But after throw­ing all of his chips in on Delaware, and still com­ing up with fewer than half the votes for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney received, even one as mega­lo­ma­ni­a­cal as Newt could see that he has no hope.

The RINO stands alone.

And so we are offi­cially down to two can­di­dates: a RINO (wear­ing an Ele­phant suit) and a Wal­rus. But we already knew that we were down to one real candidate.

Sooooo…how ’bout them Veepstakes?

Related arti­cles

Republican Delegate Counts: April 7

25
1 year ago
by Monotreme in

One big ele­phant and two lit­tle ones. The wal­rus is Paul.

We’re in a three-​​week hia­tus with no pri­maries or cau­cuses, which prob­a­bly accounts for the pun­di­toc­racy focus­ing on the sta­tus of the horse — uh, make that ele­phant — race.

A sure sign that for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney has the nom­i­na­tion all but sewn up: Politico has turned to hand­i­cap­ping the Vice-​​Presidential slot. Politico’s Mag­gie Haber­man feels for­mer Office of Man­age­ment and Bud­get direc­tor and cur­rent Sen­a­tor Rob Port­man (R-​​OH) is the favorite.

We at Log­a­rchism like to look at Intrade num­bers. As of Fri­day on Intrade, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-​​FL) is the favorite with a 25 per­cent chance of secur­ing the VP nom­i­na­tion, fol­lowed by New Jer­sey Gov­er­nor Chris Christie (11 per­cent), Vir­ginia Gov­er­nor Bob McDon­nell (nine per­cent), Port­man (nine per­cent), Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Paul Ryan (R-​​Janesville, WI) (nine per­cent), and New Mex­ico Gov­er­nor Susana Mar­tinez (eight percent).

Romney’s Intrade num­bers are a vir­tu­ally cer­tain 96 per­cent, with none of the other can­di­dates above one percent.

To see the rea­son why, exam­ine the graph of del­e­gate counts (data cour­tesy of The New York Times/​Associated Press), after the jump. (more…)

Don’t Show Me

8
1 year ago
by Michael Weiss in

It’s cau­cus time in Mis­souri. You remem­ber Mis­souri, don’t you? This was the state that had the beauty con­test a month ago, which for­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum won hand­ily, as part of his sweep of states for the day, which included wins over for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney in Col­orado and Min­nesota. It was that hat trick that turned San­to­rum from a dis­tant also-​​ran into the lead­ing NotRom­ney can­di­date, a posi­tion he has retained every day since.

Today, though, the “Show Me” state is hold­ing cau­cuses. Non­bind­ing cau­cuses, at that, which is the favorite fla­vor of Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX). For the most part, every­one out­side of Mis­souri has aban­doned the state, focus­ing instead on the next bat­tle­ground of Illi­nois, which holds its pri­mary on Tues­day. Intrade has no mar­ket on today’s out­come, and there are no recent polls of poten­tial cau­cus attendees.

One key rea­son for this is that the Mis­souri Repub­li­can Party is releas­ing zero results. (more…)

Republican Delegate Counts: March 15

11
1 year ago
by Monotreme in

Two Ele­phants Cross­wise to Each Other

Super Tues­day and the sub­se­quent March 10 and 13 pri­maries and cau­cuses clar­i­fied one thing: it’s now a two-​​man race.

Past Stam­ped­ing Ele­phants arti­cles, going back to last May, focused on the Repub­li­can field. In that first iter­a­tion, for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Rom­ney was in first place, for­mer House Speaker Newt Gin­grich in eighth, and Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Ron Paul (R-​​Lake Jack­son, TX) in ninth. For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA) did not break the one per­cent thresh­old on Intrade to appear in our rank­ings until our Jan­u­ary 5 arti­cle, when he debuted in third place.

Now, from an ever-​​changing field of nine can­di­dates, only two remain, and that’s not a field. Instead, this new ver­sion of the series will focus on the del­e­gate math, and the elec­tion prospects of Rom­ney, NotRom­ney, and Not­NotRom­ney, based on Real Clear Pol­i­tics polling aver­ages, Intrade odds, and head-​​to-​​head polling data with Pres­i­dent Barack Obama.

For­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov­er­nor Mitt Romney

Romney’s Real Clear Pol­i­tics polling aver­age this week dropped four points to 34 per­cent, but he still holds a five-​​point lead over San­to­rum. On Intrade, he’s hold­ing at an 87 per­cent chance, unchanged from last week. He has 495 del­e­gates, or 43 per­cent of the nec­es­sary total to clinch the nom­i­na­tion. (Del­e­gate count esti­mates are from The New York Times via the Asso­ci­ated Press.) He loses to Pres­i­dent Obama 48–44 in RCP polling aver­ages for the last nine days.

For­mer Sen­a­tor Rick San­to­rum (R-​​PA)

San­to­rum improved in both RCP weekly polling aver­ages (29 per­cent, up three points) and on Intrade (five per­cent chance of secur­ing the nom­i­na­tion, up one point). Still, a one-​​in-​​twenty chance is noth­ing to write home about. He has an esti­mated 252 del­e­gates (22 per­cent of the needed total), or just about half of the num­ber esti­mated for Rom­ney. He loses to Pres­i­dent Obama 50–42 in aver­aged polls.

As of late last night, Jeb Bush and Ron Paul are tied with just under two per­cent on Intrade. More about their chances after the cut.

(more…)

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